SI
SI
discoversearch

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor.  We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community.  If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

   PoliticsFormerly About Applied Materials


Previous 10 Next 10 
To: Cary Salsberg who wrote (60900)2/22/2002 2:47:38 PM
From: Jacob Snyder
   of 70976
 
Sorry I wasn't clear. Those two opinions are different time frames.

On a time frame of weeks to a few months, I am bullish. I think this current dip (6 weeks old) doesn't take out the 10/01 lows. Then, IMO, we will go on, and sometime this summer, take out the January 2002 high (Nas 2100). I am using margin now, following my policy of buy-the-dip/sell-the-rally. I'm guessing we're now close enough to the bottom of this intermediate-term dip, to be safely using margin. I will get off margin quickly, in the following rebound,as I did last October.

On a longer time frame (many months to a few years), I think we have not seen capitulation in the telecom/internet sector, including their equip suppliers. Notice, this opinion is not a market call. It's specifically about telecom/internet (a large sector, but not the whole market). To a certain extent, we are already seeing this. WCOM has recently taken out its 2001 low, while the Nas and S&P 500 are still well above those lows.

Am I being clear now?

Share RecommendKeepReplyMark as Last ReadRead Replies (1)


To: Sam Citron who wrote (60891)2/22/2002 3:08:45 PM
From: Paul V.
   of 70976
 
Sam, I missed Gilder. What did he have to say/

Paul

Share RecommendKeepReplyMark as Last ReadRead Replies (1)


To: Cary Salsberg who wrote (60900)2/22/2002 3:23:41 PM
From: Paul V.
   of 70976
 
Cary, Jacob is being flexible, just like this market. :) At least he is not buying bonds, Bank, Precious metal, Riets, or savings in loans.<ggg>

Share RecommendKeepReplyMark as Last Read


To: Tito L. Nisperos Jr. who wrote (60782)2/22/2002 3:24:41 PM
From: Tito L. Nisperos Jr.
   of 70976
 
AMAT YoYo Demo --- For the YoYo Catch in March.

2/22/02 Bought AMAT 20 Calls Mar 42.50 @ 3.10/sh

Share RecommendKeepReplyMark as Last ReadRead Replies (2)


To: Tito L. Nisperos Jr. who wrote (60905)2/22/2002 3:51:02 PM
From: Paul V.
   of 70976
 
Tito, With AMAT hitting $42 today it hit right on the DW bull support line, also a double bottom. It will be interesting to see if it breaks below it, Monday. How many more tries do you think it will take before it takes out the $48 triple top. After it breaks the $48 it appears the next resistance is at $50. This is where Jacob is planning to sell. Amat is forming a good Dw base. IMO, I see this puppy in a trading range until the SEMI bookings and possibly the next earnings report.

Paul

Share RecommendKeepReplyMark as Last ReadRead Replies (1)


To: StanX Long who wrote (60896)2/22/2002 4:07:39 PM
From: Katherine Derbyshire
   of 70976
 
>>Ask one of my many friend that was laid off and have yet to find a job, how soft this feels?<<

Exactly my point. I've got friends in that situation, too.

Still, as bad as it is, there's historical precedent for it to be a whole lot worse.

Katherine

Share RecommendKeepReplyMark as Last Read


To: Jacob Snyder who wrote (60898)2/22/2002 4:12:44 PM
From: Katherine Derbyshire
   of 70976
 
>>I suppose you could argue that we'll see the Bubble deflated in steps, like a balloon with a tiny intermittent pinhole in it. But there is no historical precedent for that. <<

I suspect that's exactly what Greenspan is trying to do. Perhaps he's betting that letting the bubble deflate slowly will give productivity gains and so forth time to bring intrinsic value up. Thus stabilizing valuations at some reasonable level.

It's too soon to say if he'll be able to pull it off.

Katherine

Share RecommendKeepReplyMark as Last Read


To: willcousa who wrote (60854)2/22/2002 4:14:20 PM
From: mitch-c
   of 70976
 
OT - wireless networking

That's kind of the pattern I envision for eventual (wireless) last-mile buildout. Right now, cell towers are expensive aggregators, and the cellphone "network" follows roughly the lines of mainframe/dumb terminal computing. The "dumb" peripherals ask the central node for a timeshare, but don't negotiate it among themselves.

When a "distributed processing" model hits, in which your home "base station" antenna helps not only you connect, but stands in as a (redundant) relay hop for your neighbors' antennas, then TCP/IP routing can work much the same as it does over wire - pick the most responsive path and use it.

- Mitch

Share RecommendKeepReplyMark as Last Read


To: Paul V. who wrote (60906)2/22/2002 4:41:50 PM
From: Tito L. Nisperos Jr.
   of 70976
 
Paul V,
AMAT usually hurdles a major Bar of resistance like 50 on its 4th try (the 3rd and 4th usually just days apart). We have gone as high as 48 twice already. The Nasdaq needs to come back from its current slump though, in order for AMAT to trade above 50.

If it's not time yet to enter a higher YoYo range, at least by buying some now near the Drop and selling later above 46 near the Catch is profitable.

Share RecommendKeepReplyMark as Last Read


To: Paul V. who wrote (60903)2/22/2002 5:47:34 PM
From: Sam Citron
   of 70976
 
OT What Gilder said:

Missed the first 10 minutes of the 1 hour Brian Lamb-hosted call-in show (people's interview) thanks to buggy PVR 501 Linux software from Echostar (wish they had just licensed Tivo's software). This was C-Span Washington Journal so a good portion of it was Gilder's political views. How socialism thrives on envy. How Guiliani cleaned up Central Park. How Enron bankruptcy was a victory for capitalism. How Massachusetts is damaged by excessive taxes in spite of well endowed tech base. How Michael Kelley's Atlantic Monthly article about the death of the American Spectator Magazine got it wrong. How he lost $300K on Global Crossing, one of the "great companies of the era" which lost big due to the debt crunch. How David Gerlertner is a genius. gilder.com
How "last mile" deregulation would cause an efflorescence of creativity. How the advertising model is broken. How bandwidth is lying fallow due to lack of last mile connectivity to the home. How one half million people are exploiting the pain and illness of a few thousand asbestos victims. How fiberoptics has not lost its promise in spite of the telecom bankruptcies caused by the insidious effects of deflation on debtors. How our tax code needs drastic reform and simplification.

If we both had ReplayTV 4000s I could just zap you the Gilder interview over the net. sonicblue.com
Wouldn't that be fun? [disclosure: no position in SBLU]

Edit: Watch it for yourself: c-span.org

Share RecommendKeepReplyMark as Last Read
Previous 10 Next 10