SI
SI
discoversearch

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor.  We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community.  If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

   PoliticsFormerly About Applied Materials


Previous 10 Next 10 
To: Paul V. who wrote (60903)2/22/2002 5:47:34 PM
From: Sam Citron
   of 70976
 
OT What Gilder said:

Missed the first 10 minutes of the 1 hour Brian Lamb-hosted call-in show (people's interview) thanks to buggy PVR 501 Linux software from Echostar (wish they had just licensed Tivo's software). This was C-Span Washington Journal so a good portion of it was Gilder's political views. How socialism thrives on envy. How Guiliani cleaned up Central Park. How Enron bankruptcy was a victory for capitalism. How Massachusetts is damaged by excessive taxes in spite of well endowed tech base. How Michael Kelley's Atlantic Monthly article about the death of the American Spectator Magazine got it wrong. How he lost $300K on Global Crossing, one of the "great companies of the era" which lost big due to the debt crunch. How David Gerlertner is a genius. gilder.com
How "last mile" deregulation would cause an efflorescence of creativity. How the advertising model is broken. How bandwidth is lying fallow due to lack of last mile connectivity to the home. How one half million people are exploiting the pain and illness of a few thousand asbestos victims. How fiberoptics has not lost its promise in spite of the telecom bankruptcies caused by the insidious effects of deflation on debtors. How our tax code needs drastic reform and simplification.

If we both had ReplayTV 4000s I could just zap you the Gilder interview over the net. sonicblue.com
Wouldn't that be fun? [disclosure: no position in SBLU]

Edit: Watch it for yourself: c-span.org

Share RecommendKeepReplyMark as Last Read


To: StanX Long who wrote (60896)2/23/2002 12:40:47 AM
From: StanX Long
   of 70976
 
MaxPain just updated.

AMAT Mar'02 $47.50.

Stan

ez-pnf.com

Share RecommendKeepReplyMark as Last Read


To: Jacob Snyder who wrote (60902)2/23/2002 2:30:55 AM
From: Cary Salsberg
   of 70976
 
I believe the "telecom/internet sector, including their equip suppliers" are the key drivers for most of the semi and therefore semi-equip companies. I agree it is not a "market call", but it sounds like a technology call.

I tend to disagree with your opinions. The current market dip has been driven by telecom disappointment and belief that the time frame for both inventory correction and the beginning of secular growth is being pushed out. The sector is pretty close to 2001 lows and some of the comm IC semis have retraced most of the gain since the lows. I have already seen semi improvements attributed to inventory "snapback" and concern voiced that they may not be sustainable. I realize that technically the stocks should move up, but I have not seen strong sentiment that we are retreating from a bear market rally. I think the real danger to prices is in the next 6 months to a year when the recovery will look very uncertain and visibility will dim. A few years out, technological innovation will overcome financial problems and these stock will make significant moves higher. Inventory problems will be a thing of the past and a new secular upturn driven by new technology parameters will have begun.

I am beginning to be afraid that this down move will not end until the quality, dare I say it, AMAT, ASML, KLAC, NVLS, ALTR, XLNX, LLTC, MXIM, joins the crowd and starts looking scary to the downside. If that happens, I will try to get fully invested for the long term.

Share RecommendKeepReplyMark as Last ReadRead Replies (2)


To: Jacob Snyder who wrote (60898)2/23/2002 9:54:16 AM
From: orkrious
   of 70976
 
IMO, the Fed has done little to decrease the excesses of the Bubble. By contrast, they have aggressively lowered rates and increased liquidity, to avoid a (worse) downturn.

Fleck certainly agrees with you. Read the latest Rap.

grantsinvestor.com

Share RecommendKeepReplyMark as Last Read


To: Cary Salsberg who wrote (60913)2/23/2002 9:58:06 AM
From: orkrious
   of 70976
 
am beginning to be afraid that this down move will not end until the quality, dare I say it, AMAT, ASML, KLAC, NVLS, ALTR, XLNX, LLTC, MXIM, joins the crowd and starts looking scary to the downside

Cary, you are absolutely right. In fact, instead of being "richly" valued, these stocks will become richly undervalued, considerably below their Sept lows. Then it will be time to back up the truck for another rally.

ork

Share RecommendKeepReplyMark as Last ReadRead Replies (2)


To: orkrious who wrote (60915)2/23/2002 11:32:53 AM
From: Lone Star
   of 70976
 
Yes, but will that happen? As someone who likes to buy the amat's of the world at a good value, then hold for 5+ years I have waited patiently for this sector to wind down, but so far...

Share RecommendKeepReplyMark as Last ReadRead Replies (1)


To: Lone Star who wrote (60916)2/23/2002 11:45:53 AM
From: orkrious
   of 70976
 
Yes, but will that happen?

Bear markets take every stock down, it just takes longer for some than others. The semi equips are some of the last still standing. My guess is their decent will be rapid.

Share RecommendKeepReplyMark as Last Read


To: orkrious who wrote (60915)2/23/2002 12:37:45 PM
From: Cary Salsberg
   of 70976
 
I stongly disagree that these will become "richly undervalued" or "below their Sept lows."

I think "scary" will still stop above Sept lows and that will not be even undervalued, certainly not "richly."

We have the proverbial greed/fear equation here. There are very few quality companies and these are the best. They are not immune to huge problems in the technology industry, but they will not suffer as much and will lead and prosper greatly from any recovery. I believe that the market has recognized their quality by their high valuations. Quality always breaks down last to levels above the "bargains" reached by most, leads the upturn, and outperforms most others over time.

If you didn't back up the truck at the bottom last Sept, you will get another chance at higher prices. ALTR and XLNX have been and are the most vulnerable because they are the most directly related to comm fortunes.

Share RecommendKeepReplyMark as Last ReadRead Replies (3)


To: Cary Salsberg who wrote (60918)2/23/2002 2:34:07 PM
From: Jacob Snyder
   of 70976
 
Excellent interview on the telecom sector:

Message 17103000

Share RecommendKeepReplyMark as Last ReadRead Replies (1)


To: Jacob Snyder who wrote (60919)2/23/2002 4:38:02 PM
From: Cary Salsberg
   of 70976
 
It was a little sobering. It supports my basic view of risk which has me placing only 12% of net assets and 22% of liquid assets into my brokerage accounts. (Numbers have been raised recently from 9% and 16%)

The new money coming in raises me from ~19% to ~37% cash. I am supposed to come up with a plan to commit this cash to my favorite 8 this weekend.

Share RecommendKeepReplyMark as Last Read
Previous 10 Next 10