| From: runes | 2/22/2002 2:40:36 PM | | | | | | OK - now we have NAS 1700 and only one week left in February.
...which also means that we have fallen back to the level that the market was at the day before 9-11. The difference is that then the economy was getting worse, now it is getting better.
....There should be good resistance at 1700 and that will (hopefully) stabilize the market. Lot of economic numbers next week but most likely these will reflect slow but steady improvement.
...The big event for semi equips will be NVLS mid quarter earnings report on the 28th (Thursday). I expect that they will reiterate that the quarter is on track, that orders have picked up enough to offset dropping deferred revenue from SAB101, and that they are still looking for the recovery to pick up by the end of the year.
...Nibble time has begun... |
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| To: Cary Salsberg who wrote (60900) | 2/22/2002 2:47:38 PM | | From: Jacob Snyder | | | | Sorry I wasn't clear. Those two opinions are different time frames.
On a time frame of weeks to a few months, I am bullish. I think this current dip (6 weeks old) doesn't take out the 10/01 lows. Then, IMO, we will go on, and sometime this summer, take out the January 2002 high (Nas 2100). I am using margin now, following my policy of buy-the-dip/sell-the-rally. I'm guessing we're now close enough to the bottom of this intermediate-term dip, to be safely using margin. I will get off margin quickly, in the following rebound,as I did last October.
On a longer time frame (many months to a few years), I think we have not seen capitulation in the telecom/internet sector, including their equip suppliers. Notice, this opinion is not a market call. It's specifically about telecom/internet (a large sector, but not the whole market). To a certain extent, we are already seeing this. WCOM has recently taken out its 2001 low, while the Nas and S&P 500 are still well above those lows.
Am I being clear now? |
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| To: Cary Salsberg who wrote (60900) | 2/22/2002 3:23:41 PM | | From: Paul V. | | | | | Cary, Jacob is being flexible, just like this market. :) At least he is not buying bonds, Bank, Precious metal, Riets, or savings in loans.<ggg> |
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| To: Tito L. Nisperos Jr. who wrote (60905) | 2/22/2002 3:51:02 PM | | From: Paul V. | | | | Tito, With AMAT hitting $42 today it hit right on the DW bull support line, also a double bottom. It will be interesting to see if it breaks below it, Monday. How many more tries do you think it will take before it takes out the $48 triple top. After it breaks the $48 it appears the next resistance is at $50. This is where Jacob is planning to sell. Amat is forming a good Dw base. IMO, I see this puppy in a trading range until the SEMI bookings and possibly the next earnings report.
Paul |
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| To: StanX Long who wrote (60896) | 2/22/2002 4:07:39 PM | | From: Katherine Derbyshire | | | | >>Ask one of my many friend that was laid off and have yet to find a job, how soft this feels?<<
Exactly my point. I've got friends in that situation, too.
Still, as bad as it is, there's historical precedent for it to be a whole lot worse.
Katherine |
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| To: Jacob Snyder who wrote (60898) | 2/22/2002 4:12:44 PM | | From: Katherine Derbyshire | | | | >>I suppose you could argue that we'll see the Bubble deflated in steps, like a balloon with a tiny intermittent pinhole in it. But there is no historical precedent for that. <<
I suspect that's exactly what Greenspan is trying to do. Perhaps he's betting that letting the bubble deflate slowly will give productivity gains and so forth time to bring intrinsic value up. Thus stabilizing valuations at some reasonable level.
It's too soon to say if he'll be able to pull it off.
Katherine |
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| To: willcousa who wrote (60854) | 2/22/2002 4:14:20 PM | | From: mitch-c | | | | OT - wireless networking
That's kind of the pattern I envision for eventual (wireless) last-mile buildout. Right now, cell towers are expensive aggregators, and the cellphone "network" follows roughly the lines of mainframe/dumb terminal computing. The "dumb" peripherals ask the central node for a timeshare, but don't negotiate it among themselves.
When a "distributed processing" model hits, in which your home "base station" antenna helps not only you connect, but stands in as a (redundant) relay hop for your neighbors' antennas, then TCP/IP routing can work much the same as it does over wire - pick the most responsive path and use it.
- Mitch |
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| To: Paul V. who wrote (60906) | 2/22/2002 4:41:50 PM | | From: Tito L. Nisperos Jr. | | | | Paul V,
AMAT usually hurdles a major Bar of resistance like 50 on its 4th try (the 3rd and 4th usually just days apart). We have gone as high as 48 twice already. The Nasdaq needs to come back from its current slump though, in order for AMAT to trade above 50.
If it's not time yet to enter a higher YoYo range, at least by buying some now near the Drop and selling later above 46 near the Catch is profitable. |
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