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   PoliticsFormerly About Applied Materials


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To: John Trader who wrote (60849)2/22/2002 2:13:08 PM
From: Jacob Snyder
   of 70976
 
John, Michael, Maurice:

I've been on a roll, since late 2000, and made no big bad calls. But, before that, I've made some really horrible calls. Look at my posts on the WCOM thread in mid-2000. I thought WCOM was a Safe stock, a Value, at 40. I was loaded up by 30, and held all of it, all the way down to 13. So, please, don't think I'm a genius, just because my recent track record is good. I'm not.

I do everything in increments, precisely because I don't think I or anyone can call specific tops and bottoms. My AMAT sell at 50 didn't happen. But I offloaded all my TXN at 30, giving me the cash to buy back now. At some point the Bull Market will resume. Or maybe we get a Bear Rally that lasts a year, and brings the Nas (temporarily) to 3000. I spend a lot of time guessing, and post my guesses, but I am likely to be wrong a significant fraction of the time. And I change my mind a lot.

Where I am now, and Guesses-of-the-Day: At the beginning of this month, I was 35% cash. This week, a lot of buy points have been hit, in EMC, AMAT, CSCO, TXN, and CMH. As of today, I started using margin. Last October, I had posted I wouldn't start using margin until the Nas was tetesting it's October lows (1400). I'm buying more at higher levels (started using margin at Nas 1700, down from intermediate top of 2100) , because I now think we don't retest the October lows. I was very encouraged by the conference calls I listened to this earnings season. IMO, liquidity and a (modest) rebound in the fundamentals will put a floor under stocks. I expect that managements for tech companies will be cautiously guiding analysts to raise forward earnings/sales/margin expectations, and this has to be good for stocks. But war and valuations will put a ceiling on stock prices. In particular, I think our government is committed to overthrowing the Iraqi regime, a job much more difficult than the Afghan war. This can't be good for stocks.

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To: Jacob Snyder who wrote (60899)2/22/2002 2:20:37 PM
From: Cary Salsberg
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Sanity Check!

Are there 2 Jacob Snyders?

The previous "Jacob Snyder" post said the 10/1 bottom is wishful thinking. This "Jacob Snyder" post says you started to use margin.

Will the real "Jacob Snyder" please stand up!

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From: runes2/22/2002 2:40:36 PM
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OK - now we have NAS 1700 and only one week left in February.

...which also means that we have fallen back to the level that the market was at the day before 9-11. The difference is that then the economy was getting worse, now it is getting better.

....There should be good resistance at 1700 and that will (hopefully) stabilize the market. Lot of economic numbers next week but most likely these will reflect slow but steady improvement.

...The big event for semi equips will be NVLS mid quarter earnings report on the 28th (Thursday). I expect that they will reiterate that the quarter is on track, that orders have picked up enough to offset dropping deferred revenue from SAB101, and that they are still looking for the recovery to pick up by the end of the year.

...Nibble time has begun...

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To: Cary Salsberg who wrote (60900)2/22/2002 2:47:38 PM
From: Jacob Snyder
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Sorry I wasn't clear. Those two opinions are different time frames.

On a time frame of weeks to a few months, I am bullish. I think this current dip (6 weeks old) doesn't take out the 10/01 lows. Then, IMO, we will go on, and sometime this summer, take out the January 2002 high (Nas 2100). I am using margin now, following my policy of buy-the-dip/sell-the-rally. I'm guessing we're now close enough to the bottom of this intermediate-term dip, to be safely using margin. I will get off margin quickly, in the following rebound,as I did last October.

On a longer time frame (many months to a few years), I think we have not seen capitulation in the telecom/internet sector, including their equip suppliers. Notice, this opinion is not a market call. It's specifically about telecom/internet (a large sector, but not the whole market). To a certain extent, we are already seeing this. WCOM has recently taken out its 2001 low, while the Nas and S&P 500 are still well above those lows.

Am I being clear now?

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To: Sam Citron who wrote (60891)2/22/2002 3:08:45 PM
From: Paul V.
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Sam, I missed Gilder. What did he have to say/

Paul

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To: Cary Salsberg who wrote (60900)2/22/2002 3:23:41 PM
From: Paul V.
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Cary, Jacob is being flexible, just like this market. :) At least he is not buying bonds, Bank, Precious metal, Riets, or savings in loans.<ggg>

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To: Tito L. Nisperos Jr. who wrote (60782)2/22/2002 3:24:41 PM
From: Tito L. Nisperos Jr.
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AMAT YoYo Demo --- For the YoYo Catch in March.

2/22/02 Bought AMAT 20 Calls Mar 42.50 @ 3.10/sh

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To: Tito L. Nisperos Jr. who wrote (60905)2/22/2002 3:51:02 PM
From: Paul V.
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Tito, With AMAT hitting $42 today it hit right on the DW bull support line, also a double bottom. It will be interesting to see if it breaks below it, Monday. How many more tries do you think it will take before it takes out the $48 triple top. After it breaks the $48 it appears the next resistance is at $50. This is where Jacob is planning to sell. Amat is forming a good Dw base. IMO, I see this puppy in a trading range until the SEMI bookings and possibly the next earnings report.

Paul

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To: StanX Long who wrote (60896)2/22/2002 4:07:39 PM
From: Katherine Derbyshire
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>>Ask one of my many friend that was laid off and have yet to find a job, how soft this feels?<<

Exactly my point. I've got friends in that situation, too.

Still, as bad as it is, there's historical precedent for it to be a whole lot worse.

Katherine

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To: Jacob Snyder who wrote (60898)2/22/2002 4:12:44 PM
From: Katherine Derbyshire
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>>I suppose you could argue that we'll see the Bubble deflated in steps, like a balloon with a tiny intermittent pinhole in it. But there is no historical precedent for that. <<

I suspect that's exactly what Greenspan is trying to do. Perhaps he's betting that letting the bubble deflate slowly will give productivity gains and so forth time to bring intrinsic value up. Thus stabilizing valuations at some reasonable level.

It's too soon to say if he'll be able to pull it off.

Katherine

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