| To: John Trader who wrote (60826) | 2/21/2002 3:25:31 PM | | From: willcousa | | | | When I introduced the idea of the herd mentality to the discussion I did not mean to imply that the cycle is at all herd-induced, tho it may be. I see the cycle as attenuated by the herd mentality. Most don't have the appetite for doing anything until a lot of others are doing it too.
There can't be many people who have computers. There must also be a lot who will never use one in the way we do. If it is buried in their car, sure they will use it. If they have to do any work to use it - never.
In regard to last mile - has WIFI and the independent cluster phenom that is occurring been discussed here? I can remember many of the first cable TV systems starting in the same way. |
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| To: mitch-c who wrote (60827) | 2/21/2002 3:31:03 PM | | From: willcousa | | | | | I spent a number of years working for several defense contractors. I would guess that spin-off technologies from defense R&D are pure happenstance. On the other hand, when they happen they can be very big. If you think defense boondoggles are big you should see the procurement that takes place elsewhere in government. Would you rather have the use of a $10,000 cast aluminum toilet seat or the results of $10,000 given to one of Jessee Jackson's organizations? |
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| To: Katherine Derbyshire who wrote (60828) | 2/21/2002 3:34:18 PM | | From: Cary Salsberg | | | | RE: "The underlying technology of the Internet itself will be forced to stabilize as the installed base grows."
I am not sure what you mean by "stabilize." I would think that the Internet is primarily a "word" based system, now, and the world wants a real-time, full motion, audio/video based system. The Internet is primarily a wired access system, now, and the world wants a wireless access system. |
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| To: John Trader who wrote (60826) | 2/21/2002 4:18:51 PM | | From: michael97123 | | | | John,
Once again stymied and the news re: economic growth has been better than i expected. But the market is the market. Jacobs posts are great and so are cary's but the last cary post i read had him selling cc on amat at 50. Just missed and i had followed him in as well and just missed the price. So where do we go from 1716. My mental bottom for this decline has been 1700, a full 150 points below 1850-2100 range nas had been trading in for quite awhile. I think i will lower that by 50 points. 1850-2100, then 1650-1850, then the last stand perhaps in jacobs world 1400(1388) to 1650. My numbes are just benchmarks based on nothing technical. I dont expect to see new lows for nas but this 1650-1850 range might take a long time to get out of on the upside. Will be intersting what the mindset will be if and when we get back to 1840-50. mike |
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| To: Cary Salsberg who wrote (60832) | 2/21/2002 4:32:33 PM | | From: Sam Citron | | | | I am not sure what you mean by "stabilize."
You both raise good points. I think Kat's point is simply that the boom often monetizes the rosy scenario very early on in the adoption cycle. Thus the stabilization that she refers to may be a gradual dampening process in the amplitudes of future internet-related boom busts.
It may take several more years for 30 frame per second wireless MPEG video on $99 handheld devices to become a reality. Whether you call such a change incremental or revolutionary is up to you, but it will surely usher in a Schumpeterian avalanche. |
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| To: mitch-c who wrote (60827) | 2/21/2002 4:49:57 PM | | From: Jacob Snyder | | | | ST trading:
bought 1/3 of my trading position, at 43. Have a pending buy (same size) at 40, and pending sells at 47 (for the trading position), and also sells at 50, 55, 60 for my longer-term shares.
AMAT is actually holding up quite well here, considering what the market has been doing. We are still comfortably above support at 40, and more than 50% above last year's lows.
By contrast, look at WCOM or EMC. |
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| To: Cary Salsberg who wrote (60832) | 2/21/2002 4:55:25 PM | | From: Katherine Derbyshire | | | | Technology stabilization on the Internet can happen at several levels. The most fundamental is mostly invisible to users: transmission protocols, hardware infrastructure, that sort of thing. That's the equivalent of railroads needing to use the same gauge in order to switch cars from one line to another, and has mostly already happened.
The next level has to do with data formats: how does the receiving device know what it's getting? How do you squeeze words, pictures, sound, and other kinds of data down the same pipe? At some point, a given format (HTML for words, possibly MP3 for audio, who knows what for video) will gain critical mass and no further innovation will be possible or desirable.
I disagree, by the way, that the world wants a real-time, full-motion, audio/video-based system. I've got broadband now, but very rarely bother with sites that depend on multimedia. If I want information, reading is faster. If I want entertainment, I've got a TV, a stereo, and a DVD player. Early web+TV combinations have not been terribly impressive.
Similarly, at some point a last-mile solution will gain critical mass and people will stop thinking about it, just as they long ago stopped thinking about their telephones, electricity, and plumbing.
I'm not convinced that the world is screaming for wireless access, either. Devices small enough to be portable have some pretty serious usability limitations for all but highly targeted services (messaging, traffic reports, that kind of thing). And for heavy duty web use, even a 56K landline is barely fast enough, and that's much faster than most of the wireless choices.
Except for a small fraction of early adopters, people generally won't buy technology just because it exists. It has to be "better" than the existing alternatives in some way. Blackberry has been successful because it's better (more versatile, more portable) than a text pager. Palm OS has been successful because it's better (more portable) than a paper planner. I have yet to see an application that convinces me that wireless web is better.
Katherine |
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| To: Jan Crawley who wrote (60829) | 2/21/2002 5:27:07 PM | | From: advocatedevil | | | | If I recall, you should be bookin a couple $K with that short play. Nice win. Unfortunately, I was unable to trade AMAT today and missed out on the bear action. I'm not currently holding any short-term AMAT plays, but perhaps tomorrow... Geez, pretty ugly for the techs today. Tomorrow should be interesting - take 'em out behind the barn and shoot 'em down, or give 'em a brief rest like yesterday before continuing the torture? Good luck with your trades Jan!
AdvocateDevil |
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