| To: StanX Long who wrote (60819) | 2/21/2002 2:55:51 AM | | From: StanX Long | | | | Computer Associates Plunges 20 Percent
foxnews.com
Wednesday, February 20, 2002
NEW YORK — Computer Associates International Inc. shares plunged nearly 20 percent on Wednesday after reports that the U.S. Attorney's office was investigating the software maker's accounting practices.
Shares of Islandia, New York-based Computer Associates, the world's No. 4 software maker, were off $3.91, or 15.5 percent, to $21.39 in morning trading on the New York Stock Exchange, where it was the second-most active issue and among the biggest percentage losers.
Earlier in the morning, the stock had fallen as low as $20.25 -- a level not seen since Jan. 2001.
On Wednesday, Newsday reported the FBI and the U.S. Attorney's office in Brooklyn, have launched a preliminary investigation of whether the company's accounting practices violated federal criminal fraud laws.
The newspaper said investigators are focusing on whether the company properly reported its software sales from revenue from services -- fees collected for training, upgrades, and maintenance of its software. |
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| To: StanX Long who wrote (60820) | 2/21/2002 3:02:52 AM | | From: StanX Long | | | | Asia's top bourse Tokyo stages hot rally
sg.news.yahoo.com
By Rajan Moses
SINGAPORE, Feb 21 (Reuters) - Asia's top bourse, Tokyo, roared up on Thursday after an unexpected rally in Wall Street and on fresh optimism over the government's anti-deflation steps.
The U.S. stocks rebound, which took the Dow Jones Index to its highest level in 11 weeks after two straight days of losses, also lent support to Hong Kong and Singapore stocks.
Tokyo's benchmark Nikkei <.N225> ended up 4.69 percent, or 461.29 points, at 10,295.42, the biggest percentage gain since March 26. The capital-weighted TOPIX index <.TOPX> rose 31.98 points or 3.34 percent at 988.89.
Brokerage houses led the market up with Nikko Cordial Corp
<8603.T>, Japan's third-largest broker, soaring 9.62 percent to 467 yen. |
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| To: StanX Long who wrote (60821) | 2/21/2002 3:04:03 AM | | From: StanX Long | | | | Strait Times Index drifts as investors look for direction
Thursday February 21, 2:41 PM
sg.news.yahoo.com
SINGAPORE (Reuters) - Singapore shares were off their highs by midday on Thursday, as recent volatility in U.S. markets gave little direction to investors searching for an economic recovery story.
"Our market gapped up from yesterday's close at the open but investors are still pretty cautious and are starting to sell into strength," said an institutional dealer at a Japanese brokerage.
"I expect the market to trade sideways with a downside bias for the rest of the day."
The Straits Times Index, which fell in the past four sessions, was up 0.32 percent or 5.56 points at 1,734.91 at the lunch break, off an early high of 1,750.04.
It is still up six percent since the start of the year. |
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| To: StanX Long who wrote (60798) | 2/21/2002 1:09:11 PM | | From: Math Junkie | | | | "Based on a three-month average, bookings for North American-based tool suppliers were at their lowest point since nearly the middle of the 1990s"
It's odd that they're doing a three-month average of a three-month average. Still, it's hard to get excited over bookings, given that the month-over-month growth dropped from 6.7% to 1.3%. |
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| To: Gottfried who wrote (60824) | 2/21/2002 1:25:50 PM | | From: mitch-c | | | | It looks like what I'd call a forced vibration, or dynamic divergence, like a kid jumping on a trampoline. Higher peaks and lower troughs ... until the last few months where it has flatlined. Definitely reinforces the concept of a U-shaped cycle.
- Mitch |
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| To: Jacob Snyder who wrote (60775) | 2/21/2002 1:47:00 PM | | From: John Trader | | | | Jacob, I thought some more about your recent sobering post, No. 60683. I appreciate your inputs, and I enjoy discussing general market views like this. I think most here would agree that the big picture going forward for internet/telecom affects AMAT quite a bit.
Let me summarize my attempt at taking the opposing viewpoint below. Please get back to me if you have any comments.
1. Other than the constant of human nature, what else is there to cause this boom/bust pattern to repeat those other historical patterns in such detail as we go forward from here? Maybe the human part is all you need, but it seems that there are a lot of other factors which are specific to each time a new technology gets mass-adopted.
2. This situation seems a lot different than previous cycles to me in that the internet, bandwidth, and chip speed are all going to experience major growth going forward. The microprocessor was mass-adopted quite a while back, and yet we did not experience these cycles. Could it be that every once in a while we go all the way through your 7 steps, but most of the time we do not, and could it be that it is simply unpredicatable each time? I am thinking there were many great leaps in technology, but not that many really bad bust periods that followed.
3. This boom/bust was driven by by several things I think, which include the internet being mass-adopted, the pre-Y2K mass-purchase of computer equipment (a lot will need replacing soon), the Fed hitting the gas at the worst time because of Y2K fears, and then having stepped too hard on the brakes afterwards, favorable demographics, and finally, the end of the cold war (boosts economy since defense spending was like a tax).
4. My last point is that the internet is perhaps the greatest invention since the printing press, and is still early in its adoption cycle world-wide. In the bandwidth area, we hit a roadblock (last mile), which may be giving way in a few years. Since there is so much to look forward to, why will have consolidation to the degree you mention? In short, maybe this is just a huge bump in the road, rather than similar to the chariot, railroad, radio, or canal-building events, which seem to me at least to be inventions that did not change much as time moved forward.
Having said all that, we very much need to study history, and inputs like yours are much appreciated by me, and many others here. I may take your point of view on this eventually, still thinking about it.
Thanks.
John
P.S. Wrote this one quick also, I am approaching this like conversation. |
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| To: John Trader who wrote (60826) | 2/21/2002 2:34:19 PM | | From: mitch-c | | | | RE: "Defense spending is like a tax ..."
I'd quibble that, a bit. While it does, in fact, come from tax money, it also tends (in R and D) to be venture capital for risky projects, often commercially untouchable. While the stories are legion of "boondoggles," some amazing payoffs have also emerged - from defense projects. If invention is characterized by evolution interrupted by revolution, weapon development has been a major impetus for revolution. Another, less obvious benefit of defense spending is the advanced technical training required to maintain weapons systems; many private-sector workers learn their initial career skills in the military, then carry them away.
Everyone is familiar with the Apollo Project spinoffs; I'd count miniaturized (and eventually integrated) circuits among them. Nuclear power evolved as a defense project, and aviation, rocketry and jet engine technologies matured quickly under wartime demands.
A final example (which you cite in your next paragraph): The technology behind the Internet was developed as a nuclear-attack-survivable means of high-speed communications. Look at the acronym ARPANET if you don't believe me - it's the (Defense) Advanced Research Projects Agency NETwork. I would argue further that as a communication system, it is as much of a weapon (threat) to regimes which depend on suppressing information as it is a useful commercial tool to us.
So, while defense spending may not appear to be the pinnacle of efficient use of resources, it's not the bottomless drain you seem to allege it to be.
- Mitch
(Full Disclosure - In my first job after college, I spent several years as an Army officer.) |
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| To: John Trader who wrote (60826) | 2/21/2002 2:41:03 PM | | From: Katherine Derbyshire | | | | >>In short, maybe this is just a huge bump in the road, rather than similar to the chariot, railroad, radio, or canal-building events, which seem to me at least to be inventions that did not change much as time moved forward.<<
I think maybe you had to be living at the time in order to fully appreciate how much the railroad and the radio changed things. I wasn't, but I can speculate.
Take away your Internet connection, your television, your radio, and also your car. Your only source of news is the local paper, and *their* only source of news is on-the-scene dispatches which have to travel back via regular mail or, in extreme cases, telegraph. If a relative is in the armed forces, you don't know whether they're dead or alive for months at a time. Whole shiploads of people regularly vanish without a trace when the ship goes down in a storm. Any news less important than a presidential assassination is weeks out of date by the time you read it. Life moves at a slower pace because it *has* to.
Now add radio. Though radio itself doesn't change much once it's introduced, people discover more and more different uses for it. News can happen in real time. Ships can tell someone they're in trouble while it's still possible to save the survivors. Military units can actually communicate with each other while a battle is going on. Communities affected by natural disasters can call for help. People in different parts of the country can have shared, community experiences.
While the Internet will be (already is, in some ways) just as revolutionary, I don't see why it should be immune to the same boom-bust cycle. The underlying technology of the Internet itself will be forced to stabilize as the installed base grows. The applications built on top of it will reach smaller and smaller available markets as the "obvious" niches are filled. (Streaming music will probably appeal to fewer people than email and instant messaging. Streaming video will reach fewer still.) While the global middle class will get Internet access very quickly, it will be a very long time before the world as a whole sees the 40-60% penetration rates seen in developed countries.
Don't get me wrong. There are still many many growth opportunities in the Internet space. Lots of people will make lots of money. Lots of money has been made in broadcast media since the end of the radio boom, too, but RCA never again reached it's pre-bust peak.
Katherine |
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