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To: Gridbird who wrote (34183)7/11/2018 10:35:43 PM
From: E_K_S
   of 48864
 
Re: Do not own or follow but just saw FPI off 15% plus..? Tariffs?

Based on that formula, $18.00/share for the preferred would equal $3.15/share FPI common on a forced redemption.

Interesting arbitrage as the preferred is not superior to the common if/when common shares get stressed.

Wonder if the LAND preferreds have such a provision? It's in the details where things get interesting.

Thanks for the info.

EKS

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To: E_K_S who wrote (34184)7/11/2018 10:48:48 PM
From: Gridbird
   of 48864
 
do Re: Do not own or follow but just saw FPI off 15% plus..? Tariffs?

Its definitely something to ponder. But $3 is still a good distance from after hours trades of $6.20. If some holes are in the thesis of the writer then one would think the conversion would not be in play. Its a casino game at this point....Or a Clint Eastwood moment... “Do I feel lucky? Well do ya punk?”.

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From: 1610lsd7/12/2018 8:20:15 AM
   of 48864
 
30 Day Federal Funds Futures Quotes Globex

Data from CME FF Futures..... Current Funds Rate @ 1.75% to 2.00%

Implied FF Rates...

August.....1.915%

Sept........1.945%

Dec.........2.195%

............................................................................... OPEN..............................###....

JUL 2018 Show Price Chart 98.0875UNCH98.087598.0998.0998.087561506:48:37 CT
12 Jul 2018
AUG 2018 Show Price Chart 98.08-0.00598.08598.08598.08598.0815,69206:48:57 CT
12 Jul 2018
SEP 2018 Show Price Chart 98.05-0.00598.05598.05598.05598.0513,82406:48:57 CT
12 Jul 2018
OCT 2018 Show Price Chart 97.87-0.00597.87597.87597.87597.879,42806:55:52 CT
12 Jul 2018
NOV 2018 Show Price Chart 97.86-0.0197.8797.86597.86597.862,31406:10:26 CT
12 Jul 2018
DEC 2018 Show Price Chart 97.80-0.0197.8197.80597.805

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To: Gridbird who wrote (34185)7/12/2018 8:50:21 AM
From: E_K_S
2 Recommendations   of 48864
 
Re: do Re: Do not own or follow but just saw FPI off 15% plus..? Tariffs?

Watching FPIpB today. I see pre-market some trades at $19.49/share +7.4%. Common shares are higher too on pre-market trades; last $5.92/share +12%.

Will watch where this settles, vol/price reversal

Farmland Partners bounces nearly 14% in premarket action

Farmland Partners (NYSE: FPI) plunged 39% yesterday after Seeking Alpha contributor Rota Fortunae called out company management for playing accounting games.

The company's CEO denied the allegations after the close, and this morning B. Riley's Craig Kucera upgrades to Buy from Neutral. He trimmed his price target to $8 from $8.50, but that's still 50% upside from Wednesday's close.

There's fresh analysis on Seeking Alpha as well, with contributors Beyond Saving and Trapping Value mulling the re-priced FPI.

Shares up 13.6% premarket to $6.00.

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To: E_K_S who wrote (34187)7/12/2018 9:54:55 AM
From: Gridbird
   of 48864
 
Re: do Re: Do not own or follow but just saw FPI off 15% plus..? Tariffs?

Ah, let the giant casino open up for business. I must have put vodka in my coffee mistakenly and instead of selling my purchase, I “loaded up” and bought 100 more premarket and it is up already too. Maybe when the vodka clears the system I will sell and take GF out for a very nice steak dinner, lol.

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To: Gridbird who wrote (34188)7/12/2018 10:02:50 AM
From: E_K_S
1 Recommendation   of 48864
 
Re: do Re: Do not own or follow but just saw FPI off 15% plus..? Tariffs?

Ha . . maybe move those proceeds into LANDP . .

They need scale to make these AG REITs work. Small market cap even if FPI/LAND assets are combined. Remember U.S. the best at growing food/Ag but still early for the AG REIT business model. The COOP model working but no 'pure' investment other than CHSCP.

FWIW, looking at CTT as my AG play in trees. Have GTC order in at $12.35/share and only 4.4% div yield.

My main AG play now is ADM.

Good Investing & swing trade gambling...:-)

EKS

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To: E_K_S who wrote (34189)7/12/2018 10:19:16 AM
From: Gridbird
   of 48864
 
Re: do Re: Do not own or follow but just saw FPI off 15% plus..? Tariffs?

EKS, lets delete the investing part, and just leave it at gambling, lol.....In the long run, I probably would be better off having it go to zero to teach me a lesson! This issue is a long ways away from my WELPM type holdings, lol.

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From: lumpygravy7/12/2018 12:18:18 PM
2 Recommendations   of 48864
 
FPI upgraded to Buy at BRileyFBR....................................................................

Analyst Craig Kucera.


Farmland Partners Inc. (FPI - $5.28, Buy; $8.00 PT); Opinion Upgrade -

• Upgrading from Neutral to Buy, PT from $8.50 to $8.00; after stock hit hard (-39%) on Seeking Alpha hatchet job.

• Crux of article was inside dealing on loans representing 1% of assets/1% of revenue, questionable valuation assumptions, nonexistent, in
our view, concerns about solvency.

• Firm hasn't recommended the stock since mid 2017 at ~$10.59, but at $5.28 represents potential for big total return (60%+), though
chance for dividend cut down the road (not likely in 2018).

• Lowering estimates on falling commodities prices/potential for trade war ($0.04/yr), NAV down ~$1; still compelling.

• Not a fan of sector and farming fundamentals weakening, but not to this extent; trades at 53% of NAV/14.2x 2018E AFFO vs. group
basically at NAV/20x.

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From: 1610lsd7/12/2018 2:36:57 PM
   of 48864
 
KTBA..... On July 12.... down to $28.00 on 1600shs.... about 1.5% ....any news / comments I have missed ??

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From: jackim7/12/2018 2:52:32 PM
1 Recommendation   of 48864
 
July 10, 2018
Sempra Energy Announces Pricing Of Public Offerings Of Common Stock And Mandatory Convertible Preferred Stock

SAN DIEGO, July 10, 2018 /PRNewswire/ -- Sempra Energy (NYSE: SRE) today announced that it has priced its concurrent offerings (the equity offerings) of 9,750,000 shares of its common stock in connection with the forward sale agreements described below at $113.75 per share and 5,000,000 shares of its 6.75-percent Mandatory Convertible Preferred Stock, Series B, at $100 per share, each in a separate registered public offering. The equity offerings are expected to close on or about July 13, 2018, subject to customary closing conditions.

Post by someone at Doug Le Du.

I posted my DD there:

The Temporary Symbol is SREMP.

The SEC filing is shown below:

5 million shares:

sec.gov

Unless earlier converted, each share of the Series B Mandatory Convertible Preferred Stock will automatically convert on the second business day immediately following the last trading day of the settlement period into between 0.7326 and 0.8791 shares of our common stock, subject to anti-dilution adjustments. The number of shares of our common stock issuable on conversion of the Series B Mandatory Convertible Preferred Stock will be determined based on the average VWAP (as defined herein) per share of our common stock over the 20 consecutive trading day period beginning on and including the 21st scheduled trading day immediately preceding July 15, 2021, which we refer to as the “settlement period.” At any time prior to July 15, 2021, holders may elect to convert each share of the Series B Mandatory Convertible Preferred Stock into shares of our common stock at the minimum conversion rate of 0.7326 shares of our common stock per share of the Series B Mandatory Convertible Preferred Stock, subject to anti-dilution adjustments; provided, however, that if holders elect to convert any shares of the Series B Mandatory Convertible Preferred Stock during a specified period beginning on the effective date of a fundamental change (as defined herein), such shares of the Series B Mandatory Convertible Preferred Stock will be converted into shares of our common stock at the fundamental change conversion rate (as defined herein), and the holders will also be entitled to receive a fundamental change dividend make-whole amount and accumulated dividend amount (each as defined herein).


I subscribe to MorningStar premium. For those who has account with Schwab. An abbreviated Analyst's report should also be available.

Risk | by Andrew Bischof Updated May 14, 2018
The utilities segments still face regulatory risk, as demonstrated in their less-than-perfect outcomes in the 2012 and 2016 rate cases. But the California Public Utilities Commission is a relatively constructive partner compared with many of Sempra's peers in other states. The utilities' pending 2019 general rate case will be a near-term indicator of the state regulatory environment under California's RAMP program, which focuses on risk mitigation across the utilities' footprint.

Sempra's biggest risks at the nonregulated businesses come from executing its capital-intensive projects within original budgets and shifting gas flows in the U.S. that could disadvantage the company's infrastructure assets. Its Gilder, thank you very much for the find.

Latin American businesses face potential currency, regulatory, and geopolitical instability.

Also, the jury is still out on incremental LNG opportunities in North America, although the progress being made to construct the Cameron export facility will deliver strong returns. The most significant assumption that we make in our forecast is the successful timely construction of the Cameron LNG export terminal. We don't incorporate any value for potential incremental sites at Costa Azul or Port Arthur, which could bring material upside to our fair value estimate as well.


It gives a 3 Star. At this time, very few shares have been sold. Higher yield than the A convertible share, but the conversion is obviously less favorable. Still a decent play. Thanks for the post, Gilder. FIDO analysts gave very bearish. Schwab rated SRE common as C. I live in Orange County, CA in Edison service region. It seems that we do not have the problems like the P and G utilities in Northern CA. This seems to me an attractive new issue.

Schwab is NOT ready. Sold my SWAN taking some profit for a change, AGO-B and picked up 50 shares at $101 at Vanguard brokerage. More volume now, seems to be climbing.still only 417,000 shares on FIDO Active Trade PRO.

I live in Orange County, CA in the Edison service area. Sempra in San Diego. We do not have the problems of PG and E of Northern CA to my best knowledge.

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