| To: E_K_S who wrote (34181) | 7/11/2018 10:28:43 PM | | From: Gridbird | | | | Re: Do not own or follow but just saw FPI off 15% plus..? Tariffs?
EKS, here is something to consider.....
Preferred Stock Trader, Contributor
Comments (1133) | Following
For those looking at the FPI preferred stock, in the Pannick Report chat room, Richard Lajeune noted that in the propectus for FPI-B preferred stock (covenant on page S-48), the preferred can be forced to convert to common stock with a cap of 5.7 shares of common per preferred share. Thus if the common stock of FPI should get down to $2.00 per share, for example, FPI could redeem each preferred share for $11.40/share of common stock which would help get the preferred off of their books and really put a hurt on preferred shareholders. So the common stock price performance can impact the preferred stock at some point if things deteriorate at FPI. It isn't strictly bankruptcy or insolvency that preferred stockholders need to worry about. |
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| To: Gridbird who wrote (34183) | 7/11/2018 10:35:43 PM | | From: E_K_S | | | | Re: Do not own or follow but just saw FPI off 15% plus..? Tariffs?
Based on that formula, $18.00/share for the preferred would equal $3.15/share FPI common on a forced redemption.
Interesting arbitrage as the preferred is not superior to the common if/when common shares get stressed.
Wonder if the LAND preferreds have such a provision? It's in the details where things get interesting.
Thanks for the info.
EKS |
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| To: E_K_S who wrote (34184) | 7/11/2018 10:48:48 PM | | From: Gridbird | | | | do Re: Do not own or follow but just saw FPI off 15% plus..? Tariffs?
Its definitely something to ponder. But $3 is still a good distance from after hours trades of $6.20. If some holes are in the thesis of the writer then one would think the conversion would not be in play. Its a casino game at this point....Or a Clint Eastwood moment... “Do I feel lucky? Well do ya punk?”. |
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| From: 1610lsd | 7/12/2018 8:20:15 AM | | | | | | 30 Day Federal Funds Futures Quotes Globex
Data from CME FF Futures..... Current Funds Rate @ 1.75% to 2.00%
Implied FF Rates...
August.....1.915%
Sept........1.945%
Dec.........2.195%
............................................................................... OPEN..............................###....
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| To: E_K_S who wrote (34187) | 7/12/2018 9:54:55 AM | | From: Gridbird | | | | Re: do Re: Do not own or follow but just saw FPI off 15% plus..? Tariffs?
Ah, let the giant casino open up for business. I must have put vodka in my coffee mistakenly and instead of selling my purchase, I “loaded up” and bought 100 more premarket and it is up already too. Maybe when the vodka clears the system I will sell and take GF out for a very nice steak dinner, lol. |
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| To: Gridbird who wrote (34188) | 7/12/2018 10:02:50 AM | | From: E_K_S | | | | Re: do Re: Do not own or follow but just saw FPI off 15% plus..? Tariffs?
Ha . . maybe move those proceeds into LANDP . .
They need scale to make these AG REITs work. Small market cap even if FPI/LAND assets are combined. Remember U.S. the best at growing food/Ag but still early for the AG REIT business model. The COOP model working but no 'pure' investment other than CHSCP.
FWIW, looking at CTT as my AG play in trees. Have GTC order in at $12.35/share and only 4.4% div yield.
My main AG play now is ADM.
Good Investing & swing trade gambling...:-)
EKS |
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| To: E_K_S who wrote (34189) | 7/12/2018 10:19:16 AM | | From: Gridbird | | | | Re: do Re: Do not own or follow but just saw FPI off 15% plus..? Tariffs?
EKS, lets delete the investing part, and just leave it at gambling, lol.....In the long run, I probably would be better off having it go to zero to teach me a lesson! This issue is a long ways away from my WELPM type holdings, lol. |
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| From: lumpygravy | 7/12/2018 12:18:18 PM | | | | | | FPI upgraded to Buy at BRileyFBR....................................................................
Analyst Craig Kucera.
Farmland Partners Inc. (FPI - $5.28, Buy; $8.00 PT); Opinion Upgrade -
• Upgrading from Neutral to Buy, PT from $8.50 to $8.00; after stock hit hard (-39%) on Seeking Alpha hatchet job.
• Crux of article was inside dealing on loans representing 1% of assets/1% of revenue, questionable valuation assumptions, nonexistent, in
our view, concerns about solvency.
• Firm hasn't recommended the stock since mid 2017 at ~$10.59, but at $5.28 represents potential for big total return (60%+), though
chance for dividend cut down the road (not likely in 2018).
• Lowering estimates on falling commodities prices/potential for trade war ($0.04/yr), NAV down ~$1; still compelling.
• Not a fan of sector and farming fundamentals weakening, but not to this extent; trades at 53% of NAV/14.2x 2018E AFFO vs. group
basically at NAV/20x.
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