| To: lumpygravy who wrote (34161) | 7/11/2018 6:35:49 PM | | From: maverick61 | | | | Re: Do not own or follow but just saw FPI off 15% plus..? Tariffs?
seekingalpha.com
Farmland Partners: Loans To Related-Party Tenants Introduce Significant Risk Of Insolvency - Shares Uninvestible
Have to say this is one of the best, well researched short seller articles I have seen. I always take them with a grain of salt but lots of great research here. I never took a bite of the FPI apple - i had looked at it before but some things never set right with me and I always passed on it. Glad I did |
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| To: maverick61 who wrote (34178) | 7/11/2018 9:19:45 PM | | From: E_K_S | | | | Re: Do not own or follow but just saw FPI off 15% plus..? Tariffs?
Very good detail on those loans from the county records. The author put a lot of the pieces together to show their timeline and history.
Then BOD members resign and auditors terminated add more fuel to the fire.
FPI could be a candidate for a Buy Under by LAND. Will be interesting to see what happens as LAND recently sold a property in Oregon netting them $6.5mln. I suspect LAND could cherry pick some of those FPI properties.
FPI lost 39% of their market cap value today and at today's close has a market cap of $173.5mln. The SA article says value is worth $4.85/share or a market cap of $159mln or 9% less than today's close.
LAND has a market cap of $190mln, so a merger now is not out of the question. If I was LAND, I would be looking at FPI and if they can avoid future litigation expenses, see if companies could be merged.
Will be interesting to see what develops. I still like the concept of an AG REIT but you need scale for it to work.
FWIW, Been looking at those CHSCP, CHSCL, CHSCM, CHSCN & CHSCO preferreds. Earning out today and look good. Not sure what if any future tariff's might have.
EKS |
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| To: Gridbird who wrote (34180) | 7/11/2018 9:57:29 PM | | From: E_K_S | | | | Re: Do not own or follow but just saw FPI off 15% plus..? Tariffs?
Did you look at the preferred change of control covenant? It could be a windfall if a merger/acquisition is done. I have not checked but was thinking along those line. $25.00/share PAR on a Buy-Out sounds pretty good.
I like to turn a negative into a positive when you look at all angles.
EKS |
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| To: E_K_S who wrote (34181) | 7/11/2018 10:04:14 PM | | From: Gridbird | | | | Re: Do not own or follow but just saw FPI off 15% plus..? Tariffs?
I seen that but I am not thinking about being that fortunate. I was actually thinking relief rally and management coming up with some info that counters and calms the issue down and price rises some. This has kind of been a dog with fleas to begin with. But a little flea powder may stop some of the scratching. I will sleep tonight and decide if I want to buy a bit more and believe management can refute some of this effectively. |
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| To: E_K_S who wrote (34181) | 7/11/2018 10:28:43 PM | | From: Gridbird | | | | Re: Do not own or follow but just saw FPI off 15% plus..? Tariffs?
EKS, here is something to consider.....
Preferred Stock Trader, Contributor
Comments (1133) | Following
For those looking at the FPI preferred stock, in the Pannick Report chat room, Richard Lajeune noted that in the propectus for FPI-B preferred stock (covenant on page S-48), the preferred can be forced to convert to common stock with a cap of 5.7 shares of common per preferred share. Thus if the common stock of FPI should get down to $2.00 per share, for example, FPI could redeem each preferred share for $11.40/share of common stock which would help get the preferred off of their books and really put a hurt on preferred shareholders. So the common stock price performance can impact the preferred stock at some point if things deteriorate at FPI. It isn't strictly bankruptcy or insolvency that preferred stockholders need to worry about. |
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| To: Gridbird who wrote (34183) | 7/11/2018 10:35:43 PM | | From: E_K_S | | | | Re: Do not own or follow but just saw FPI off 15% plus..? Tariffs?
Based on that formula, $18.00/share for the preferred would equal $3.15/share FPI common on a forced redemption.
Interesting arbitrage as the preferred is not superior to the common if/when common shares get stressed.
Wonder if the LAND preferreds have such a provision? It's in the details where things get interesting.
Thanks for the info.
EKS |
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| To: E_K_S who wrote (34184) | 7/11/2018 10:48:48 PM | | From: Gridbird | | | | do Re: Do not own or follow but just saw FPI off 15% plus..? Tariffs?
Its definitely something to ponder. But $3 is still a good distance from after hours trades of $6.20. If some holes are in the thesis of the writer then one would think the conversion would not be in play. Its a casino game at this point....Or a Clint Eastwood moment... “Do I feel lucky? Well do ya punk?”. |
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| From: 1610lsd | 7/12/2018 8:20:15 AM | | | | | | 30 Day Federal Funds Futures Quotes Globex
Data from CME FF Futures..... Current Funds Rate @ 1.75% to 2.00%
Implied FF Rates...
August.....1.915%
Sept........1.945%
Dec.........2.195%
............................................................................... OPEN..............................###....
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