We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon
Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.
"Rare Metals"... benefitting from China shutting down access, and war drums pounding louder over time...
I've cherry picked my lists based on positive showings on the RRG... removing the laggards from view.
Clear leaders are three long familiar here... PPTA (gold/antimony), IDR (gold/REE'S) and AII.TO / ALMTF (tungsten/moly)...
IDR is profitable, now, from ongoing operation of the expanded Golden Chest mine... which they've been more or less actively mining for as long as I've followed them, under prior name and from the low pennies... It's now NYSE American listed and optionable... and a solid enough example of the concept of pairing high value exploration projects with backing from gold mining profits... Zacks actively touting it as a strong buy for the last 8 days... taking it from ~ $10.50 to almost $14 in that time.
PPTA still working to get mining... finally nearing the end of the pipeline of regulatory hurdles... and, like LAC... suddenly finding support in the form of billions in government money simplifying the money hunt... But, their focus is now on the "byproduct"... antimony... which they long avoided addressing to focus on gold... Antimony is now selling for $25,000 per metric ton... as China shuts off supply outside China. That's a price per ton which, to win the same $ from mining gold, would require "average" ore grades of 10 oz/ton.
Of course, that short term benefit in elevated prices is not a function of real shortages... which also creates price risks in the opposite direction... as China might Jervois them at some point... making it useful to baseline performance expectations in numbers based on gold... not artificially inflated antimony prices. It's trading off its recent news driven highs at $9.25... down around $8 now... "more" being dependent on outcomes in and timing of "events" we can't precisely predict, now... but, as a function of scaling, they're likely closer than LAC to putting their mine in operation...
Edit... FWIW... should also note... like Mountain Pass... its another property I tried to buy at the bottom of the bust post 2008...
Almonty is my favorite whipping boy... control of the company being far to parochial... and it is thus quite badly mismanaged... with self interested insiders well insulated from suffering any real consequences from their serial underperformance... or their serial dissembling about it. It should have been in production years ago... and that it is STILL not in production... is shocking. That persistent problem... of management dithering and avoiding accountability while the sand runs out of the hour glass... generates quite considerable risks that are greatly understated... as at some point the banks are highly likely to require an accounting for missed milestones... and it will be shareholders who suffer for it when it happens.
But, yes... they are, unfortunately, both smugly corrupt in that way... AND the only real "large scale deposit" alternative to China that is a potential near term supplier of tungsten... which is critical to particular high strength steel production... and has many obvious military uses. The goal has always been to get it in production before "the next war"... which now appears it is a goal that might not be met... potentially causing the failure of U.S. and European defenses in any protracted conflict. But, also, South Korea is not exactly isolated from war risks in the event... making it likely depleted uranium will be more widely used.
It might be useful to look at U.S. and Canadian explorers... for overlooked potentials... in case "events" conspire to require that PPTA fails to deliver. If PPTA fails... who is "next up" and most likely to benefit ? And, which might obviate the management and finance risks ? Right now... I just don't know... but if out there... they're probably deeply discounted now...
The rest ? Maybe keep an eye on them...
The Aristocrats (tm) | Stock Discussion ForumsShare
Doesn't apply to Cobalt (JRVMF... winning another week of deferrals... not announced until only three days left) or "generic" REE yet at this point...
But, expect, given the nature of the drivers, that the risks might spread there, in time, too... probably only when events dictate... timelines imposing "short fuses" in risks of conflict, and "longer" fuses imposing limits in putting dormant or slow moving projects back on a fast track to relevance...
NMREF is not "generic" REE... but lots of terbium and dysprosium... high value heavies.
"Darrin Campbell, President of Namibia Critical Metals stated: "We are very pleased with the continued success of our development approach at Lofdal"... And, he's right in that it is working in delivering steady progress, while advancing the project entirely on others dime at very low cost to the company.
But... with news the progress from 12 years of effort is getting them "to the PEA stage"... it badly understates both what they have accomplished... and the value of the JOGMEC participation. The stock trades now at all time chart lows... at $0.022... maybe 10% below the low of $0.025 in late 2015? But, today... we're nearer market peaks than hitting the market lows, as back then ? It doesn't appear there's any dilution going on... and insiders own 70%... but a bit of dilution would at least drive an effort to win fair value for shares sold ? Patience required, of course, long term, in the mining stocks... true by definition in pairing market function along with "buy low"... but JOGMEC seems solidly hard wired to meeting minimums in effort... that are likely to force them into making decisions reactively... and too late ?
Management... also not trying overly hard... since prior management retired... just letting it drift into sleep while JOGMEC drives the bus...
It will happen when it happens...
For now it seems the game is... "how low could it go" ? When will it bottom ? When will it be time to load up ? And, when will they finally be forced to make decisions ?
And, as with the other rare metals... when will the scarcity be made to matter... in a fickle market so wildly detached from any realistic ability to determine a valid fundamental valuation...
Buy on sale... not when shares are put on sale... but when "final clearance" discounts are set to expire...
Still hard to say when that is... when terbium might be made unobtainium next week ?
The Aristocrats (tm) | Stock Discussion ForumsShare
The latest wave of sanctions comes a month after the electoral authority declared that Maduro was reelected for a third consecutive term, despite electoral data published by the opposition that suggested he lost by a wide margin. Protests against Maduro’s claim of victory swept the capital of Caracas and other cities in the days after the vote, with more than 2,400 Venezuelans arrested—including more than 100 minors—in the fiercest crackdown of his 11-year rule.
Of course, they know that there couldn't possibly have been that many votes for Maduro... because all those Maduro voters are now living (and voting) in the U.S. /s
The action against Venezuela looks like gas-lighting...
They're hoping that by posturing as opposing (the fact of) "fake elections" in Venezuela... you'll avoid noting (the fact that) the U.S. elections appear to be at least equally as corrupt... while the U.S. own abuses of the political opposition resisting the usurpation of power here... appear to be equal to those in Venezuela...
There are political prisoners being held in the U.S. today... because they object to and protest against fraudulent elections depriving them their rights... and depriving the country of legitimate leadership... depriving the country of fundamental legitimacy... The usurpers fail to enforce the laws... in order to foster and use the resulting lawlessness as a means of clinging to power... using it to engineer "votes"... by fraudulent means including even illegally organizing an invasion of immigrants... purposed for illegitimately importing new "voters"... in the thinly veiled fraud that is enabling illegal immigrants to vote... when the voters we have... know better than to vote for them...
Noted in prior post... that clinging to power by election fraud... is "the same thing"... as what we see in the frauds being practiced to sustain "control" over the economy... again, clinging to power by knowing frauds practiced in misrepresenting economic reality...
That they have been purposefully lying about employment data... is THE SAME THING as lying about vote totals... and done for the same reasons... ?
And it is unavoidably true... that there is convergence between the fact of (overt - openly conducted) corruption in elections... in which the massive effort enabling (and subsidizing) immigration fraud is only one part... while the parallel fact of corruption in government... telling lies masking truths about the economy... is "more of the same" ?
It is not "coincidence" that the events we're seeing occurring today... in relation to the economy... are no only "parallels" in relation to the frauds being practiced... but are fully synched to the same timelines on which elections occur ?
The U.S. today... is a hollow caricature of itself... which is equally true whether considering the values once attached to our rights [free speech, anyone ?]... to which they still pretend to pay homage when that is politically convenient... as it is true of the economy... which was once the freedom driven engine powering the global economy by virtue of the creative capacities of free people expressed through free markets... which is today a tightly controlled fiction and an empty husk... far removed from free market functions.
That those are "the same thing"... is necessary to understand... if you hope to have any ability to understand both the need for change... the fact of its prevention being the source of the problems we face... and the likely sequences in events as change occurs anyway... in spite of their efforts to prevent it... as the efforts in obstruction of change... have persisted long enough to ensure "change" will occur of necessity.... if not by the peaceful expedients in "continual revolution" enabled by free markets and free and fair elections... then by the inevitable in the collapse of corruption struggling under the unsustainable weight of its own deceptions...
The global economy is imploding... It's been proceeding in slow motion for a long time...
And, now, it seems... we're at the point of transition from "slowly at first"... to, "and then all at once"...
One can hope we will see transformational change... that corrects the excesses, abuses and frauds of the corrupt leaders inflicted upon us... without it requiring... or in any case being attended by violence.
But, history provides few reasons for optimism... given the desperate and deluded will so frequently resort to violence as a first option...
Whether that occurs as "violence in the streets" in result of the failure of elections to reflect the popular will... or as "violence organized by the state" in seeking to illegitimately sustain "control" over others...
You should expect "blood in the streets"... as more than euphemism... with few geographic limits...
The Aristocrats (tm) | Stock Discussion ForumsShare
In Germany, last week, the entrenched powers that just lost the elections... were openly discussing and publicly coordinating efforts to ensure that the winners of the elections... would not be able to govern as the winners of the elections...
It's so "in your face"... its amazing that people still fail to see it...
The Aristocrats (tm) | Stock Discussion ForumsShare
Not just me... Look at a sampling of recent posts from Ray Dalio ?
A wide ranging and " mostly" more well tempered example... that sort of aggregates a lot of recent work in a less detailed and more concise presentation of the major points...
Dalio's approach to the study of history has always distinguished Dalio's views from most others... He's careful to study things in historical context where others are not... which has his work often far better grounded than that of others who lack the age, and thus the experience of "going through what we're going through again now"... His focus on study of proofs in history fills those voids others blunder through...
The Aristocrats (tm) | Stock Discussion ForumsShare
Gas hit a seven week high today... on the back of a smaller than expected storage build, higher than expected flows to LNG export plants, and continuing declines in production throughout the last month...
The market has already adjusted to "the solution to low prices is low prices"... as over production spurred by higher prices earlier in the year...
Still to come... the end of summer recognition of cooler weather... which tends to generate an annual spike in gas prices from late September, October, occasionally persisting into November...
This time around... seasonality in demand may collide with LNG plants coming on line and ramping up exports... and with dynamics related to shifting patterns in investors choices given declining fortunes in the stock market... natural gas usually drifting higher as markets head lower...
The Aristocrats (tm) | Stock Discussion ForumsShare