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"Worse than 2008"... is probably true. How can it not be, in the "everything bubble"... when the bubble pops ?
That said... look at a chart for the S&P in 2007/2008... and what you see is... just like in 2007, the market peaked in June... and after that it had some bad days... But, then, the Great Recession "officially began" (but, when was it reported as having begun ?) in December 2007... and the stock market didn't actually crash until March of 2008... <insert rants on history of GFC here>... before they "papered over" the problems...
So, "it's different this time" always being true... HOW is it different ?
I'm not wanting to focus on that today in terms of "feature"... so let's dispose of that quickly, in which I'd say:
First, that "papering over" the dumpster fire revealed in 2008... with "we got this" using derivatives and XXX leverage... is unlikely to contain much less enable resolving problems. It is virtually a guarantee that the error in origination of a problem... left unchecked... will make problems vastly larger over time: Youtube Short: Door to Hell Burning For 50 YearsAnd, related to that in time (say, from 1987)... the banks awareness... and the BIS post 2010 planned suppression enabling banks in stockpiling gold.
Second, MOPE has "worked"... only in terms of significantly delaying market recognition of reality - that in other times would have been factored into market pricing a long time ago... fostering "real" corrections of errors in policy... actually enabling "fixing it" versus preventing it being fixed by suspending market functions. In this cycle the market has floated on by "bad news" that has been deliberately not reported... as if it didn't exist... by virtue of official conspiracy to not report it. So, yeah... the risk inherent in the market bubble that has been inflated [deliberately... like wiring a building for demolition... without issuing eviction notices] is vastly larger than most people are able to recognize, now... even those who are aware of it likely not fully understating what an unwinding might look like in a worst case outcome.
That done, in context here today... I'm asking... "HOW is it different ?"... purely in relation to the "same" elements in timing and degree... as they relate to the metronome in Fed policy, its impacts, and the markets [MOPE impaired] ability recognize and value "reality"... and to keep time.
The Fed being "late to the party"... is not quite right ? "Late to awareness the party is over", maybe ? But, then... late "by how much" ?
And, if the Fed is "late" in recognizing reality... it seems to me the market is only "more so" ? Those saying "the Fed doesn't set rates... the market does"... may be right, as a technical matter... with the Fed merely announcing market driven reality, belatedly... but, all that says is... the market is just as wrong as the Fed and more so... if and as it drives the Fed's errors... and as the numbers don't lie in terms of market pricing consistently lagging changing reality... if not lagging Fed action... still just as badly lagging market reality as the Fed... with the difference between the Fed and the market being less relevant than their shared divergences from reality. If the government is lying about reality to "spoof" markets and the delay the Feds actions... the market and the Fed are both equally as complicit in wanting to be lied to... corruptly, willingly going along with it... it not being just the media refusing to speak truth?
That is rather the point in what was broken in 2008... remaining broken, now... as markets don't work any more... with control removed from the aggregate in aware opinion enabling freely made choices... to be invested instead in "control" ? It is that control... which allows errors in steering to force prices to diverge more wildly from value over time... and impose markets vesting in the resulting errors in lieu of attaching rewards to those seeing the reality with greater correctness.
In the prior event...
The Fed paused rate increases at 5.25% in July 2006 [versus pausing at ~5% in July 2023]. In 2007, the market peaked in June [just as it did in June of 2024]... as the Fed delayed cutting rates until August, [the same now, only to September in 2024], then, down to 4.75% in October 2007... 4.5% in November...
As the Fed dithered... the recession "officially" began in December of 2007... with rates at 4.25%... Rates were 4% in January... 3% in February... 2.5% in March. After some initial feints lower from June of 2007, the market finally crashed in earnest in March of 2008... and the Fed dropped rates to 2% in April of 2008.
Six months after the markets crashed... it was clear by September of 2008 that the inputs made were not having the desired effect... That set of problems in the nature of the Fed's blind spots re cause and effect and timing... are only much larger today... given "sluggish transmission effects" in the aggregate, given the "supply chain" issues, and other trade war related friction, in impacts imposed by "the rest of the global economy"... the global economy being deeply interconnected, by design... while polity pretends economies operate in isolation from the reality of the extant market structures.
Resuming cuts, finally... from 2% in September 2008... to 1% in October... down to 0.50% in November... and 0% in December 2008... where rates stayed until August of 2015... because the lagged responses fostered a depth in economic damage being done that nothing they were willing to allow... other than passage of time... was able to address the problem...
“Since the Committee’s last meeting, labor market conditions have deteriorated, and the available data indicate that consumer spending, business investment, and industrial production have declined,” noted the FOMC in its statement accompanying the December 16, 2008 decision. “Financial markets remain quite strained and credit conditions tight.”
"It was an almost historical level of understatement."
More correct would have been "sorry, we killed it... but we still won't allow any real correction of error to occur"... because "correction" requires "change"... and "change" requires recognition or admission of error, punishment and correction of error... requiring a surrender to failure as the fact, and then the excision and retirement of the failure and its drivers... which those with an greater interest in maintaining control... over an interest in better function... will not tolerate... The failed policies that led to 2008... resulted in those who created the problem being promoted... instead of "corrected". Back then, they broke the system and avoided being held responsible... Today, they fully control it... and, only more, refuse to allow their sustained failures to be a reason to separate them from power... In theory, in spite of its failure in the prior cycle, you get another chance to vote for change, or not, in November... ?
Those are two sides of " the same thing"... as revolution through change being enabled by voting for it... and change enabled by free market functions as people "vote" with choices expressed in $... each operate to prevent big failures... by enabling continual small corrections... instead of entrenching systemic corruption.
Obstruct change by voting or free market functions... and change will be less frequent... and vastly more destructive when it occurs... by violence instead of votes... systemic collapse instead of correction...
Back then, in 2008... "American families saw their home values collapse, and the stock market didn’t reach its bottom until early 2009. The unemployment rate grew from 5% in December 2007 to 10% by October 2009." And that was in consequence of... "NOT change"... with the necessary correction being prevented ?
Given implementation of "control" since then, versus "change"... how does "then" compare to today ?
"Lagging recognition"... is a correct enough partial answer... as liars replace leaders... and as people refuse to... don't want to... believe things have gone that terribly wrong...
The end is near... but not yet here ? Recognition events... precede change...
The market hasn't crashed yet ? Housing prices haven't imploded, yet. The inevitable global financial crisis "on steroids", with an unknown scale in unchecked derivatives risks as fuel... all that being "the same" as 2008 only "more so"... all which has been delayed in recognition since 2008 while the risks were growing massively larger...and it hasn't begun to unwind, yet ? Recognition is growing, now. And, this time, there is both massively larger debt risk, and no easy escapes... pairing to impose a resulting lack of systemic flexibility... It's far, far worse than what existed in 2008 ? Add in currency risks... and an ongoing acceleration from "competition" to trade wars... ramping into what is shaping up as pre-positioning for the start of (or, expansion into) global conflict... as "WW III" ? None of this is "new" or "news" to those paying attention. But... it does define the context, today... and thus it alters the meaning inherent in Powell's statement as "the time has come"... for long delayed recognition events to begin... all of which events are linked across a wide range of interests... including "finance, trade, economics"... without end limits there.
The "understatement" of employment problems in December 2008... is only massively greater today... with the government conspiring to falsify reporting of the statistics ? How does that awareness... of the divide between reality and "spoofed" awareness... alter the calculus in computing "where we are now" versus the correlation with historical timelines ?
It perhaps puts the Fed roughly... how far... behind where they were in 2009 ?
Does the description in the "historical level of understatement" delivered in December of 2008... understate the reality extant today far more... at a time well prior to the events that preceded "getting there"... then ?
It may be poised to be presented as "an accelerated entry" event... when awareness is corrected to reality in things like "spoofed" employment statistics... still with election outcomes (and control of power) hinging on sustaining the public illusions "a little bit longer" ? But, then... who ever wins... likely holds "the bag" far more than "power"... as recognition events / reality proceeds to foster and force change at an accelerating pace... in spite of the pretensions of those who "rule over us"... who we grudgingly tolerate and mostly try to ignore. When "rule over us"... proves more than a bit inconvenient... that illusion will evaporate with others.
So, are we synched to "the start of events" in markets, today... on a mirrored time line parallel to that which began with the market decline in June... 2024 being a comparable with the decline in June of 2007 ?
Or, are we instead synched to a start of "larger" events in decline, and resulting change... on a time line that began long ago... with recognition of the reality only temporarily delayed... in 2007 - 2008... with change coming now... that cannot be similarly delayed, again... as the capacity no longer exists to absorb the impacts of failure... without failing ? What metrics apply to allow relevant situational awareness ? "Trust in media"... "trust in politicians"... "control" being exercised... but not able to be hidden ? Evidences of deliberate efforts in disruption and destabilization... no longer able to be hidden ? Nothing seems it is being successfully hidden, now... if you want to look ?
It looks, on the face of it... as if September 2024... mirrors September of 2007 in "market perception"... leading us to expect markets might sustain that pattern... perhaps crashing in March of 2025 as they did in March of 2008 ?
But, beyond "market perception"... it all looks different in relative position re the "economic reality" today ?
Back then... the Fed was "off" by six months, with rates held at 2% during a "pause" sustained from April to October. But, today ?
September 2024 in "stocks" seems to mirror where the market was in September of 2007... while September 2024 in employment... seems to mirror where the economy was in December of 2008...now putting the Fed "behind the curve" in the change required relative to the prior event by... five quarters ???
The market has dodged "market recognition events"... the economy has NOT dodged "economic reality" ?
And, the gap poised between the two... is a new and unique source of additional market "amplification" risk?
Employment reality today... the equivalent to that described in December 2008 (and perhaps far worse... even only if 2008 standards in metrics were applied ?)... That says the Fed has held rates too high by 5% for over a year and a half... as having held rates at over 5% from April of 2023 to September 2024...
In 2008... the damage done by that error in "too high, too long"... in result of under-estimating the real weakness and attendant risks that "control" imposes... required rates being held at zero for almost 7 years (Dec 2008 - Jan 2016)...was imposed by waiting 6 months too long to begin cutting with rates held over 5%... and then, again, with rates being held too high at 2% for another 6 months... before being reduced to zero.
Average it out over time... as rates in 2007-2008 being held too high by 3.5% for a year...
In 2024... rates were again held too high, too long... held 6 months too long at 5% too high from "stocks" view, in hindsight... exactly as true now, if seeing it as a strict "market" parallel between 2007 and 2024...
But, from an "employment" perspective... today, rates have again been held too high, too long, by 5%... first after delaying raising them for over a year as wrong about "transitory"... then raising much too far, much too fast... as I noted here in posts re "over-steering"... and where it leads... But... "too high, too long"...
1.) for over 18 months... as the difference between the September 2007 start of "rates cuts" and the December 2008 "employment picture"... given we have the December 2008 employment picture right now (and worse)... with stocks still blindly stuck back in September 2007... when this is December 2008 in the reality in employment.
2.) too high, too long by an additional margin defined as the degree too which , and the period of time over which, reality in employment has diverged from market perception of reality... Include in that not only the margins in error imposed by "spoofing" in official reports... but also the errors in divergences imposed by changes in reporting standards over time... when "reality" doesn't diverge from "reality"... because "we" opt to cheat in what is counted and what is not... and pretend the fake numbers are what matters, not the reality.
The reality is worse than perception by another factor... as errors adopted in accounting tend to propagate in amplifications of the errors in math enabled... as accepting errors in inputs without corrections... is at least additive in fostering a growing and persistent percentage of "fake" values in baselines... which are used in subsequent computational iterations... resulting in applying a growing bias favoring error amplification...
"Believing your own propaganda"... without keeping a separate set of rigorously accurate books... introduces growing errors... requiring "it's vastly worse than you think"... (in performance, as corruption) within a range of potentials that is a time function of the actual aggregates in accumulation and amplification of errors.
That results in... and requires... cultural corruption... society accepting "go along to get along" with the awareness that " it's all fake, anyway"... and thus, it "doesn't matter"... because... nothing to be done ?
That's a submission to corruption which persists until reality reasserts itself... and it turns out that errors in appraisal, and the differences between "real" and "fake"... do matter... and quite a lot. That's as true in things like (Russian/Chinese/American) military capability... as it is in real and relative values and capacities in economies... and, ultimately, in the underlying (relative) value inherent in competing ideas and beliefs... with (ability in perception of, and) rigor in attachment to truth (and reality) ultimately being empowering... while "relativism" in "all choices are equal"... as inducing others or detaching oneself from connection to reality by choice, as is often fostered by those seeking control over others, given it is both "surrender to fraud", as "submission to control"... enabled by fostering the requisite lack of judgement in others... ?
All which to say... don't be complacent re timelines based on misreading history... and don't ignore that "soft landings" require... that none of what I'm addressing is "real" as a source of risk.
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"Rare Metals"... benefitting from China shutting down access, and war drums pounding louder over time...
I've cherry picked my lists based on positive showings on the RRG... removing the laggards from view.
Clear leaders are three long familiar here... PPTA (gold/antimony), IDR (gold/REE'S) and AII.TO / ALMTF (tungsten/moly)...
IDR is profitable, now, from ongoing operation of the expanded Golden Chest mine... which they've been more or less actively mining for as long as I've followed them, under prior name and from the low pennies... It's now NYSE American listed and optionable... and a solid enough example of the concept of pairing high value exploration projects with backing from gold mining profits... Zacks actively touting it as a strong buy for the last 8 days... taking it from ~ $10.50 to almost $14 in that time.
PPTA still working to get mining... finally nearing the end of the pipeline of regulatory hurdles... and, like LAC... suddenly finding support in the form of billions in government money simplifying the money hunt... But, their focus is now on the "byproduct"... antimony... which they long avoided addressing to focus on gold... Antimony is now selling for $25,000 per metric ton... as China shuts off supply outside China. That's a price per ton which, to win the same $ from mining gold, would require "average" ore grades of 10 oz/ton.
Of course, that short term benefit in elevated prices is not a function of real shortages... which also creates price risks in the opposite direction... as China might Jervois them at some point... making it useful to baseline performance expectations in numbers based on gold... not artificially inflated antimony prices. It's trading off its recent news driven highs at $9.25... down around $8 now... "more" being dependent on outcomes in and timing of "events" we can't precisely predict, now... but, as a function of scaling, they're likely closer than LAC to putting their mine in operation...
Edit... FWIW... should also note... like Mountain Pass... its another property I tried to buy at the bottom of the bust post 2008...
Almonty is my favorite whipping boy... control of the company being far to parochial... and it is thus quite badly mismanaged... with self interested insiders well insulated from suffering any real consequences from their serial underperformance... or their serial dissembling about it. It should have been in production years ago... and that it is STILL not in production... is shocking. That persistent problem... of management dithering and avoiding accountability while the sand runs out of the hour glass... generates quite considerable risks that are greatly understated... as at some point the banks are highly likely to require an accounting for missed milestones... and it will be shareholders who suffer for it when it happens.
But, yes... they are, unfortunately, both smugly corrupt in that way... AND the only real "large scale deposit" alternative to China that is a potential near term supplier of tungsten... which is critical to particular high strength steel production... and has many obvious military uses. The goal has always been to get it in production before "the next war"... which now appears it is a goal that might not be met... potentially causing the failure of U.S. and European defenses in any protracted conflict. But, also, South Korea is not exactly isolated from war risks in the event... making it likely depleted uranium will be more widely used.
It might be useful to look at U.S. and Canadian explorers... for overlooked potentials... in case "events" conspire to require that PPTA fails to deliver. If PPTA fails... who is "next up" and most likely to benefit ? And, which might obviate the management and finance risks ? Right now... I just don't know... but if out there... they're probably deeply discounted now...
The rest ? Maybe keep an eye on them...
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Doesn't apply to Cobalt (JRVMF... winning another week of deferrals... not announced until only three days left) or "generic" REE yet at this point...
But, expect, given the nature of the drivers, that the risks might spread there, in time, too... probably only when events dictate... timelines imposing "short fuses" in risks of conflict, and "longer" fuses imposing limits in putting dormant or slow moving projects back on a fast track to relevance...
NMREF is not "generic" REE... but lots of terbium and dysprosium... high value heavies.
"Darrin Campbell, President of Namibia Critical Metals stated: "We are very pleased with the continued success of our development approach at Lofdal"... And, he's right in that it is working in delivering steady progress, while advancing the project entirely on others dime at very low cost to the company.
But... with news the progress from 12 years of effort is getting them "to the PEA stage"... it badly understates both what they have accomplished... and the value of the JOGMEC participation. The stock trades now at all time chart lows... at $0.022... maybe 10% below the low of $0.025 in late 2015? But, today... we're nearer market peaks than hitting the market lows, as back then ? It doesn't appear there's any dilution going on... and insiders own 70%... but a bit of dilution would at least drive an effort to win fair value for shares sold ? Patience required, of course, long term, in the mining stocks... true by definition in pairing market function along with "buy low"... but JOGMEC seems solidly hard wired to meeting minimums in effort... that are likely to force them into making decisions reactively... and too late ?
Management... also not trying overly hard... since prior management retired... just letting it drift into sleep while JOGMEC drives the bus...
It will happen when it happens...
For now it seems the game is... "how low could it go" ? When will it bottom ? When will it be time to load up ? And, when will they finally be forced to make decisions ?
And, as with the other rare metals... when will the scarcity be made to matter... in a fickle market so wildly detached from any realistic ability to determine a valid fundamental valuation...
Buy on sale... not when shares are put on sale... but when "final clearance" discounts are set to expire...
Still hard to say when that is... when terbium might be made unobtainium next week ?
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The latest wave of sanctions comes a month after the electoral authority declared that Maduro was reelected for a third consecutive term, despite electoral data published by the opposition that suggested he lost by a wide margin. Protests against Maduro’s claim of victory swept the capital of Caracas and other cities in the days after the vote, with more than 2,400 Venezuelans arrested—including more than 100 minors—in the fiercest crackdown of his 11-year rule.
Of course, they know that there couldn't possibly have been that many votes for Maduro... because all those Maduro voters are now living (and voting) in the U.S. /s
The action against Venezuela looks like gas-lighting...
They're hoping that by posturing as opposing (the fact of) "fake elections" in Venezuela... you'll avoid noting (the fact that) the U.S. elections appear to be at least equally as corrupt... while the U.S. own abuses of the political opposition resisting the usurpation of power here... appear to be equal to those in Venezuela...
There are political prisoners being held in the U.S. today... because they object to and protest against fraudulent elections depriving them their rights... and depriving the country of legitimate leadership... depriving the country of fundamental legitimacy... The usurpers fail to enforce the laws... in order to foster and use the resulting lawlessness as a means of clinging to power... using it to engineer "votes"... by fraudulent means including even illegally organizing an invasion of immigrants... purposed for illegitimately importing new "voters"... in the thinly veiled fraud that is enabling illegal immigrants to vote... when the voters we have... know better than to vote for them...
Noted in prior post... that clinging to power by election fraud... is "the same thing"... as what we see in the frauds being practiced to sustain "control" over the economy... again, clinging to power by knowing frauds practiced in misrepresenting economic reality...
That they have been purposefully lying about employment data... is THE SAME THING as lying about vote totals... and done for the same reasons... ?
And it is unavoidably true... that there is convergence between the fact of (overt - openly conducted) corruption in elections... in which the massive effort enabling (and subsidizing) immigration fraud is only one part... while the parallel fact of corruption in government... telling lies masking truths about the economy... is "more of the same" ?
It is not "coincidence" that the events we're seeing occurring today... in relation to the economy... are no only "parallels" in relation to the frauds being practiced... but are fully synched to the same timelines on which elections occur ?
The U.S. today... is a hollow caricature of itself... which is equally true whether considering the values once attached to our rights [free speech, anyone ?]... to which they still pretend to pay homage when that is politically convenient... as it is true of the economy... which was once the freedom driven engine powering the global economy by virtue of the creative capacities of free people expressed through free markets... which is today a tightly controlled fiction and an empty husk... far removed from free market functions.
That those are "the same thing"... is necessary to understand... if you hope to have any ability to understand both the need for change... the fact of its prevention being the source of the problems we face... and the likely sequences in events as change occurs anyway... in spite of their efforts to prevent it... as the efforts in obstruction of change... have persisted long enough to ensure "change" will occur of necessity.... if not by the peaceful expedients in "continual revolution" enabled by free markets and free and fair elections... then by the inevitable in the collapse of corruption struggling under the unsustainable weight of its own deceptions...
The global economy is imploding... It's been proceeding in slow motion for a long time...
And, now, it seems... we're at the point of transition from "slowly at first"... to, "and then all at once"...
One can hope we will see transformational change... that corrects the excesses, abuses and frauds of the corrupt leaders inflicted upon us... without it requiring... or in any case being attended by violence.
But, history provides few reasons for optimism... given the desperate and deluded will so frequently resort to violence as a first option...
Whether that occurs as "violence in the streets" in result of the failure of elections to reflect the popular will... or as "violence organized by the state" in seeking to illegitimately sustain "control" over others...
You should expect "blood in the streets"... as more than euphemism... with few geographic limits...
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In Germany, last week, the entrenched powers that just lost the elections... were openly discussing and publicly coordinating efforts to ensure that the winners of the elections... would not be able to govern as the winners of the elections...
It's so "in your face"... its amazing that people still fail to see it...
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Not just me... Look at a sampling of recent posts from Ray Dalio ?
A wide ranging and " mostly" more well tempered example... that sort of aggregates a lot of recent work in a less detailed and more concise presentation of the major points...
Dalio's approach to the study of history has always distinguished Dalio's views from most others... He's careful to study things in historical context where others are not... which has his work often far better grounded than that of others who lack the age, and thus the experience of "going through what we're going through again now"... His focus on study of proofs in history fills those voids others blunder through...
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Gas hit a seven week high today... on the back of a smaller than expected storage build, higher than expected flows to LNG export plants, and continuing declines in production throughout the last month...
The market has already adjusted to "the solution to low prices is low prices"... as over production spurred by higher prices earlier in the year...
Still to come... the end of summer recognition of cooler weather... which tends to generate an annual spike in gas prices from late September, October, occasionally persisting into November...
This time around... seasonality in demand may collide with LNG plants coming on line and ramping up exports... and with dynamics related to shifting patterns in investors choices given declining fortunes in the stock market... natural gas usually drifting higher as markets head lower...
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