| To: sense who wrote (5027) | 8/28/2024 6:25:48 PM | | From: sense | | | | Rackla Metals Stakes New Grad Property in Northwest Territories and Reports Intrusive Hosted High-Grade Gold Discovery
The sell off August 9 to 12 seemed rather overdone, to me... having RAK.V falling from $0.12 down to $0.05... and even a bit less in the last few days trading in the U.S., the Canadian $0.05 equivalent price being around $0.0375... and apparently its traded as low as $0.021 recently... even including today ?
But the selloff wasn't without reasons. They whiffed on two of three targets (results are still pending on a third) in exploring a high profile RIRGS prospect. It's still considered an interesting potential, at least... but the vectors taken looking for higher grade proved up lower grades nearer to and within the cores of the intrusive bodies where they'd hoped to find the grades increasing with depth and persisting into the structures...
Before that... they'd skipped out on most of the Victoria Gold / Yukon related price impacts others felt following the June 24 disaster at the Eagle Mine... and they mostly skipped the August 7 to 9 blood-letting in the shares of mining stocks, too... but once the bloom came off the rose with the negative exploration results... they took on a double portion of that whoop ass... on August 12... dropping from $0.12 on Friday to an open at $0.05 on Monday.
A bit too much, probably... given partial results from an active early stage explorer with a quite large land package... located in an highly prospective area... which still has huge swaths of high potential but un-staked ground. There's a serious "gold rush" ongoing in the region... following Snowline's discovery of RIRGS style mineralization... but, oddly... it seems a gold rush to which almost no one has paid much attention... before Victoria Gold's debacle... and after it... almost all the attention has ranged between "negative" and "apocalyptic"... with "doom and gloom" probably near the average.
Worth noting... compared with others in the region... that Rackla's Yukon risks are much less... as they've got more exposure than others do, still in the same geologic province... but just across the border to the east in Northwest Territories.
Also worth noting that the immediate moratorium on exploration in Yukon has ended... and Seabridge and Snowline are both actively engaged in exploration again. There are years of time necessarily arrayed between any exploration results and the sort of impacts as Victoria Gold's failures impose... in actually mattering in mine development. No one in Yukon seems to have any interest in downplaying the problems, there... or in fostering more of that sort of risk as was realized... including least of all the companies and investors in all those other efforts who are still engaged in exploring and mining... while doing so responsibly. Everyone seems to agree, now, that the regulatory efforts were and are underfunded, and under-manned... and were and are not manned by people as skilled or capable as they need to be. So, its good to see the industry is not ignoring the problem, but are taking a pro-active role in addressing the issues cooperatively.
Snowline has recently recovered all of what it shed during the period following the event... and Seabridge trades $1 higher today than it did before the accident...
Victoria Gold has been taken over by the courts... They've lost everything... and no one is going to quibble about that being a proper outcome. It appears the death penalty having been applied by Yukon is sufficient to mollify some of the more strident voices expecting they'd "get away with it".
Today's news from Rackla... pushing Yukon risks further aside... manages to combine all those positive elements noted above:. a highly intriguing new find... solid high grade samples in hand... sampling showing the relevant geochemical signatures.... and showing it in a place where the preferred structure is clearly apparent... in a recently staked prospect that is still surrounded by wide open land, which they're also now staking... And its not in Yukon...
And where the prior exploration failed to show gold values persisting into the intrusive bodies... the current find includes "quartz sulfide veining noted... within the intrusive body"... and includes grab samples of 15.85 g/t and 92.4 g/t... both taken from quartz veining in outcrop and from within the intrusive body...
That's a pretty solid indicator. "The preliminary observations from the intrusive stock and these results indicate a multiphase intrusion with stockwork veining, which may represent the upper carapace of a mineralized Reduced Intrusion-Related Gold System."
Fish on...
RAK.V bouncing hard... up 40% today... from $0.05 to $0.07.
RMETF... pretending to not notice ? Yahoo says it traded 13,500 shares... up from the average 2,000... even while Yahoo still lists it trading at $0.021 ? Yahoo's quality of coverage of smaller stocks, not just at RMETF, seems it is in steep decline. Their charting says the last trade was on August 23rd... on a red candle with 24,000 shares sold.
As RAK.V it traded "a bit more" today at 683,500, up from the average of 83,000.
The news seems it isn't very widely distributed as yet... It's not on Yahoo... and the two new buy recommendations on CEO.CA... both lagged the news being posted by 3 hours ? Hmmm.
Follow up work already done has results pending on rock chip sampling conducted across the exposed face of the intrusion in outcrop... so more news flow coming... |
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| To: sense who wrote (5029) | 8/29/2024 6:51:36 AM | | From: sense | | | | JRVMF Interim MD&A
Posted on SEDAR August 28 at 5:30 PM... its "news" dated from 31 July 2024 (Australia)... current as of 30 June 2024... It's just a repost of the News Release from 30 July re-titled as the Interim MD&A...
Mercuria has sold their bond holding to the remaining... sole... un-named... "Bond Holder"... leaving JRVMF owing around $144 million... with clocks ticking.
On August 20 they announced waivers were continued... as they have been repeatedly...
Jervois Global Secures Key Financial Covenant Waivers
But, the news in the tipranks link forgot to mention the extension was from August 20... to August 30... which is Friday.
Here's the announcement in complete form from ASX... cross-posted on Sedar dated the 21st...
They note "looking" for other lenders, investors... considering diversification projects or transactions... with "ongoing commercial discussions with the Holder"... whatever that means. [In the "MD&A" its stated as bullet points first: "Negotiations on potential asset sales and / or partnerships to support deleveraging continue to advance. Continued to work in conjunction with lenders on potential transactions to strengthen the balance sheet." And then again as this statement: "Engagement with lenders and third parties continued throughout the quarter, including due diligence across multiple Company assets. Jervois remains focused on delivering a solution that provides additional liquidity, achieves a sustainable capital structure, and diversifies the Group’s cash generation through transition from reliance on Jervois Finland as the sole operating asset, to a multi-operating asset portfolio over the medium term."
There's no shortage of quality "higher grade" gold/silver/copper etc. prospects in Idaho... and lots of other strategic metals interests... as at PPTA... or IDR... each having solid project backing with gold values ?
But... LAC (lithium) and PPTA (antimony) are taking down billions in government loans to support their start up of mining those "critical" minerals domestically... while Jervois' cobalt mine has already been built... its ready to go... but, there's nothing being put on the table to provide startup support for initiating domestic cobalt mining operations ?
The government has funded them in doing some additional exploration... or will re-imburse them for doing it... which is nice... and by all accounts its been successful... as noted in the "MD&A".
But, then... "End of June 2024 cash of US$21.3 million was lower than the previous [End of March] quarter-end balance of US$26.6 million"... and they explain the decline... and... "The Group’s current cash balance is US$14.6 million2"... and the only explanation is the footnote 2: "Cash balance is as of 28 July 2024."
Burning through $7 million in July... how ? ...why ? Since they don't have a mine working... had to buy enough new metal inventory to keep production going ?
The news notes "Foreign Entity Of Concern" rules are being put in play... and will begin to drive demand for domestic product as government contractors (at least) will have to provide proofs of origin with traceability...
But, they say... that shift is happening a lot more slowly than expected... and it might leave them twisting in the wind for a year or more... unless Commerce and/or DOD... and the EU... suddenly become insistent ?
Shares are down by half since June... given the lack of forward visibility... and the recent punt from August 20 to August 30... not exactly providing investors with a clear view of a path forward or any warm fuzzies...
They "should" have cash to keep them going another Q or 2... but may not... The collection of parts... spread between Australia, Finland, Brazil, and Idaho....might make sense if all of it is making money... Perhaps they'll pull a rabbit out of a hat... given the "critical" nature of the interest ?
Or... at least... hope to see them prove, again, that the lenders really are "supportive"... beyond Friday ? |
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| From: sense | 8/29/2024 7:14:21 PM | | | | | | Lode Gold (LOD.V / SBMIF) and Fancamp Exploration (FNC.V / FNCJF) Strategic Transaction
Lode Gold Signs $3.5 Million Strategic Alliance; Creating One of the Largest Prospective Land Packages in New Brunswick
Fancamp Announces Transaction with Lode Gold Resources to Advance New Brunswick and Yukon Mineral Properties
The deal consists of a couple of transactions in a defined sequence of events:
1. Fancamp investment in Lode Gold: $500,000 for 14,285,714 special warrants (“Lode Gold Special Warrants”) on a private placement basis, at an issue price of $0.035 per Lode Gold Special Warrant. Each special warrant, upon completion of the Spin Out [of Gold Orogen / Spin Co], will convert to one common share of Lode Gold and one 5-year Lode Gold share purchase warrant with an exercise price of $0.05 per share. If fully exercised, the warrant subscription proceeds will total an additional $714,286;
[Check terms of Warrants in relation to conversion in consolidation transactions ?]
2. Lode Gold Spinout of Gold Orogen: Gold Orogen will be a Yukon focused explorer. "Lode Gold will transfer to Spin Co, Gold Orogen, both its Golden Culvert mineral property located in Selwyn Basin, Tombstone Belt, southeastern Yukon, and its nearby Win mineral property located in the Tombstone Belt, southeastern Yukon." "Lode Gold will undertake a spin-out transaction of Spin Co (the “Spin Out”) pursuant to which each shareholder of Lode Gold will receive Spin Co shares for each common share of Lode Gold (each, a “Lode Gold Share”) held on the effective date of the Spin Out, whereby Spin Co will become a reporting issuer".
3. Conditional Spinout Terms: Lode Gold will "Complete the Spin Out and list [Gold Orogen] in a Canadian stock exchange and raise an aggregate of $1,500,000 by March 31, 2025". "In the case the Spin Out is not completed by March 31, 2025", or "if Gold Orogen is unable to raise in part or whole the aggregate of $1,500,000" by March 31, 2025, then, "the special warrants will automatically convert and Lode Gold will issue to Fancamp an additional 10% [~1,428,571 shares ?] of the Lode Gold shares and Lode Gold warrants to be issued on conversion of the special warrants."
Not a condition of the deal, but practical... and previously approved back in July... Lode Gold will reverse 1 for 10 prior to the Spin... reducing shares from 378 million to a more workable 38 million... also likely making the math on the spin a bit more linear.
4. Fancamp investment in Gold Orogen: "Fancamp will invest $2,500,000 into Spin Co (the “Fancamp Investment”) in exchange for such number of common shares of Spin Co (“Spin Co Shares”) as is equal to 19.9% of the outstanding Spin Co Shares on an undiluted basis, after completion of the Spin Out (defined below). A portion of the Fancamp Investment will be completed through an indirect flow through offering by Spin Co which result in Spin Co receiving approximately $3,000,000 in proceeds". Immediately after completion of the Spin Out, Fancamp will hold 19.9% of the issued and outstanding shares of Spin Co (before taking into consideration any financings completed by Spin Co in excess of the $1,500,000). For so long as Spin Co holds at least 10% of the issued and outstanding shares of Spin Co, Fancamp will have the right to: (i) nominate a Director for election to the Board of Spin Co; and (ii) participate in any further financings of Spin Co to allow it to maintain its interest in Spin Co".
Gold Orogen will be funded with a total of $4.5 million from Lode Gold/Gold Orogen raising $1.5 million in the Spin, with Fancamp also investing $2.5 million of a planned $3 million raise. The transaction as contemplated values the fully funded Gold Orogen at $12.5 million... with ~23.7% owned by Fancamp, and 76.3% held by Lode Gold / Gold Orogen, and, post-spin, by the (new and old) Lode Gold shareholders other than Fancamp. Lode Gold's (or current shareholders) portion... valued at $9.54 million... vs a current market cap of $11.34 million. Notably, the $1.5 million raise is dilutive of Gold Orogen... not Lode Gold.
5. Gold Orogen / Fancamp Joint Venture: "Lode Gold will transfer all of its interests in its McIntyre Brook mineral property located in New Brunswick (the “McIntyre Brook Property”) and Fancamp will transfer all of its interests in the Riley Brook mineral property located in New Brunswick (the “Riley Brook Property”) to a newly incorporated joint-venture entity (“JV Co”) in which Fancamp and Spin Co will each own 50% of the outstanding shares (the “JV Co Shares”), and for which Fancamp will be the Operator".
Gold Origin will focus on Yukon.... seen here in the regional context, on trend with Snowline, and tucked in neatly between Seabridge's (ex Golden Predator's) 3 Aces project, and Rackla's Rak and Flat projects:
The JV with Fancamp as operator will focus on New Brunswick... seen here in regional context:
Lode Gold will focus on California... in a context all its own... per usual.
[I was expecting Lode Gold might try to combine with Puma... and it might still make sense for Puma to combine with the JV... But, in terms of partners, having Fancamp as the operator of the JV is vastly better for the JV, Gold Orogen, and Lode Gold. Their contribution to the JV was acquired, or announced, two months ago... as they acquired it by staking. They own an active zinc mine... sport a P/E of 5... and with no debt have $28 million in the bank... with the proven ability to raise more... and "many irons in the fire".
I don't see it listed on their project pages... but in announcing departure of a director, they note: "The Corporation wishes him well in his other endeavours and will continue working with Mr. Ferron as we jointly advance the [now mostly consolidated] Shining Tree Joint Venturein South Timmins with PTX Metals Inc.[PANXF], of which Mr. Ferron is the President and CEO". FWIW, they now own the southern extensions along the fault structures I was looking at closely "back in the day"... now worth looking at, again ?]
6. Gold Orogen Exploration Funding: Of the $4.5 million [to be] raised, $3.42 million will be allocated to exploration as: "An aggregate amount of approximately $ 1.86 million will be allocated for [funding Gold Orogen's half of the ?] exploration activities for the New Brunswick JV and approximately $1.56 million will be allocated for exploration activities in Yukon. [Rackla raised $4.65 million to fund exploration in 2024.]
7. Lode Gold retains 100% ownership of 3,351 acres of 100% owned private land in Mariposa, California... five square miles of property, near Agua Fria... that is the remnant core of the original 44,387-acre Fremont Ranch... Las Mariposas... along with the mineral rights, and the Fremont Gold project.
This from six years ago...
This from one hundred sixty six years ago...
Lots of history... some of it well documented...
But still shockingly little effort, regionally, has been applied using modern exploration techniques to put the volume of the historical mining efforts in modern geological context with a high enough resolution to have it be useful...
Enough on this one today... |
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| To: sense who wrote (4607) | 8/29/2024 7:49:52 PM | | From: sense | | | | Posted back on March 14:
MWSNF / MAW.V Mawson (Finland / Sweden) owns 51% of SGX.AX (Australia)
Mawson's Subsidiary SXG Drills 2,318 g/t Gold Over 1.0 m in Best Hole at Sunday Creek
Within broader Interval 455.3 m @ 7.2 g/t Au (uncut) Traversing 12 High-Grade Vein Sets
==================
Recently, Mawson agreed with SXG.AX (not SGX.AX) to acquire the half it doesn't already own...
SXG'S [SXG.AX] market cap is $632 million AUD... which is $430 million in USD...
Mawson's [MWSNF] owns half of SXG... and its market cap is $222 million USD ? About right ?
SXG continues drilling good values...
What's it going to be worth ? |
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| To: sense who wrote (5032) | 8/29/2024 8:00:44 PM | | From: sense | | | | Fremont Gold... FRERF... (unrelated to Lode Gold)... shifted focus to Armenia a while back...
Recently, Teck bought 6%...
After that, they hired a new CEO... the new guy having deep experience in capital markets.
Former CEO is now President... and will remain, now focused on managing operations in Armenia...
I'd guess they "know something"... have plans...
And implementation of plans will require $$$...
Maybe, plan a raise... after they drop some news ?
Haven't done any DD beyond that... |
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| From: sense | 9/2/2024 1:40:14 PM | | | | | | Natural Gas
As followers here well know... I follow nat gas... and occasionally trade it with leverage as the BOIL/KOLD pair. And, once again, its getting to be time to pay closer attention to that trade...
Currently, BOIL is bumping bottom at under $8.75... but hit a low of $8.13 on August 5th. The chart screamed buy in mid July... but I demurred... and continue to wait for it. The chart today... is definitely "lower"... but, it shows a couple of reasons to continue waiting for it. The NVI, for one. is rolling over, showing smart money sneaking out of the trade. The RRG components are both "just" below 100... the relative strength at 99.22, the momentum at 96.39, both rounding into a low... which is quite likely to roll over and move a bit lower... even if only briefly. PMO (-7.86) is gently rolling over into lower, and COPP (-23.72) is down already and continuing lower, while money flow is in a sharp periodic decline, for now.
Still, I'm not negative on the trade... but, the chart says "wait for it" and I shall. Nat gas tends to be a steady outperformer throughout the breadth of major market declines... but that, as is true of other commodities, doesn't mean you should expect it will soar on a really bad day in the market ? Drift continues, for now...
That risk in "really bad days" in the market is probably coming, soon, too... around about mid-September to md-October... with the Fed set to cut rates... and the market, in spite of the touts usual propaganda, seems at least somewhat passingly aware "that's not good for stocks".
But, when might we expect the market to crash ? [And with interest in more than just putting on a trade in BOIL ?] Thus far, the Fed has kicked the can as long as they could... pretending to believe government employment numbers. Now, its up to Treasury to carry Kamala's water for her, dragging her along in spite of herself... and they are trying... with the magical PPT $ flows now providing the mysterious liquidity as sufficient to deliver "no visible means" along with the support.
That will end "soon"... some say "scheduled" for a sea change on Sept 15th... as a bureaucratic function... but perhaps more as a bureaucratic "handoff" to enable pinning it on the Fed ? But, even rate cuts [fully expected with the next Fed meeting, Sept 17-18] being driven by the economy imploding doesn't always result in immediate market declines... given some too obstinately resist gaining awareness in the reason(s) for the move. Today, more than ever, the market's upward bias is both thoughtless... hardwired... and consistently front run by the machines.
But, over-balancing all of that... history suggests (which, in current context should be "screams") that "things tend to work out" to have markets "not interfere" with incumbent's re-election chances. But, also... history says... by the end of September... it doesn't matter any more. Voters tend not to weigh short term market events at all heavily in considering how they will vote. By late September... opinions are largely set... and there's likely a slight bias in favor of incumbents fostered by enabling a bit of additional anxiety... some deluded few thinking there's greater safety in the status quo versus "risky" change. And, without doubt, that's going to be true for most suite-dwellers on Wall Street... slaved to "the system"... in which they trust.
So, markets down... and the commodities likely down with them on "crash" days... and THEN nat gas should drift higher as the focus turns to awareness that "its fall... and it gets cold in winter"... and gas is useful as it keeps people warm.
So, keeping an eye on the things... expect natty to continue to bump along... above its March lows... for another week or two... but, perhaps... not continuing the drift past mid October ?
BOIL in red versus natty...
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