| From: sense | 10/14/2023 4:13:25 PM | | | | | | Change noted. Gold miners now "in". Yahoo Finance news includes this:
When you click on the link all it gives you is a recommendation to shareholders to vote FOR Newmont's takeover of Newcrest... suggesting gold is "in" again... but, probably, that was the only thing they had ready to go to put up as a recommendation ?
It remains to be seen, of course, how the proliferation of active fronts in the acceleration into global war will proceed... and thus, how the fear trade will play out and over what time it will be relevant...
But, the potential for the "fear trade" to persist isn't the key issue... rather than it serving as a pivot point around which there is a shift in aggregate focus that occurs, which comes to incorporate shifting awareness in relation to correlating factors in the state of the economy, the insolvency of the banks, and global financial risks... which, since Evergreen, and again since Silicon Valley Bank... have been "controlled" but have not been contained... but have, thus far, been judged as an isolated set of concerns separate from geopolitics.
Convergence... is the word... and in the degree people "get it"... that the expanding wars, the unaltered trends in the financial realities, and the pairing of inflation continuing, with higher rates that don't offer a solution without "taking out the global economy" ?
For now, I think you judge the "fear trade"... as a trade...
But, watch for "convergence" driving shifting awareness... that works to form a base under gold... a part of which, unfortunately, is likely to be a proof that "higher rates don't offer a solution" to inflation... but will handily succeed in "taking out the global economy" without solving the problem... which outcome is likely already "baked in" with an "interest rate lag" of 6 months... amplified impacts from oil soaring in spite of the "takedown" that occurred right before the war started ? Oil, also, defining a convergence between geopolitical events and the recognition of the "bigger" problem... which still leaves a parallel "capitulation event" likely to occur when the perma-bulls believing the Fed "got this" are forced to figure it out... the siren's whisperings re "soft landings"... is not going to happen... and, in fact, its not a part of the plan... beyond the effort made in getting you to expect it.
I'm still thinking March... as a likely bottom... but, don't discount either the banks key skill set in "kicking the can" by various ploys in banks behavior... or the MOPE element in deflection delaying market perception. |
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| From: sense | 10/15/2023 12:16:22 AM | | | | | | Credit Analyst Rick Rule describes "what keeps him awake at night"...
Very little discussion of gold/silver, and no stock picks...
As has proven true in prior recessions, "dark days" are enabled following an initiating function of failures in liquidity in high yield markets, and today, Rule notes, there are trillions in high yield ETFs that will essentially evaporate when credit markets roll over.
I think "it will not be different this time"... "It" will probably begin with accelerating delinquency in credit cards... a parallel in mortgages following an accelerating collapse in employment, which will provide a feedback loop that can't be quickly or easily turned off... Rates at a threshold imposing a sharp contraction... cannot be countered by lowering rates...
Soft landings aren't possible... because behavior is what it is... and when decisions get made, they're not easily unmade. So you see excess required and applied to drive any change, up front... because people are resistant to change... and overcoming that resistance requires "going beyond what it should take" to enable change... and that imposes "too much" is required just to reach "enough". And, then, when you've reached "enough"... it means you're already well beyond "what it should take" at the point where "enough" alters behavior... so that "enough" immediately becomes "too much" once the resistance to change is overcome... and not only has a change in expectations occurred, but, in overcoming resistance and becoming actionable, it becomes irreversible in each of the instances that compose the aggregate.
I talk about that here as "tipping point behavior"... but, the logic of it is also popularly known as "the straw that broke the camels back"... where that last increment that was required did initiate a resulting change... but, once change is initiated... it isn't going to proceed linearly in reversible increments ?
No "soft landing" has ever happened... because... it can't. "Change" in the economy comes with a series of ratchets that prevent it being reversible...
Stop paying your mortgage... and they'll give you some grace period... and then, some "make it up" potentials beyond that... maybe a negotiation. But, once foreclosure has begun... once a bankruptcy is determined as "the solution"... once your house is sold at auction... that's not "undoable"...
But, "not undoable" isn't the limit of the issue... There's also a "time ratchet"... as all those elements of process are time consuming... and as they occur outside "the normal process" they also can't revert to "normal process" in the future, just because it would be convenient for the Fed if they could ?
Ray Dalio's " How the Economic Machine Works" has it right. "Inevitability" isn't a specific prediction of timing or a tipping point... but, it is what it is... including that it defines the nature of the ratchets that do exist... and what change requires in result when ratchets turn.
Lots of vids out there now noting "something is going to break"... based on rates having already gone too far too fast... after waiting too long to do anything... all on top of still unresolved issues from 2008, and ticking noises coming from "off books derivatives" and "off books liabilities" meaning "the debt" is vastly larger than we're told... and the derivatives impose undefined and unknowable risks... in which the scale of the issue in uncertainty makes global GDP into a rounding error. The market is in denial about the existence and meaning of ongoing "QE"... under whatever new name they have devised for it now... but also are choosing to be deliberately ignorant of "long term implications" of the various "money substitutes" or "money like pseudo currency markers" being employed in masking "accounting reality"... while choosing to pretend that it can't possibly matter.
All the "Great Reset" talk presumes they know its going to break... (or, know it is broken and intend to break it more, or reveal how broken it is) hoping, at the right time, to use that manufactured "emergency" precipitated by it being (exposed as) broken as the excuse, to empower themselves in doing more of the same in what they did last time, that broke it more, faster...
I see little evidence that there is going to be willing acquiescence to any part of that they're proposing as what "works for them"...
And, if we don't see Republicans able to agree on a direction... and elect a speaker... we're also not going to see Congress empowering anyone in making any changes... ? Or... ??? |
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| From: sense | 10/15/2023 5:56:49 AM | | | | | | Africa Oil, Eco Atlantic Oil and Tullow Oil
AOIFF (S. Africa / Namibia), ECAOF (Namibia and Guyana), TUWLF, etc.
I looked at this before, when ECAOF acquired an additional 6.25% interest in an offshore block in Namibia, but couldn't make much sense of it, then. I was following them mostly as interested in their Guyana exposure... and didn't know much about the Namibia/South Africa offshore potentials, then.
Anyway... It's a bit clearer, now... The two "most interesting" new areas for offshore exploration are 1. Guyana, and 2. Namibia. They've both made major finds offshore recently, of roughly the same size, it seems, with the difference that Guyana is better defined, and appears to be around 4 years ahead of Namibia on the development time line... but, of course, "which blocks" matters more to the companies, as others finds contribute geological information more than value to others.
Africa Oil owns 15.02% of Eco Atlantic... and, through Eco Atlantic's subsidiary Azinam, they are partners in offshore exploration in South Africa, "in Block 3B/4B, located in the Orange Basin offshore South Africa and on trend with the Venus, Graff, La Rona and Jonker oil discoveries"... Eco Atlantic upped their interest by 6.25% in December 2022, paying $8 million as $500K in cash, and $7.5 million U.S. in shares (at $0.48 Canadian)... so around 20.8 million shares... a bit over 5% of the company.
Now, (August, 2023) they've sold that same interest to Africa Oil for $10.5 million, in tranches with conditions based on performance, as $2.5 million within 30 days, $2.5 million upon the government's approval for the transfer, $4.0 million upon the completion of a farm-out deal to a third party; and $1.5 million upon spudding of the first exploration well on the block.
Good news for Eco as it solve problems in the checkbook balance immediately... and it has them ahead on the cash value of the deal, after paying $500K in cash a year ago, and now bringing in $5 million in cash pretty quickly... while the total consideration bumps from $8 million to $10.5... if / when successful in farming it out and drilling an exploration well, still meaning Eco carries some risk in the deal.
Eco is also still a 20% owner in the same project... and the deal done values that 20% interest at $32 million. The value ascribed to that one project is a bit over half of Eco's market cap, today.
Meanwhile... Eco has also been partnered with Tullow in Guyana... but, recently, Tullow got cold feet on its Guyana participation, and de-risked perhaps by shifting its focus on Ivory Coast, where they know the geology better.
In August this year, Eco announced Acquisition of additional 60% Operated Interest in Orinduik Block Guyana from Tullow Oil... bumping its interest to 75% for US$700,000 cash, and contingent on (Aug 31) Guyana to approve Tullow’s sale of Orinduik Block stake to Eco Atlantic and on success: US$4 million with a commercial discovery; US$10 million with a production license; and a royalty of 1.75% on the 60% net of costs. The terms are far more based on success than based on performance milestones, so that's a win. No dissenting words heard from the other partners, France's Total and Qatar... so it appears they're still in.
It leaves investors, along with those Eco will be pitching to participate in the Guyana effort, needing to parse the nature of the risks and the potential value of the Orinduik Block. Tullow had already written off its costs... but the Orinduik Block wasn't a fail, but an exploration success, only with the find made being a heavy sour crude, which imposes particular requirements in operating and in handling the oil produced.
Still, the Jethro 1 was deemed to contain 100 million barrels of a heavy, lower value oil... and potentially 8 billion barrels equivalent in the block, still... but, clocks are ticking, and they'll need to find the right partner to work with in drilling another well... soon... and will have to surrender 20% of what they hold now under the terms of the exploration license. Eco Atlantic isn't resigned to Orinduik being only a heavy oil project, though, and is looking to drill two light oil cretaceous targets as soon as they can... and "In its latest results statement, the company also confirmed that the joint venture for Block 3B/4B in the Orange Basin offshore South Africa has filed an application to drill one well and one contingent well, with an area of interest in the northern part of the block"... so, they're working in south Africa this year too... and hold four licenses in Namibia...
If Orinduik ends up being a bet on the value of heavy crude, which depends on expectations for the future price of oil... and others willingness to place that bet along with Eco Atlantic... for now, that's not looking like the worst thing: OPEC+ production cuts drive up sour crude oil price around the world
But, Eco Atlantic is planning to explore for light sweet crude like that found next door at Stabroek.
Phone numbers, here... |
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| To: sense who wrote (4069) | 10/15/2023 2:17:19 PM | | From: sense | | | | FOXO ? Oct 17 Event... AI patents... or, will the lawyers and bureaucrats capture or kill AI before it gets born.
" how the EPO and German jurisprudence deals with core questions of AI patents, such as patentability and sufficiency of disclosure. We'll walk through some recent decisions"
AI Patent Case Law Update: Event by Bastian Best
Tue, Oct 17, 2023, 7:00 AM - 8:00 AM EST
Audio event: 2,531 attendees
If AI is a new "gold rush"... and the tech companies are 49ers... then the patent office is the land office...
Prospectors might get lucky... but, when a new find is made, those rushing to the scene are already in late, while those focused on exploring green fields backed by data, reason (or AI), $ and the best patent lawyers (or AI) are likely to "win" control ?
Can AI... predict the future best uses of AI... and patent itself ?
I'm curious about who is seeking to use it in "rules based" exploration.
Mining is intrinsically resistant to the application beyond "broad" views... because the lack of data at sufficient resolution imposes blindness every bit as much to an automated explorer as it does for a human explorer. But, AI still has a greater ability to collect and consider "all the data"... while perhaps ignoring boundaries that human explorers can't bring themselves to ignore. And field where there is an existing pool of data to exploit... whether "you" have access to the data or not... will be "low hanging fruit".
Probably... no larger pool of data exists... than that in the banking system...
Does that mean what we're going to be dealing with soon is: "The GrAIt Reset" ? |
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| From: sense | 10/16/2023 1:24:42 PM | | | | | | Basic DD on FOXO
I found it in the usual morning routine... cup of joe.. look at finviz for a screen of top gainers... look at them to see who is moving and quickly figure out why to see if there is a trade, and what/when that might be.
FOXO was rocketing higher... up to $0.29 from flat at a dime... And, for good reason... they were awarded - "a Patent Leveraging Machine Learning Approaches to Enable the Commercialization of Epigenetic Biomarkers".
Basically, they're like the DNA companies that look at your genetics and tell you what sort of mongrel you are... (I'm Dutch / German... and exactly the same amount of Native American as Elizabeth Warren) based on the origins of your ancestors as recorded in your DNA. But FOXO was using that bit of testing to look not so much at "origins" but at epigenetics... to see what your DNA says about your potential health risks...
They use AI to look at epigenetics... evaluate your risks... and then tell you what you should think about doing in diet, exercise, drugs, etc., in trying to live a bit longer. And, since that's the focus... trying to get you to be healthy and live longer... they pair that with selling you life insurance... which makes perfect sense as it aligns their interest with yours ?
It seems a brain dead obvious business... but, making it work well enough to make money at it... would probably require social skills a bit beyond those of your average insurance salesman ? But, that gave them TWO businesses... each of which should make money IF the opportunity / products were properly marketed.
Clearly they weren't. So, as I've noted recently in discussing what to look for in bottom fishing for potential survivors... the board began throttling them back recently... fired the CEO, fired the CFO... fired a bunch of people generating ongoing unemployment obligations... and as part of a strategic review process they say "they've only begun"... but expect to complete in October... they hired a new CEO / CFO team... who just happen to have a business of their own that they "might" want to have be acquired by their new employer. <rolls eyes>.
Then, trading along flat at a dime... they accidentally lucked into have the USPTO gift them with a patent on the use of AI in epigenetics... and the stock rocketed into a 3X. But, then, shortly after I posted on it... it crashed and burned just as quickly ?
"Suppression trade ?" That's what I noted in observing it... that it doesn't look like it got shorted in the usual way... by shorts expecting it to die and hoping to help kill it. Instead... it crashed right back down to a dime and stayed there, flat, in a trade conducted on elevated volume.
Poking at it today... The Latest 8K defines October "decision point" and likely future.
A few notes on which first... I still have to question why the prior business(es) didn't work... and why the board appears to have decided to throw the baby out with the bath water... only to have the baby suddenly step on stage to accept winning an award as the best baby in the business ? The patent award seems to have demonstrated that there is a problem on the board... as they failed to recognize the value... failed to ensure it was properly financed... and failed to ensure the value they had in hand was being properly curated... prior to achieving "financial failure." The decisions we see playing out now clearly weren't made by CEO/CFO rather than the board... but, the old CEO/CFO clearly weren't getting the job done, either, for some, now perhaps obvious, reason. So... who's fault is that... and it means what for the future prospects ?
As a non-participant in owning this stock, thus far... what to make of it ?
A short answer might be... they just got gifted this patent... so they have a new "value" in hand... and they're talking about shedding "non-core" assets to raise money for Plan B. Call that a win for team Plan B if they can succeed in marketing the patent and selling it for good value... but, not much reason apparent for confidence on that "marketing" score, just now . But, it might make more sense, for investors, to follow the events to see who buys the patent... ?
Interesting to note, though, that the Plan B on deck... is also an AI focused company... having tacked that "ai" tag on top of their already existing web focused business...
It looks like they're going to be... as KR8.ai... focused on AI applied in helping you (or your company) manage your social media messaging ? Apparently, there's an app for that... and they made it.
That makes sense, perhaps, if FOXO were shopping around for marketing solutions that would help them fill the too obvious holes in their interactions with the market... ? They found KR8 to help "fix" that problem... and then decided they'd rather be in that business than the one they were in ?
But, if KR8 can't fix the problem in the opportunity they own... why should you trust them to fix it for you ?
But, reality here... it's a trade, maybe... They're going to "shift gears" and become KR8... and apparently plan to and need to "get that done" in October... and while that's cooking, there's a suppression trade being used to cap the stock to prevent it running away from them... and, probably, disrupting their planning on the financial components of executing a deal... which becomes a problem if the stock suddenly "revalues" itself.
Assume they do some deal... and, then... ? It's still at a dime... with little reason in proofs that might generate confidence in Plan B. So, probably, a deal done will need to include a re-shuffling of the stock ownership... and, as long as doing that... might as well alter the share structure ? Reverse of 1 for 20 (or more) would get it up to $2 (or more) nominally... and give it a chance at retaining the listing.
So, for now... DD will mean... poke at the competition in the patented AI in epigenetics space... and poke at the available elements you can find re KR8...
Newsletters they publish on LinkedIn... and given this is who the U.S. team are... are they the same thing... or is there some branding issue creating a conflict there ? |
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