| To: sense who wrote (4022) | 10/3/2023 6:24:57 AM | | From: sense | | | | Almonty's August Construction Update (dated July 31)
Looks pretty significantly behind schedule, to me... they've drawn down only a bit over half the $... but were supposed to be "finishing up" about now... Mining was supposed to have started back on July 1st... and they say this, now: "The detailed engineering plans for the areas of crushing and stockpiling have been completed, with scheduled line drawings of the grinding and classification section to be finalized soon."
Yeah... pretty much what I've been expecting to see from these guys...
And, when the bank wants to start getting paid back... and the mine isn't built, yet ?
Popcorn will be required... but, no hurry to start popping it, yet...
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| From: sense | 10/3/2023 4:02:18 PM | | | | | | RMLFF / GDRZF
Case records for Judge Leonard Stark... includes elements related to the pending sales process.
Of particular interest are:
1. The clear awareness that the "best bid" might be conditioned on the sale of 100% of the CITGO shares.
2. The wide latitude the judge has given the Special Master... to arrange a deal that makes sense.
3. Crystallex is a participant in the bidding process as a "credit bidder"... (which may or may not include, either directly in participation under the suit, or by means of arrangement, others who are appended to the suit as additional creditors... and it is impossible to tell from this.)
Raises at least the possibility that the other creditors might also be participants along with them in agreeing to a forced settlement by sale to "the credit bidders" in which the amounts they are owed are converted directly into awards in ownership of CITGO shares rather than cash payments based on a completion of the sale of CITGO shares. Even if that is correct, and whether or not it includes others than the principle in the suit, that it is "possible" doesn't require that the Special Master will consider it a useful approach, or that in his judgement it will constitute a bid that is superior to other bids.
Why it might matter... is that the sale at auction is likely to undervalue the shares... And, if instead of a forced sale at reduced prices relative to market, there is a forced transfer... the value will be transferred intact at the "price" deemed correct... and any value above the auction value will remain attached to the shares rather than be lost to the creditors through the forced sales transactions enabled by the process.
Or, otherwise... the value to the owners of the creditors in becoming share owners... might be greater than in result of a cash sale... only as a function of the accounting in valuation... where not only the value of the position in holding shares... but a multiple of the value... might adhere to the shares under the new ownership.
The "value"... should include perhaps a 5X multiple... ? An open question exists about how any process in conducting a sale will account for differences between "fair market value" (as defined in the process itself as the auction result)... and a broader perspective on "value" external to the transaction. |
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| To: sense who wrote (4024) | 10/3/2023 4:52:59 PM | | From: sense | | | | FEMY
Off the recent highs... still a solid value, it seems... at least if the analysts predictions re future potential in revenue growth are in the least bit realistic... in relation to either the timing, or the numbers...
Some of the pattern apparent in the trading recently might well be explained by it having been very recently featured as a stock of interest on Reddit at r/SqueezePlays
Purely coincidence ?
Worth keeping an eye on the trading patterns for that reason, too, along with change tied to the usual in fundamental value issues that are made apparent to the market "in lumps"... as when winning a new product marketing approval from the Feds...
Oddly, I've seen very little effort made by anyone to try to quantify the value of that potential market for their newly approved product... nothing at all seen addressing the nature of the market it addresses, what the new product provides in terms of its relative position in and value proposition within that market, etc.
And, with that, nothing about how they intend to proceed to address those issues... or what it will cost ?
Perhaps they're intending to find marketing partners to carry that ball for them ?
The company itself not helping too much in that regard, either, which seems a bit tone deaf in the wake of the approval, not out there talking about "what it means to us", etc. They instead came out with news today that they are once again certified as fully compliant with harmonized regulatory rules... which means they can market their stuff in the U.S., Canada and Japan, with "an ability" to register in Brazil and Australia...
They "can"... not exactly answering questions of the sort any reasonable effort in DD would require asking.
The language in the release addressing what they do is... boilerplate... generic words you can tell they reuse often... and not saying that is clearly crafted to address the recent changes or put them in context. |
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| To: sense who wrote (4018) | 10/4/2023 12:17:13 PM | | From: Roads End | | | | Sense, Much appreciation for the updated NFGC analysis you have done. Thank You.
The agreement NFGC made with Maritime Resources looks interesting and a possible near term path forward. The Maritime Resources seems like it could play a role processing the Keats West ore initially since it is already in place and ready to roll. Would you mind commenting as to the strategy of this agreement?
Maritime Resources |
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| From: sense | 10/4/2023 12:46:02 PM | | | | | | PGEZF "Validation" in June
Stillwater Critical Minerals sold 10% of the company for $5 million... The deal got done at $0.25 a share (or, per unit with a big upside price move built in to the exercise of the warrants)... The $0.25 price was well above the market at the time: it was trading at $0.13 and spiked to all of $0.17 on the news.
Stillwater Critical Minerals Announces 9.99% Strategic Investment by Glencore
Still... the market is doing what it is doing just now... so, granted having that sort of validation occur is not bad news... reality requires that timing a buy is far more about "the market" than "the stock"...
That seems the news validates not only "the rocks"... but the state of the market in that "no one cares".
Today, PGEZF is "on sale" for less than half of that price Glencore paid.. and it just keeps on getting cheaper... so, I guess, if you think Glencore knows what they're doing... seems an obvious opportunity presenting itself, to do it as well as or even better then Gelncore ? But, $5 million for Glencore is chump change... maybe they're only spending it because its a cheaper way of answering a question about the rocks ... when it would cost them a whole lot more to answer that question by doing the work themselves ?
Same/similar thing happened at TLRS a while back... as Quinton Hennigh became CEO and changed the focus... drilled a few holes that answered a few obvious questions (exactly as I'd been advocating for over a decade)... the results of which enabled IAUX in buying up the two neighbors to the north... making a lot of money for someone, but not for TLRS.
But, at PGEZF... it appears they own all the rocks that the questions being asked might apply to...
Unless... Glencore is thinking about buying SBSW ?
Or, maybe... TROYF ? I added it to my list on the intro page about two weeks ago... as a totally dead stock as far as trading... my interest more about the rocks and big potential in them if their thesis holds...
I note today that on Sept 20 it spiked from $0.20 to $0.50 on a massive buy of... 1,000 shares. That seems like "market noise" in an issue that absolutely no one else is looking at... because its not really even an explorer yet... but more of a "start up" wanting to become an explorer... in this market... ? But, 35 million shares out... and a market cap of $18 million based on the repricing applied in a 1K trade... ?
Shallow end of the pool... perhaps... but, that's the point of looking for value in exploration... |
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