| To: sense who wrote (3817) | 3/1/2023 3:09:06 AM | | From: sense | | | | Chip Demand Will Surge From 2024, Tokyo Electron CEO Says
So, "wait for it" ?
Agrees with what TSMC is saying... “We forecast the semiconductor cycle to bottom sometime in first half 2023, and to see a healthy recovery in second half this year,” TSMC CEO C.C. Wei said.
Appears to be less about any effort in larger economic forecasting... and more about seeing the resolution of supply chain bottlenecks that will begin getting resolved... as new capacity comes on line... and future product availability become predictable enough to drive accelerations in new product planning... |
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| To: Logain Ablar who wrote (3808) | 3/1/2023 3:49:53 PM | | From: sense | | | | The underlying theme is you need good management. A good company / prospect but also good management. Hard to determine sometimes.
Yes. Even as, market reality requires that the market cycle controls a lot... the flow of capital required to succeed is "seasonal"... only not on an annual basis. So, it makes sense for junior explorers, being shut out of access to capital as "the tide goes out" and markets are "heading the wrong way" into "valley of death"... will have to do what they have to do to survive.
For some... that means ramping up the spending on PR... often 1/3 of what they spend... in order to try to sustain investor interest as the market quits paying attention. You see a transition in their "news"... from announcing results of the latest holes... to informing you about which conferences they're attending to present at... or, otherwise, their proudly announced successes in dramatically diluting your interest...
Those that successfully filled the coffer dams during the prior floods... in position to survive the next drought... behave differently than those who failed in that... and thus are forced to continue selling shares... or shedding assets... to sustain themselves. I might make more sense for them to just "stop"... and "wait for it"... but, not in the nature of the beast... And, that's an advantage for investors who continue paying attention... to those that continue to work... continue adding to deposits with drills, and continue adding new projects while they're available for sale... from others needing to sell them to survive... Not hard to find miners dramatically improving in value... even while share prices continue lower, following market trends, oblivious to what a particular issue is doing... that's not close to aligning with the share price trends ?
Management quality... in that context ?
Sustaining a burn rate... paying people... when there's nothing going on ? Even if not in cash... but in "incentives" as stock options... (are they insulated from future dilution ?) A big "sort" between those that are able to sustain progress... and those with no means to enable a project... or share price... momentum.
Sorting out the "lifestyle companies"... heavy on excitement in PR in rising markets, always light on actual accomplishment, with management having no other sources of support... feeding the kids by diluting your investment... from those that are likely to "succeed in the next up cycle" ? At least the cycle makes that a bit easier, too... as there's mostly no point in flogging investors with glowing PR... when they aren't really there to be flogged... So, even the nature of the variation in the newsflow is a "tell"...
Note how a management uses "projects" or "properties" in the portfolio like playing cards... adding or disposing of them... shifting them around... or, having them suddenly seem to disappear without concern about when or how that happened... it never even being mentioned ?
Doesn't mean you can't place bets on this or that... knowing what they're doing and how they're doing it... but, that solidly within the wheelhouse of "trading" skills based on understanding how the market works... and not about "investment"... based on picking winners worth holding ? Skill in both probably necessary to be able to do either well ?
It's useful to keep an eye on some of those that are clearly "the worst"... as the warning signs in patterns they apply are more recognizable... but still fully applicable to those that might do a better job of distracting you from what scammers they are... ?
Of course, there are a lot of serious enough people out there working hard at making it happen... that might not ever succeed in that... either because the rocks don't support it... or because... they never manage to sell the potential well enough to raise the money to find out if the rocks support it ?
Look at extremes in Newfound Gold... and at next door neighbor Sky Gold... both with "land positions" on Queens Way... and ask... what would Newfound Gold be worth... if they'd drilled what Sky Gold has... and not "hit the big one" in the first couple of holes ? Newfound has drilled quite a lot of holes with nothing... and plenty enough with gold in the range of 1 to 5 grams per ton... ? Sky Gold... appears they've mostly not been able to drill enough, and in what they have, have drilled holes in the wrong spots... which might apply in relative degree to Labrador, Golden Ridge, Exploits... ?
All which still mostly says... "wait for it"... is a thing best done from the sidelines... the most work you do in poking at them... sorting them... being done in interest... not in interest held... |
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| From: sense | 3/1/2023 9:58:32 PM | | | | | | Noted in passing...
The first thing I looked up in addressing this post is a list of the antonyms of "oracle"...
uninformed fool
whippersnapper
braindead
babe in the woods
amateur person
damn fool
easy victim
foolishness
gullible person
incompetent person
inept person
I have previously noted in other posts... that I had observed that Warren Buffett appeared to have changed over time, from "one of the good guys" in the market... to "one of the guys" in the market... perhaps not as intentionally evil as some, but, no longer as deliberately averse to it, either... Some of that, I'm sure, comes with the territory... as it is not just the market participants that have changed, but the nature of the markets themselves... particularly from the mid 1990's, and more particularly from 2008...
Anyway... Berkshire Hathaway's recent event was held... and, everyone seems to be satisfied... no comments in the media that I could see...
There's an article of Yahoo currently touting Munger and Buffetts concern re "the markets" with an explanation for why they currently have $88 billion in cash... and aren't doing much with it, as still not finding anything worth buying... I note... I did see Buffett follow me into oil shares last year... buying a fair bit of a few, it seems... which has to have worked out OK... and, noted recently he'd been buying more Chevron...
Anyway... what I "noted in passing" was that Berkshire reported losing $66 billion dollars... and, the explanation for that was... losses in derivatives trading.
I guess it's a useful enough thing to have $88 billion in cash.... but, having $154 billion in cash seems like it might be better thing, still ?
In any case... having massive losses in derivatives trading... seems it is decidedly at odds with what Buffett et al have been touting as their "investment style" for a long time... and I though that worth noting, and mentioning... all the more as it seems no one else has... |
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