| From: sense | 3/8/2020 7:14:07 PM | | | | | | Flying Pigs Updated .. . .
When Pigs Fly: Chinese Piglet Prices Hit Record High On Virus Disruptions
National Hog Farmer: Get acquainted with Global Mega Producers
The trade war is making U.S. pork producers squeal
The world's leading pig producers and processors
.pdf 2015 Pork Powerhouses
Of course, for any of this to matter... the trade war has to stay cooled off, rather than morph into something more virulent... and global transportation systems have to work... to enable shipping food to China...
Those following here will know that I think China has been lying, and continues lying, about the nature of the impact that the virus is having in China now. Wuhan will probably prove to be one of the more gruesome stories in the world history of contagion when the whole truth is known. But, for now, while China puts a brave face on it and claims a return to normalcy... none of the indicators that would show that happening appear to show that happening... and it is a known they''re working hard at artificially showing improvement that isn't occurring.
That effort can't be sustained for very long... within a month or two... just as the U.S. is entering the worst of the exponential expansion phase... as Seattle begins looking like Wuhan... China should start to level out a bit... As the dust finally begins to settle we'll begin to see what the nature of the future requirement to feed China will look like. We know the pig population in China was decimated. The numbers require the herd can't be reconstituted all that quickly. The chickens, too, last we heard, were being culled for an outbreak of H5N1... but we don't know how that's going now... the news not to be trusted anyway.
Timing questions dominate, first in the virus impact timing, but amplified along with uncertainty about what it will do HERE, which in the U.S. has not yet even been considered properly in real context... people still don't believe it could or would happen... but it can... and it will... with uncertain effect. Timing in China... mostly about the relative resiliency of systems, now... and the issues of the impacts, post virus, that it will have on both the politics and economics in the future... with a massive cloud of uncertainty hanging over them. Those issues won't even begin to emerge meaningfully... until spring... AFTER the all clear is sounded.
Triangulating the demand versus supply... against the possibility of sustaining transportation in commerce ?
That, and triangulating the physical trade in commodities versus market impacts that are only beginning ?
Charts say its WAY too early for TSN... for a few others... charts not looking quite so dire right now...
But, it is still early days in the ongoing stock market correction... far too soon to tell what will happen in the next few days, much less weeks, or months... but it will be a months long challenge that has to be met... and there's a lot more than can go wrong, from here, than is likely to occur as a pleasant surprise...
Wait for it...
JBS is a worldwide leader in animal protein production, with production facilities, sales offices, feedlots, distribution centers and transportation hubs at locations in local neighborhoods and around the world. JBS USA is a leading processor of beef, pork and lamb in the United States, a leading processor of beef in Canada and the largest cattle feeder in the world with operations in the United States and Canada. The company is also a majority shareholder of Pilgrim’s Pride Corp. JBS USA represents the North American arm of JBS S.A., the world’s leading animal protein processor. jbssa.com
The JBS subsidary that does chicken:JBS USA Holdings, Inc. holds a 78.5% controlling interest in Pilgrim’s Pride Corporation
Seaboard Foods is an integrated food company producing premium pork products for both domestic and international markets. A total of 2,164 employees raise more than 6.5 million market pigs a year. Seaboard Foods’ farm operations supply animals for the processing plant in Guymon, Okla., and producer-owners of the St. Joseph, Mo., plant supply the animals to the St. Joseph processing plant. The company has seven feed mills nationwide, producing 2.4 tons of feed a year for its hog farms. Seaboard also owns High Plains Bioenergy, which supports the use of sustainable energy from and for the Seaboard Foods’ system. |
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| From: sense | 3/8/2020 7:29:21 PM | | | | | | Oil Said To Open Down $10, Dow down 650
If you got in under the wire on a 3X Short Oil ETF on Friday... Congrats...
If you're not in already... probably not a market most should dabble in...
No way to tell, right now, how low oil will go tomorrow, or how fast it will get there... or what it might bounce to in a reaction after the opening bloodbath... This is a day traders market... evolving minute by minute.
DOW set to open down 650 points... but, what happens when the total carnage in other market starts to get crossfed into the public perceptions ? |
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| To: sense who wrote (1984) | 3/8/2020 10:05:26 PM | | From: sense | | | | Gold to open up 8% - But Then What ?
This post replies to my prior post: Clocks Ticking on Gold Backed Currency "Reset" ?
Before gold rockets to 28,000 an ounce... if it ever does... it would be a great idea to be locked into it with ownership in a gold royalty fund. A caveat... I don't know ELYGF at all, just found it... otherwise I've arranged them here based on my estimate of "the best value" first, then sorted them by looking at chart potentials:
Sand's MACD turning up, below the 50MA in a "hammer" with the upper bollie 24% above price of $6.32
Osisko Royalty MACD bottoming, below 50MA, a "hammer" with upper bollie 28% above price of $8.65
Ely gold Royalties a bit uncertain, the MACD weak, above 50MA at the lower bollie, the upper bollie flat at 27% above the $0.58 price which is center band.
Metalla Royalty MACD bottoming, below 50MA, bollies point down, in a "hammer" with the upper bollie 26% above the $5.28 price.
Wheaton Precious Metals MACD down, near 50MA mid bollie, a pincher, at $30.52 is 10% to bollie
Royal Gold solidly in a downtrend, below 50 and 200MA cross, pinching, 9% below the 200MA
Franco-Nevada MACD crossing up, above 50/200MA, at the upper bollie in uptrend, 2.5% below the high.
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| From: sense | 3/9/2020 1:15:22 AM | | | | | | Other Ways to Play the Downturn: Shipping Stocks, Again
Shipping stocks are soaring again... ahem... TANKER shipping stocks are soaring again.
I've posted about that trade here, and used to keep up with a list having that focus here but there's a more active group chatting about it here.
DHT up 5% on Friday... still near the lows... Chart following the text
Why now ? With a market implosion that is paired with cratering oil prices, there are three consequences:
1. Bonds crashing means... interest rates are falling... so the carrying costs of ownership should be falling for those solvent companies who are able to refinance in this environment. Tankers got a nice bump just a few months ago, so should be doing OK... and the tankers should be able to lower costs by refinancing at historically low rates.
2. Oil prices cratering... is being done on purpose... Russia and Saudi Arabia operating a price war against the United States... is intended to put higher cost producers out of business. A part of that is likely to include making efforts in cutting off access to hulls needed to move product. But, with economies imploding, too, RIGHT NOW, it isn't at all clear that the lowering of prices will increase demand very much. If demand craters and the producers keep producing... you still need somewhere to put all that oil. The number of tankers is large enough and they hold enough that they will easily find utility as oil storage... which won't bring peak rates... but will make money... and drive rates higher. In recent past downturns we have seen hedge funds buy boats and fill them with oil... float them around... just to be in position to sell the oil again at higher prices when prices rise again.
3. The U.S. shale oil boom is among the high cost operations, their sustained operation fueled by lower quality high yield debt issues. That market for debt is going to be exploding soon... possibly making it challenging to sustain their operations. When they don't make money from pumping oil at prices that ARE less than their costs of production... it will become cheaper again to ship oil from the middle east than to pump it out of U.S. domestic wells. So, suddenly, you'd need a WHOLE lot more tankers... since that trade died with the U.S. oil boom.
Not a trade without HUGE risks. The Saudi's and Russians pairing up to declare war on American oil independence... might not go over that well. Trump has proven more than willing to disrupt others plans for manipulating prices and free trade... by manipulating them right back. Probably won't happen quickly, but, if the effort persists longer term... in the time the debt issues will take to manifest as impediments to production... you might see tariffs imposed on foreign oil... which would kill the shippers right along with the Saudi/Russian plans to put America out of the oil business.
DHT up 5% on Friday
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