| From: John Vosilla | 2/9/2022 6:41:22 PM | | | | | | U.S. Housing Costs Surge, With No End In Sight
Locked out of the supply-constrained home-buying market, more households are crowding the rental market, driving up rents and stressing housing support programs.
The U.S. housing market shifted into overdrive during the pandemic, with more than 6 million homes selling in 2021 despite skyrocketing prices in many cities. From Miami (18.8% year-over-year increase) and Denver (18.6%) to San Diego (22.4%) and Phoenix (30.2%), it’s a national phenomenon. The median selling price for a home in November, $416,900, was nearly 25% more than it was in February 2020.
In the early weeks of 2022, there’s no sign that cutthroat biddingand rising prices won’t continue. The total inventory of homes on the market dipped below 300,000 nationwide in early January — less than half of the inventory available before the pandemic.
bloomberg.com |
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| From: John Vosilla | 2/9/2022 7:00:36 PM | | | | | | When will this end what are the signs we are close?
Looking for a flat to inverted yield curve probably higher than 2% and under 4% if look at long term trends since early 1980's peak.
12+ month bear market from the top in the large homebuilders. Looking at Lennar and DR Horton first.
at least six months inventory of existing home supply on the market.
PITI fixed rate homes priced below the local market median price versus equivalent rent no longer favorable in most housing markets.
Total mortgage debt to GDP approaches 2007 highs. Growing rapidly of late $200B a quarter new construction, cash out refi's and need to take on more and more debt with rising prices. This after being flat for a decade post financial crisis.
My Opinion we are getting closer but still at least 12-18 months away.. Oil up 28 days in the row big problem as was the huge spike prices and rents first half of 2021. Too much stress in part alleviate by more and more debt cars, houses eat + mortgage forbearance since COVID and 23% of income people get comes directly from the government more than double what it was 20 years ago. Is a mess no way out longer term. The more the government meddles everywhere the worst the backside of all this somehow, someday. |
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| From: alysteed | 7/12/2022 7:36:55 AM | | | | | | | Hi! My wife and I have been looking to buy a house for a few years (we lived in a rented and small). I have a well-running business, so I thought of the possibility of buying the house at once, not through the mortgage. And, finally, this year, we’ve managed to gather a huge sum (my wife also works and has no kids yet). Thanks to swpdxlaw.com, we have done all legitimate documents right and had no problems with that aspect. No problems with vacancy too. The only problem was refurbishing a house, because we found some things damaged, and some designs were just not so pretty. Now everything’s fine, and we are waiting for our first baby. What’s your experience, guys? |
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| From: John Vosilla | 7/29/2022 6:35:46 PM | | | | | | RE cycles last 17-18 years need patience.... Not the time to make a killing protect what you already have. Dead board ahead of the next housing crash nationwide probably 2024 nationally.
Mortgage forbearance via Cares Act rolling over many years non payment keeping at least 2.5M homes off the market. Was easy in the rising pandemic market tap the equity. Perhaps this is our subprime crisis this cycle?
Biden 2021-24 mirrors GWB 2005-08 just look at the flat yield curve, late cycle spike in home prices, rise in commodity prices, charts of homebuilders..
Seeing some isolated exhurban markets with tons of new construction outside San Antonio and Boise well above six months inventory already also boom fast growing areas like St George, UT.
In the southeast could only find the southern burbs of Raleigh over 6 months. In Florida hard to find any over 4 months YET..
Mostly buying, remodeling and selling these days. Cashed out all the rentals. Still limited supply where I work move in nice remodeled homes priced right sell quickly even now.
Drop in ten year under 2.7% bodes well for decline under 5% 30 year rates soon. What happens when fed starts selling MBS's on it's balance sheet later this year quantitative tightening? I hear $2.7T much of it purchased last year to help inflate the housing market even more. |
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| To: aloha020202 who wrote (2721) | 8/2/2022 4:40:14 AM | | From: RichardBens14 | | | | | Tbh, I’m an experienced RE investor. I love real estate so much. Actually, my friend first showed me the perspective that RE really has. Btw, she’s an attorney. Here’s the page ucmjdefense.com. And she still helps with ruling my assets. Tbh, I guess that the best piece of advice she’s ever given to me was that you should never hurry. And I think it’s really reasonable. Take your time to think over everything. Anyway, let’s keep the topic updated. |
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