| To: renovator who wrote (2702) | 3/16/2021 12:33:18 PM | | From: John Vosilla | | | | Yes prices have reset higher in much of the country due to ZIRP the past year seeing upwards of 15-25% appreciation which creates even more problems when rates normalize.
I am thinking extend and pretend especially with mortgages on residential so sideways to down for years to come..NYC so much inventory plus drop in population and revenues a wild card. Looking at quick numbers say 15M not paying rent or mortgage times $1500 month is peanuts to avoid another 2008 crisis for now. Whoever is in power won't let that happen again I imagine. Also most every smart person I know who has been around the block thinks a big downturn is inevitable next year.. You know what happens when everybody is thinking the same think..
Looking at months of inventory, fixed mortgage rates, yield curve, homebuilder charts and regional banking ETF's charts for clues looking out 12 months. Nothing signals a downturn YET.
Commercial RE another story. Can't see how we avoid another 1989-93 severe cramdown in asset prices and debt repositioning certain assets to highest and best current use IMHO
Thanks for all your input. Strange times |
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| To: The Barracuda™ who wrote (2703) | 3/16/2021 12:44:37 PM | | From: John Vosilla | | | | Nice move since September... I don't watch the stock much anymore but the shift of population, wealth and capital to Florida due to COVID and related fallout the blue states seems to be real.. The traffic all over unbearable and imagine will get even worse when things really open up.
WSJ just had an article stating a slightly different view that just as many people are leaving as are coming here.. Media can spin anything...lol
wsj.com |
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| To: Madharry who wrote (2704) | 3/16/2021 12:50:55 PM | | From: John Vosilla | | | | I suspect that many renters who are not doing that well financially will simply leave and find another rental sticking the landlord with the back rent owed. Sad to say I dont think people are particularly honest or moral.
I agree with this. From my experience is like a different world from the tenant pool of 20 years ago when most had high morals, honesty and integrity... That most can somehow play the victim or oppressed when anything goes wrong these days doesn't help. Today really have to screen, screen and do more screening before giving anyone the keys.. |
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| To: John Vosilla who wrote (2707) | 3/16/2021 6:05:49 PM | | From: Madharry | | | | | Do you use a particular service. I read about what company that recently signed a contract with a large realtor group in colorado but cant remember its name .I also remember I think some litigation because renters who were denied a lease found out it was because the credit check confused them with someone else. |
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| To: Madharry who wrote (2708) | 3/21/2021 11:24:14 AM | | From: John Vosilla | | | | | Sorry, I haven't done new rentals for five years. Prices went way up been selling them all as tenants leave. Now buying foreclosures doing extensive rehabs and selling in strong market. Get a lot of satisfaction buying the neglected eyesore on the block and turning it into the best looking redone home. Win, win as payments lower than rent and the buyers get a great redone almost like a new home.. |
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| To: E_K_S who wrote (2680) | 3/21/2021 11:32:00 AM | | From: John Vosilla | | | | Repricing of our large city center residential towers hints at a massive shakeout ahead?
Value of Beekman Tower cut by 45% in new appraisal178-unit luxury residential complex mainly leased to corporate tenants
By Kevin Sun
 The luxury Beekman Tower in Midtown East is now worth nearly half its $146 million valuation from 2018. (Beekman Tower)
Eight months since its owner sought pandemic-related loan relief, the landmark Beekman Tower has exited special servicing after securing a payment deferral. But the value of the corporate housing-centric property has taken a big hit.
The 178-unit complex in Midtown East is now appraised at $79.9 million. That’s down 45 percent from the $146 million it was valued at in 2018. The new appraisal is from Collier’s.
therealdeal.com |
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| To: Madharry who wrote (2704) | 5/11/2021 2:56:03 AM | | From: elmatador | | | | The Amazon Paradox
"The more business move to online the more the value of brick and mortar"
Which Brick and mortar becomes more valuable?
The datacenter.
The IT, cloud infrastructure that supports everything that carried out online, is housed inside a datacenter.
If you were an Asset Management Company -that used to manage shopping malls- you would be thinking harder on leveraging what you know to move into managing these brick and mortar assets that support on line business.
Not only that, you could propose build to suit.
Note that now big datacenters users' large enterprises and hyperscale businesses have "outgrown their existing colocation portfolio and are seeking economies of scale by simply building their own facility."
One of the most important but less-discussed aspects of a built-to-suit data center is the flexibility tenants have with how to run it. Assuming they’re working with a full-service data center developer and operator with the staff and expertise to handle any or every aspect of managing daily operations, tenants can choose to operate the facility themselves or hand it off to the operator so they can focus on their core competencies and other aspects of their business.
ELMAT: The Asset Management Company become a business like today's tower companies that owns and/or manage the infrastructure of mobile operators. Ex: Castle Crown, America Towers Corp. or SBA Communications Corp.
For tenants that opt to hand off operations of their data center, it’s important that they work with a developer/operator that will function as a true extension of their team.
That means working with a partner that will use the tenant’s internal processes and tools, communicates and collaborates using the same systems, and will follow their capital approval and legal processes as though they were part of the tenant’s business.
eweek.com
You see the investors would be chasing tenants to their datacenters, training people and concentrating on their business while assured that the nitty gritty is being taken care off. |
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| To: elmatador who wrote (2711) | 8/9/2021 4:43:47 PM | | From: John Vosilla | | | | THE POST-COVID URBAN REVIVAL: WHAT’S NEXT FOR BIG CITIES?
Today, more than four out of five people in the United States live in cities and urban areas. Over the country’s long history of urbanization, cities like New York, San Francisco and Chicago swelled not only in population, but also in their prominence as American cultural icons. That cachet helped these metropolises thrive even when economic conditions were challenging elsewhere, providing landlords and other commercial real estate stakeholders with a level of stability and security smaller cities couldn’t match.
In recent years, though, these storied cities started falling victim to their own success. Unebbing demand for limited residential and commercial space led to skyrocketing costs, and near-constant expansions and enhancements to government services necessitated new fees and higher taxes. At the same time, the emergence of remote working meant that people didn’t have to move to these uber-expensive cities to work for the companies that called them home. New technology, combined with cost of living and quality of life concerns, chipped away at that old preeminence, and businesses and individuals started choosing Atlanta over New York, Denver over Chicago and Austin over San Francisco. A Brookings Institution study found that population growth in the country’s largest urban areas dropped by almost half through the 2010s.
The COVID-19 pandemic amplified some of the disadvantages of living and working in densely populated cities and accelerated that migration. An October 2020 survey by freelancing platform Upwork found that as many as 23 million U.S. workers planned to move due to work from home flexibility, a near-term migration rate four times the usual level. Twenty percent of those planning to move were based in major U.S. cities. In San Francisco alone, 89,000 households have left the city, according to Public Comment in an analysis for USPS, and new office lease activity fell 71% in 2020 compared to the prior year, from 7.7 million to 2.2 million sq ft, according to Cushman & Wakefield. In New York City, January 2021 leasing volume was down 47% year-on-year, according to Colliers. The pandemic also boosted adoption of e-commerce, putting additional pressure on bricks-and-mortar retailers. Recent surveys have found that several years of e-commerce adoption has been compressed into a matter of months as a result of the pandemic.
The impact of this exodus goes beyond just quieter streets and emptier buses. The ensuing loss of tax revenue couldn’t come at a worse time for major cities already struggling with the enormous cost of combating COVID-19. A December 2020 survey of 901 city governments by the National League of Cities found that almost 70% had seen a negative financial impact from the pandemic, with respondents reporting a 21% drop in revenue and a 17% increase in expenditures, on average. And while many individuals and businesses can relocate, landlords and other commercial real estate organizations don’t have that option—their fortunes are inextricably linked to the recovery wherever their properties are located. These commercial real estate stakeholders are facing unprecedented vacancy rates and an uncertain path to recovery as the pandemic retreats.
ConclusionThe actions of tech-industry behemoths reflect a fundamental truth: New York City and the Bay Area will recover as the effects of the pandemic wane and will continue to be dynamic engines of American culture, innovation and finance. Case in point: While New York City experienced a year-on-year decrease in overall real estate market activity over the course of 2020, it was also home to 20 of the biggest lease deals of 2020, totaling 6 million square feet.
“Neither devastating fires when cities were made of wood, nor the cholera of Dickens’s London, nor the urban bombardments of World War II, nor the postwar fears of nuclear holocaust, nor even the shock of 9/11 fundamentally altered the pull to urbanize,” said Alex Krieger, architect and urban designer. “Neither will COVID-19 over the long term.”
In the meantime, landlords are in dire straits and need to shore up their finances to ensure survival. Beyond that, landlords will need to have a fundamental understanding of how their property sector changed due to COVID-19 and offer more flexibility in space usage, lease agreement terms and other areas to attract and retain tenants. Technology can help facilitate the process and drive efficiency.
While there are some steps commercial real estate stakeholders can and should take to make it through the current crisis and be better prepared for the next one, the fortunes of landlords and big cities are inextricably linked. COVID-19 accelerated migratory trends and showed without a doubt that big cities can’t rest on their laurels. Not only are they in competition with other big cities like Dallas and Miami, but with secondary cities like Austin and Charlotte that are getting another look due to the pitfalls of living in a big urban city during a pandemic. All parties can
benefit from getting involved in activities that benefit their shared interests, such as lobbying state and federal governments for aid and collaborating on improvements that will make their city more desirable.
Big cities are in the midst of a prolonged lull in demand from new residents and businesses, which will continue to have a deep and broad impact on everything from rents to government services. How long that downturn lasts will depend on the actions government entities, economic development agencies and even business owners themselves take—or don’t take—in the coming months and years
read more
bdo.com |
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| From: WoodEric0 | 12/17/2021 12:17:09 PM | | | | | | $MSPC - MetroSpaces - It might be surprising to discover that the price of MetroSpaces, A Cutting-Edge Real Estate Tech Company, isn’t as high as you’d expect it to be right now – which means now is a great time to get in on the ground up and hold stocks while this promising company grows.
ritzherald.com |
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