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   Non-TechInvesting in Real Estate - Creative Opportunities


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To: renovator who wrote (2695)1/21/2020 8:38:32 PM
From: John Vosilla
   of 2714
 
Tightening market that neighborhood. I calculated about 5 months inventory. Pending's about 1/3 of all listings..

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From: John Vosilla1/21/2020 8:39:38 PM
   of 2714
 
The Washington Post. “Millennials’ share of the U.S. housing market: small and shrinking. Because homeownership is the chief builder of wealth, the trend is ‘bad news for the economy overall.’ In 1990, baby boomers, whose median age was 35, owned nearly one-third of American real estate by value. In 2019, the millennial generation, with a median age of 31, owned just 4 percent. They’re not likely to reach 30 percent of the housing market — or even the 20 percent attained by the smaller Generation X at the same point in their lives.”

“Because homeownership is the chief builder of wealth for middle class families, if this trend continues ‘we’re looking at a generation that will have lower lifetime wealth,’ said Jenny Schuetz, a housing policy expert at the Brookings Institution. In many of America’s most desirable cities, the median price of a home is well beyond the reach of a typical salary. For the past several decades, developers in major metro areas like New York City have built a glut of luxury condos while ignoring the needs of the middle class.”

housingbubble.blog

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From: renovator5/11/2020 12:29:19 PM
   of 2714
 
Here is some insight from the clouds above nyc:
theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com

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To: renovator who wrote (2698)2/7/2021 4:55:29 PM
From: John Vosilla
   of 2714
 
Are we trapped in another housing bubble? A rapid rise in home prices has some experts worried

Home prices are rising coast to coast and are outstripping wages and rents. Some say it's another housing bubble. But it's nothing like the mid 2000s.
In the midst of a raging COVID-19 pandemic, with millions of Americans still out of work and facing the possibility of eviction and foreclosure, the United States is experiencing a real estate boom the likes of which it hasn't seen in 15 years.

Home prices are rising practically everywhere. From Augusta, Maine, to Phoenix and from Sarasota, Florida, to Aberdeen, Washington, prices are up by double digits.

Driven by historically low interest rates that make borrowing cheap and waves of people fleeing densely populated cities because of COVID-19, home buying has become as competitive as it was during the boom years of the mid-2000s.

usatoday.com

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To: John Vosilla who wrote (2699)2/7/2021 5:30:31 PM
From: John Vosilla
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WA scrambles to avoid mass evictions as moratorium nears end

Tenants and landlords both favor more rent assistance, but some want lawmakers to go further.

For every month since evictions were banned in Washington last March, tenants in the state accrued somewhere around $100 million in owed rent. By that estimate — which comes from the state Department of Commerce — renters here could now be over $1 billion in debt, a sum that grows each week.

Even as that number swells, the end to the state’s eviction moratorium is coming into view. After Gov. Jay Inslee extended the moratorium multiple times, most lawmakers, lobbyists and advocates expect March 31 will mark its true end — at least at the state level. Then the question of what will happen to renters without the moratorium’s blunt relief will go from hypothetical to very much real.

Arianna Laureano knows the weight of that burden well. Had it not been for the protections from state and local governments, she’s sure that she and her roommate would have lost their apartment in Seattle’s University District. Laureano has been homeless before and the fear of losing her stable place to sleep was a “catastrophic feeling.”

“I see what’s coming because I’ve lived it,” Laureano said. “I’m terrified for every single Washington renter.”

crosscut.com

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To: John Vosilla who wrote (2700)2/7/2021 5:33:28 PM
From: John Vosilla
   of 2714
 
Pandemic Wipes Out Landlord’s Living
After taxes, utilities, repairs, and tens of thousands of dollars lost through unpaid rent amid the Covid-19 pandemic, landlord Galina Zalman said she made a total of $2,552 in 2020 — sending her to a food pantry as she struggles to keep three local rental properties afloat.

Zalman, who is 72 years old, and her husband Andrey live on the ground floor of a two-family house that they own at 33 Hazel St. in Newhallville.

In a housing market increasingly dominated by mega-landlords and their associated property management companies, the two Russian-born Brooklyn transplants are a rare breed: Owner-occupants and small-time landlords whose sole source of income is local real estate.

During an interview outside of her Newhallville home, Zalman told the Independent that 2020 made being a small-time rental property owner in New Haven nearly impossible.

Several of her tenants simply stopped paying rent as the Covid-19 pandemic took its economic toll, she said. One tenant who was behind on rent passed away. Another who was behind on rent is now in jail. A few of her remaining tenants have not paid in full or at all in months.

newhavenindependent.org

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To: John Vosilla who wrote (2701)2/7/2021 6:39:35 PM
From: renovator
   of 2714
 
By rights, I should change my SI moniker, as I am a former renovator, I switched careers 14 years ago, to property claims adjuster. The bulk of my claims are in the NYC tri-state area except whenever I go out for an extended storm event.

I can confirm that landlords, small and large, are getting killed in the area. I have had numerous claims in large full floor office spaces where I was the only one in 3200-4000 sq ft surveying damage. The building managers tell me they are technically at close to full occupancy but that very little use is being made of the spaces and even less rent is being paid. As commercial leases end they are not being renewed and there is now a vast overflow of available commercial sub-let space in NYC. However, that is not exactly the case in the suburbs. I just had a claim the other day in a close-in suburban city with a landlord who owns many small retail buildings, some on commercial avenues and others small strip mall locations. He said they have been very successful re-leasing quickly after business blow up since Covid. Restaurants being the exception, but his firm has been reworking those spaces for straight retail or light office professional space.

On the other hand, even in the suburbs, the small residential rental claims I have are a very different story. I have had lots of claims where there is significant deferred maintenance and extensive back rent. Nobody knows when these will be subject to evictions, but it appears absolute that there will be a brutal slash and burn event whenever the protections cease. If that gets pushed out too far there will be a ton of small landlord foreclosures.

An unfortunate part of my work lately is the number of folks who have cut way back on policies or have let them lapse.

To John's point about a bubble--I have been seriously looking to leave NYC anyway, and particularly lately. I have thoroughly researched several markets within 1-1 1/2 hours of NYC, as my work is much more profitable here, in spite of traffic, parking, and every other NYC annoyance--bike lanes! Residential property in North Jersey, Rockland and Orange counties in NY has been extremely active and up a solid 25% across the board in the past year. Very quick market. I have lots of family up around Rochester, NY, where I grew up, and occasionally look that market over and it is similar with lower price points, but extremely active. My niece, a very well paid RN, has been shut out of several properties the first day of the listing by over-ask offers there.

To make matters worse, my wife hails from Austin, TX, and we have considered making that move several times over the years, put off by the serious cut-back in income we foresaw. That city has been on a wild run and standard ranch homes I considered in South Austin 10 years ago went from $200's then to $300's couple of years back and are now pushing $400's. The crappy ones are now close to $300k. Sheesh!

I see smaller, but still significant, changes in markets like Wilmington NC, where I got to know it well after Hurricane Florence in 2018 and note a significant rise in prices since then.

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From: The Barracuda™2/25/2021 9:09:20 AM
1 Recommendation   of 2714
 
St Joe anyone? Florida land company

finance.yahoo.com

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To: renovator who wrote (2702)3/15/2021 11:15:00 AM
From: Madharry
   of 2714
 
thanks for the informative comments. I have purchased several mreits but decided to avoid those with nyc office exposure. I suspect that many renters who are not doing that well financially will simply leave and find another rental sticking the landlord with the back rent owed. Sad to say I dont think people are particularly honest or moral. I wonder what remedies landlord have to go after such tennants for back rent.

is there anything in the covid bill to compensate landlords for renters who dont pay their rent?
In my subdivision in Arizona there have been recent sales of similar houses to mine that went for at least 30% more than I paid 4 years ago. But I think its still cheap compared to other metropolitan areas.

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To: renovator who wrote (2702)3/16/2021 12:33:18 PM
From: John Vosilla
   of 2714
 
Yes prices have reset higher in much of the country due to ZIRP the past year seeing upwards of 15-25% appreciation which creates even more problems when rates normalize.

I am thinking extend and pretend especially with mortgages on residential so sideways to down for years to come..NYC so much inventory plus drop in population and revenues a wild card. Looking at quick numbers say 15M not paying rent or mortgage times $1500 month is peanuts to avoid another 2008 crisis for now. Whoever is in power won't let that happen again I imagine. Also most every smart person I know who has been around the block thinks a big downturn is inevitable next year.. You know what happens when everybody is thinking the same think..

Looking at months of inventory, fixed mortgage rates, yield curve, homebuilder charts and regional banking ETF's charts for clues looking out 12 months. Nothing signals a downturn YET.

Commercial RE another story. Can't see how we avoid another 1989-93 severe cramdown in asset prices and debt repositioning certain assets to highest and best current use IMHO

Thanks for all your input. Strange times

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