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   Non-TechInvesting in Real Estate - Creative Opportunities


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To: renovator who wrote (2690)12/23/2019 6:41:18 PM
From: John Vosilla
   of 2722
 
I thought was going to be way overbuilt three years ago all that new construction especially downtown Brooklyn and LI City?

Money from mainland China has dried up? Offset by money coming in from Hong Kong?

I'm looking realtor.com and seeing about 10 months of existing inventory in mid Manhattan right now with 11 months lower Manhattan. That is down substantially from 2018 when we had well over year of inventory..

Been following 432 Park Ave for a long time. The ultra high end crash didn't really materialize. See resales from 2015 somewhat lower but these billionaires can take the 10-20%% hit...LOL
realtor.com

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To: renovator who wrote (2690)1/3/2020 7:39:58 PM
From: John Vosilla
   of 2722
 
Came across 425 Park Avenue under construction the other day when I was in the city.. Large signs out front still say 'Anticipated Completion Fall 2018'. Looks more like late 2020 if lucky... Did they stop construction when things looked a bit more dicey there 12-18 months ago??

newyorkyimby.com

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To: John Vosilla who wrote (2692)1/4/2020 12:38:41 PM
From: renovator
   of 2722
 
No, I think they just ran into a lot more issues than initially expected. I handled a couple of claims earlier in the reconstruction process.

My wife worked in that building for several years as a legal secretary for Kaye Scholer LLP before a major downsizing purge when they reorganized a lot of low producing partners out and shipped a lot of back office work to Florida. That firm is now Arnold & Porter and has relocated to the West side.

Meanwhile at 425 Park the building rebuild was complicated by new/old height allowance rules--very arcane in NYC--which dictated that when they demo'ed the existing building the lower 18 floors had to stay in order to allow all the new floors above to be added. However, the existing superstructure would not accommodate the load from the new added floors so there was a 5 floor deep excavation and installation of new interior superstructure sistered to the existing and then all the way up for the new floors. In addition, I suspect they had some approval issues with the three fin arrangement on top, which I think was not part of the original approved design.

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To: renovator who wrote (2693)1/6/2020 11:27:20 AM
From: John Vosilla
   of 2722
 
Thanks for explaining. Imagine the cost overruns will be substantial. Perhaps also building department is so overwhelmed these days with all the new construction going on? I know I'm doing a simple garage conversion to living space taking way too long.. Always issues pop up..delay, delay, delay

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From: renovator1/18/2020 3:45:26 PM
   of 2722
 
Current example of the pressure for yield on the RE market.
This is a property I was just at for a claim--severe vandalism for pipe value--

zillow.com

The broker and I were talking about the market and he noted that this multifamily was about to close for a bit over $700,000 in cash and that he had received 63 offers upon listing it. Keep in mind that it will need no less than $150-200k in gut renovation before being rentable for an estimated $5,000-$5,500 monthly rent roll. All in all the buyer should yield around 6-7% on the investment without consideration for depreciation or appreciation.

This sort of property is very hot around the NYC metro region these days.

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To: renovator who wrote (2695)1/21/2020 8:38:32 PM
From: John Vosilla
   of 2722
 
Tightening market that neighborhood. I calculated about 5 months inventory. Pending's about 1/3 of all listings..

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From: John Vosilla1/21/2020 8:39:38 PM
   of 2722
 
The Washington Post. “Millennials’ share of the U.S. housing market: small and shrinking. Because homeownership is the chief builder of wealth, the trend is ‘bad news for the economy overall.’ In 1990, baby boomers, whose median age was 35, owned nearly one-third of American real estate by value. In 2019, the millennial generation, with a median age of 31, owned just 4 percent. They’re not likely to reach 30 percent of the housing market — or even the 20 percent attained by the smaller Generation X at the same point in their lives.”

“Because homeownership is the chief builder of wealth for middle class families, if this trend continues ‘we’re looking at a generation that will have lower lifetime wealth,’ said Jenny Schuetz, a housing policy expert at the Brookings Institution. In many of America’s most desirable cities, the median price of a home is well beyond the reach of a typical salary. For the past several decades, developers in major metro areas like New York City have built a glut of luxury condos while ignoring the needs of the middle class.”

housingbubble.blog

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From: renovator5/11/2020 12:29:19 PM
   of 2722
 
Here is some insight from the clouds above nyc:
theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com

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To: renovator who wrote (2698)2/7/2021 4:55:29 PM
From: John Vosilla
   of 2722
 
Are we trapped in another housing bubble? A rapid rise in home prices has some experts worried

Home prices are rising coast to coast and are outstripping wages and rents. Some say it's another housing bubble. But it's nothing like the mid 2000s.
In the midst of a raging COVID-19 pandemic, with millions of Americans still out of work and facing the possibility of eviction and foreclosure, the United States is experiencing a real estate boom the likes of which it hasn't seen in 15 years.

Home prices are rising practically everywhere. From Augusta, Maine, to Phoenix and from Sarasota, Florida, to Aberdeen, Washington, prices are up by double digits.

Driven by historically low interest rates that make borrowing cheap and waves of people fleeing densely populated cities because of COVID-19, home buying has become as competitive as it was during the boom years of the mid-2000s.

usatoday.com

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To: John Vosilla who wrote (2699)2/7/2021 5:30:31 PM
From: John Vosilla
   of 2722
 
WA scrambles to avoid mass evictions as moratorium nears end

Tenants and landlords both favor more rent assistance, but some want lawmakers to go further.

For every month since evictions were banned in Washington last March, tenants in the state accrued somewhere around $100 million in owed rent. By that estimate — which comes from the state Department of Commerce — renters here could now be over $1 billion in debt, a sum that grows each week.

Even as that number swells, the end to the state’s eviction moratorium is coming into view. After Gov. Jay Inslee extended the moratorium multiple times, most lawmakers, lobbyists and advocates expect March 31 will mark its true end — at least at the state level. Then the question of what will happen to renters without the moratorium’s blunt relief will go from hypothetical to very much real.

Arianna Laureano knows the weight of that burden well. Had it not been for the protections from state and local governments, she’s sure that she and her roommate would have lost their apartment in Seattle’s University District. Laureano has been homeless before and the fear of losing her stable place to sleep was a “catastrophic feeling.”

“I see what’s coming because I’ve lived it,” Laureano said. “I’m terrified for every single Washington renter.”

crosscut.com

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