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   Technology StocksPandora


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From: kaching!3/6/2012 6:26:25 PM
3 Recommendations   of 44
 
Today's results confirm what many have suspected:

This is a stock with growth in poor revenue generating areas, problematic expansion potential, combined with an inability to control costs.

With regard to mobility, Pandora touts lots of metrics about increasing mobile growth, but only earns one-third as much off mobile as it does off of desktop (although it likes to frame this as an "opportunity"). Meanwhile costs per song played are the same regardless of whether it is mobile or desktop. For those in the USA, you may not be aware that Pandora is not available everywhere else e.g. Canada due to an inability to come to licensing terms for songs. According to it's own documents, in the U.S. Pandora has projected increasing costs on a yearly basis as the amount it will have to pay for each song played will increase by a penny per year e.g. 11 cents to 12 cents, then 13 cents, 14 cents, and 15 cents. These would be substantial cost increases for any company with substantial revenue growth , but are basically unsustainable for this company.

Looking at insider activity, it not that hard to discern what insiders think of the company prospects (sell). One can argue that some are just taking advantage of awarded options, however, the anemic number of insider buys speaks volumes.

The 50% miss in earnings (-3 cents vs. -2 cents) is based on revised downward projections from last year. This does not bode well, and I think investors would be well advised to be wary of all the bullish analyst projections.




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From: kaching!3/19/2012 5:47:37 PM
   of 44
 
Royalties Cost Pandora Big Bucks


Thanks to Jack Messmer for this article.


http://rbr.com/royalties-cost-pandora-big-bucks/

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From: kaching!3/19/2012 6:03:54 PM
   of 44
 
Questionable Rumour on P may have bumped price

Hard to tell if this rumour (below) on MSFT taking a strategic stake in Pandora has any cred but I seriously doubt Ballmer would be dumb enough to pay anywhere near the current price let alone taking a stake valuing P at $20/share. Looks more likely daytrader wishful thinking...

Very few barriers to entry in this business.

stocktwits.com

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From: kaching!3/19/2012 6:03:54 PM
   of 44
 

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From: kaching!4/11/2012 4:57:42 PM
1 Recommendation   of 44
 
How Low Can Pandora Media Go? by Evan Niu

dailyfinance.com

Insightful article...

kaaching

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To: kaching! who wrote (23)4/18/2012 9:41:29 PM
From: FactsOnly
   of 44
 
I like Pandora because it plays songs that I might have never heard before but most likely to enjoy. Some of those songs become my favorites.

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To: FactsOnly who wrote (24)4/18/2012 9:57:18 PM
From: Lahcim Leinad
   of 44
 
So what do you think of the stock here? Personally, I have not changed my mind since I started this thread and posted this:

To: engineer who wrote (12)7/3/2011 1:35:08 AM
From: Lahcim Leinad1 Recommendation of 24
Are we really back to the stupid investor with the greater fool theory now to sell off after the IPO?

Yes.




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To: FactsOnly who wrote (24)4/20/2012 3:09:28 PM
From: Doren
1 Recommendation   of 44
 
I would never use Pandora and here's why: There is a vast universe of incredibly interesting music out there.

Pandora focuses your listening into a tiny niche. If you like a great band it will find the lesser bands that copy the first band's sound. That is anti-creative and stifles innovative music and probably the reason most people over 25 stop listening to music "Because they don't make good music like they did in my day."

I've been hearing that last one for 50 years. Sheech.

I want to expand my listening into areas I where would not necessarily be comfortable. I want to expand my mind and stretch my ears into new area. Most of the great music composers were misunderstood at first. Beethoven's students complained they couldn't understand his music. There were riots at the first Stravinsky ballets. Miles Davis was constantly criticized when he innovated. Bob Dylan was criticized when he went electric.

The way I find great new music is almost always through friends with big stretched out ears. My friends have recommended a lot of music that I initially did not like, but because I had respect for their intelligence I stuck with most of it until I understood what they loved about it.

The loser here in actuality is... Apple. The people who really know about what is new and great are... surprise... musicians! Musicians sell music on iTunes and Apple wants to expand its social values but they are overlooking this treasure, the musicians themselves and who they listen too.

------

On the other hand I think Pandora will survive because 90% of the listening population uses music for the "background" of their lives. Quality and innovation are not a big deal to them. Cheap is a big deal. You won't find many of these folks shelling out $100 for a Duke Ellington box set. They like 4/4 time and major/minor chords. A "good beat" and "a good melody" known as a hook in the trade. So its pretty easy for hollywood to pump out more of the same. A good beat and a good melody are not rare commodities, we are drowning in it. So as any commodity the law of supply and demand rules, extreme thin margin and huge cash flow.

Only 10% of the population takes time to actually sit down and do nothing while listening to a piece of music.

This would be akin to going to a gallery and glancing at Michal's photos while carrying a laptop working and checking stocks. You cannot empathize with the creator of the art form without some concentrated thought. You cannot guess the creators intentions if you don't at least try.

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To: Lahcim Leinad who wrote (25)5/3/2012 2:43:05 PM
From: FactsOnly
   of 44
 
I like the stock. I do not like the latest economic indicators in the US and the fact most of EU is falling into a second dip recession. I think there is a risk in the US as well unless we start some major infrastructure works to stimulate the economy. Other than that I like the stock.

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To: Doren who wrote (26)5/3/2012 2:49:41 PM
From: FactsOnly
   of 44
 
"Pandora focuses your listening into a tiny niche"

That might be the case if you create and listen to only one station. Even if you create one station, you could manually add more songs and artists to open up the possibilities, then Pandora will recommend others for you based on the DNA of what you said you like.

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