|From: louel||4/3/2020 12:58:29 PM|
|I picked up a bunch of Western today at 60 cents and will add if it drops further. Trading 30% below fair value target 1 year is between 1 to $1.40 by any analyst. Dividend yield If I remember right somewhere between 12 and 14.8% Horgan gave the Company the monopoly on as much of the highest priced fiber on the west coast of BC Western red Cedar and Cypress. The company has the only six only mills on the Island which can cut the logs into lumber. Both of those species cannot be exported other than in lumber or ready for market form. Raw log export is denied if they can be profitably manufactured in the province. |
The company price drop was largely due to the 8 month long strike now settled. Financials are i good shape and has among the highest rated management in the industry.
The CEO Don Demons was born into the sawmill industry into a family owned sawmill which was located under the Second Narrows bridge. CFO Stewart Williams formerly CFO of Interfor took the company from aan adams lake and another mill in the fraser valley to the Third largest Canadian forest company prior to being hired by Brookfield Asset management to come over to work with Western after they assumed it out of bankruptcy in 2008.
I have placed a subsequent order lower just in case it spikes down. WEF trades as you can see 1 to two million shares daily. It would not surprise now that WEF has ample timber going forward and not affected by the beetle epidemic, to see one of the majors or Jim Pattisson purchase WEF It has six fully modern mills an Canada and one in Washington plus a reman plant in Arlington Wa. both of which bypass US tariffs.
Secondly the New Union contract covers the next five years of operation. And the US department of Commerce says it intends to reduce the import duties on Canadian lumber from 20% to 4 % in mid August. Another Boon for WEF's profit line.
There has been a share buy back program in place which has reduced the outstanding float by near 20 million shares and is still ongoing. Former high was $3. Based on the float reduction alone without the added production facilities it would equate to a share price near $4.25 when the economy recovers.
That is also in line with normal forestry industry bull market trading values which has historically for over fifty years been 1.8 X BV per share Lumber unlike Oil and coal is one product which is not trying to be made obsolete People will always want homes. And in China or other Earthquake zones it is far superior to brick and mortar.
As s I'm in the dividend will help the wait. Always do your own research prior to making any investment decision.
That said I am not an investment adviser and never recommend any buy or sell It is your money and your decision If I have made errors in my assessment please feel free to point them out I'd appreciate it
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|To: explorationguy who wrote (10636)||4/4/2020 12:17:25 AM|
|Lots of time to enter between now and the previous high either above or below current price and still make money over the next 2 to three years. 5 Xthe investment to the former high with a dividend along the way All of which I will put in a DRIP I will however also trade the peaks and valleys. If you are using Ichimoko it is much complimented by another Japanese trend following indicator Heiken Ashi which fits well into it. simply a different approach to candle reading. it is an indicator so regular candle charts should also be viewed on other charts. Below is some information on it. Hienen Ashi works well with trending stocks but is not great when a security is trading sideways When reversals are indicated I also reffer to MACD for either over widening or narrowing convergence divergence Over widening of MACD will many times be a over bought or sold signal in steep ascent or declines near the end of a trend. Other normal indicators of personal choice also work well |
Basically changing one chart to Heiken ashi makes it far easier to see the trend Like normal candles when bulls and bears are getting ballanced candles will usually get smaller with both wicks and tails spinning tops with with or with out a body Indecision of where strength is. setting in Seek and there is much more info available. I don't use stockcharts H/A is available there I know as I have seen it mentioned in chart school I sponge on once in a while.
I only took Half the poition I wanted today and am reserving the other half just in case it declines a bit yet. lessens the loss till reversal. Plu If it rises from here the part I purchased will give room for fluctuation. bring the cost average down below the next buy making room for a stop at 0 loss.
I have H/K set up in one of my 12 separate chart windows with different time frames or indicators. I can then glance at any stock I'm viewing with it by clicking window number two. the platform when changing asecurity changes all ten windows at the same time. If I wish to compare charts I just switch to a 2nd layout with double screens which hold separate charts for comparison to see how it is preforming compared to the sector the industry or other stocks there in .
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|From: louel||4/11/2020 5:07:10 PM|
|any body who has not picked up at least a couple of thousand or so shares of at WEF or CMMC is missing an opportunity wef I see Vol@price resistance $1.14 or perhaps a hickup in the 80 to 90 cent gap. IStarted in five K increments at 60 Cents 2 days later my stop was at 61 when it breaks the 20 Ma I will double up with the stop at 65 By continuing to do this it this guarantees a no loss trade strategy. CMMC is another I am working the same form 30 cents hen I mentioned it only in 10k Acquisitions My stop on 20K in at 36 cents I see volatility of peaks and valleys beginning around 64 cents but continuing upwards as the copper and other mineral prices in the market continues to climb. Cmmc is Profitable enough operating under present pricing they switched to a closer pit with lower grade ore. Saving the Higher grade resource to capitalize on coming higher mineral prices. which should increase the bottom line exponentially and share price should respond accordingly. the time to begin a position is near the bottom ready for or at reversal when value alone has derisked it. Unlike some I do not average down but rather average up as it rises using my earlier acquisition to guaranteed position for a no loss stop and flexibility for fluctuations. If it does take it out there is still a profit and it only takes 695 to $9.95 getting back in when it reverse. with 10k that is only a one cent move and still have $80 left over. One of the best information I ever read was by Warren Buffet He said small profits add up and they far outnumber than large ones. What ever you take off the table no matter how small is better than a loss. Making money is easy in the market But over rulling greed and selling before you loose it again is a learned skill that is hard to master.|
I listened to Martha Stokes CMT. of Technitrader She said picking stocks or buying into a trend is simple. Knowing enough to exit just ahead of the heard while you still have profits then holding the door open while they all rush out chasing their losses down the slope is harder to learn. I use trend following and cycle indicators which can be adjusted to where they should be relative to their highs and lows along with some fundamentals for financial security purposes.
Like any one else I make some mistakes but having been trading the markets since 1972 and studying every thing I can for the last 10 years I am getting more accurate and profitable.
One thing I have discovered operating companies which are producing some thing with a Positive EPS are far easier to figure out, safer and more profitable to invest in than explorers punching holes in the ground hoping to find something using other peoples money.
I believe Teck resources is also a safe buy at this time according to the cycle indicator I use just that there are a dozen lower priced safe stocks offering much the same % return for less investment. And having three or four rather than just one offer diversification. Remember this is not a financial but rather a virus health correction. Companies who were doing well are still ok and will soon recover better than before. as they were forced dormant warehouse supplies were dwindling as things open up there is no warehouse cushion Demand is going to outstrip supply of these operating companies. Many takeovers are in the offing and I would not be suprised Copper mountain with a 31year LOM and another like it in the making is a target I believe he company may have a poison pill in place to guarantee a fair price if an offer or hostile attempt is made. Even with out a take out $5 long term in not out of the question
CMMC was previously $7.50 on less asset value or development The Third mill is ready to install to increase thruput for a cost of only $22 M . That is Peanuts for any major who would be interested. Copper mountain has slightly delayed doing it quickly. Cautiously protecting from debt overload. Very smart I would say. Starting in easy growing ones position safely then trading 30 % of it on the peaks and valleys based on historical technical chart reading. I can see money being made here CHeers
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|To: explorationguy who wrote (10640)||4/14/2020 3:55:50 PM|
|some; Tried it in the past. examined it's structure. Basically tweaked Macd different time make up.|
MACD calculates the difference between the exp 9 and 26 moving averages. Based on information extracted from the last 52 periods using daily closing prices as the constant.
Awsome; in normal setting employs the 5 Vs 34 period simple averages without weighting offered by expotential, front weighting or smoothing effects. the Tweaking away from MACD is a few things. Style of Ma averages , Length (time frame) the previous period from which information has been gleaned from and the constant has also been changed from closing prices to the average price for the current day By doing so creates stability it is less radical. Better for scalping mid day 5 to hourly price fluctuations rise and fall the indicator remains constant fixed on the average pricing from open to close. That is why it is not profitable trading the Histogram cross. By doing so you have alreasy lost the initial part of the move you end up buying after it has left oversold , crossed 50% of average range of the day rise and is ascending toward over bought. By reducing the range of the runs profits by 1/2 trading fees still have to be covered diminishing potential profit. Another thing top of the profit has been cliped prior to an exit signal It is like most others a lagging indicator. The only way I got some satisfactory results were by entering long on the second confirming green bar combined with viewing the candle formation and corresponding Volume as momentum.
Earlier entry produced better results in individual cases but risk was also higher .
Awsomw is a derrivetive of Heiken Ashi in histogram or line form rather than being displayed in Candle vision form. I believe the Japanese arrange ment is more dependable in exposing the trend stability. It calculate the averege day price however Heiken uses the hi minus low of the previous day then adds the open Minus close of the current day and divides it by 4 . If the average price is above the average calculated yesterday the candle in green if average price is is lower the candle turns red. I like it for swing trend trades.
My software probably as in most if I change the time frame from anywhere between minutes to monthly it automatically re-adjusts the indicators to correspond the time frame being viewed in that order one can many times view the approach to the run being instigated I also employ the use of Time segmented volume indicator. (TSV) this is a leading indicator for price to move there must be buying or selling and that shows up in volume. It may be o small to visualize in the volume bars when accumulation is slow at the beginning because the buyer wants to hide their entry and deter heard mentality entry driving up the asks prior to being filled. Tiume Ssegmented Volume Compares present volume buying and selling with past segments over given previous similar time periods so it reveals even tiny volume differences if they are at all consistent. the regular setting usually looks back 38 periods compared to the last 19 periods calculated daily using information from the previous 3 trading days for each of the two earlier mentioned periods. It is not infallible either many times it reads contrary to Macd which is based on price alone When a security rises or falls Volume high or low is part of the process behind the scenes. the indicator simply detects that. If it has dropped and volume keeps reducing there is a good chance for a long consolidation at least . One always must remember their name. Indicators' That is what they are indicators Not predictors they only indicate a change may be in process not guarantee or predict one They are a heads up to examine other aspects from fundamentals Current is the cycle in or out has there been political changes or product S vsDemand or price variations That is what indicators do they send alerts of possible changes on the horizon
Heiken Ashi Like Awsome is not for sideways consolidation trading it activates when trends begin on approx. the 2 or third day then follows through till it ends or weakens. Weakening trend signs are Dogi type candles where buying and selling pressures equalize leaving wicks and tails on the candle both above and below Uncertainty in where the power lies. Near the trend conclusion many times spikes will move to the opposite end of the Candle showing either bulls have moved in or bears are ready to put it to sleep.
Just edit a candle chart in your software from open Vs close or percent gain setting to Heiken ashi then skip through a number of charts you are familiar with and look how different the candle runs appear in comparison switch back and forth on the same stock amazing difference
Some thing else an advantage (Almost a must is stock cycles ) they all have time cycles in which they opertate from highs to lows and vice versa. You can buy a very fantastic stock which is out of its cycle and still loose money . people don't but sleighs, skiis and ice skates in summer or canoes and bathing suits in -40 degree weather. But they should just prior to the season when they are being offloaded when any moneyor profit is better than none Then sell to the demand when the crowd rushes in scooping up whats left on the shelves. GOld and exploration is beginning to move as some are picking up some prior to summer program drilling begins or stock pumping trying to rally price a bit for a PP
Little understood by many is when a company wants to do a Placement They approach lenders. If the lender is interested in the information they provide and believe they can promote it. Prior to anything taking place the funder will slowly accumulate as much as they think they need to cover the cost at rock bottom. With shares in hand the corporate responsibility is to begin releasing reports of an up coming program , how great they view the potential a whole bunch of historical facts and how great nearby discoveries have been in this very hot region. they create a furor of anxiety. Sounds good but has no actual true bearing on whether or not their own attempt will be successful or not. Most of it is Hype. They throw these hypothetical suggestions out. Spinning it as positive as possible with out breaking the law. Aiding the unsuspecting retailer in painting a glorious picture of wealth and riches in their own minds. So the crowd moves in grabbing shares taking out the asks day after day After rising significantly double what it was a few months ago volume picks up dramatically bringing in more of the heard. Then a pp is announced with full participation the volume during and after the pump came from the hidden money man taking profits on shares accumulated below. ANON. they have just made the money off retailers they intend to fund the PP with The placement is filled a few cents lower with equal warrants attached. There in a no loss situation Money came from other people by selling the hype. Now they have those p shares plus equal warrants which carry no risk. the shares they hold from the PP have a 4 month hold. Who cares they were purchased with money gained in the hyped rally The institution can then sell them of at any price with a profit as they wewe basically free to begin with. Their in a no loss situation both PP shares and warants if warrants don't come into the money no loss there either just let them expire or ask for an extension which will cost the company nothing.
It's a dirty game but within the boundries of the law As far as the Ceo's are supposed to protect share holders. That is to the best of their ability. Ty and prove their personal judgment & ability was greater than they offered Unless actual non hypothesized statements were made it is normally left open ended meaning we are not finished or there are other possible outcomes qualified by; Expect . Think , Perhaps , soon, Depending Due to circumstances
It is hare to determine true fundamentals on a corp with no income looking for something with other peoples money Much easier with companies like CMMC WEF. and otherlike corporations They already produce a product the world needs and generate income on which to operate you simply need to know is quality and experience of management Profit margin P/CF valuation Supply Vs demand current and projected plus market cycle so as to be in at proper time Chart reading support & resistance with a cycle indicator is very helpful I read the last 9 period segments out of 60 day frames reasonably accurate. revealing curving of the normal 90 day market cycles of many stocks covers a choice of approx. north american 10,000 stocks under $20 I don't need more than that the rest I ignore. I do not care where profits come from there are good and bad companies in every sector and they all nee the same basic business principal makeup to be successful and continue. Jim Pattisson or warren Buffet know little about oil fields, carpets car manufacturers, Air lines Transportation lines making coca cola or the fishing industry. Instead they locate and invest in the expertise & ability of those who are experts & do. Based on Market cycles , valuation and
I know nothing on how to run Teck But Don Lindsay does even if I did I would have no influence on decisions. Buy into coming demand with ideal experienced management I see both in WEF and CMMC over the next two years I can wait now in I will trade 30 to 50% on peaks and valleys WEF dividend 14 yield on a DRIP If I do not cash it in the kids will.
After more than forty years playing I still make mistakes sometimes but not nearly as much as when I started. Management is what I overlooked with Secova should have done more research. Properties are very promote-able. nothing to do now but wait for a change in approach
I'd love to hear views research or approach and strategy of others on anything they believe may be good I like learning about anything always have Investing is a full time hobby for me mind challenging Like still being in business can't learn it all and the curve never stops.
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|From: louel||4/15/2020 12:49:00 PM|
|Put together for Western forest however, Relative to most investments in similar manner Speculation further behind It looks like a two year program prior to decent recovery. which may well have demand lessening effects on many raw resource requirements. Don't need supplies to manufacture what there is no market for.|
They can say go back to work but they cannot force people to or force them to make purchases creating necessary demand. People who are uncertain and afraid do not take on long term commitments, No one actually knows when this is going to be over.
Governors of many states and premiers in Canada plus some of the regional managers in Europe have declined the option of opening the area which they are responsible for. Western Granted has some variation from the normal operating mill facilities. However here to the company is subject to the Macro conditions which will still carry a dominating effect. The only real thing which will mitigate the down holding pressure. Will be the availability of test clarifying whether or not, you and the person working next to you, or the people you are serving, or serving you are not infected or, have recovered and now safe with antibody protection so as not to transmit the virus to others.
China attempted to reopen a small sector. Resulting in some new cases being revealed on the forefront within days. The test waited upon is on the horizon potentially developed. Yet Not in hand quantity large enough to have any significant effect. allowing people back in a safe working environment.
Companies cannot reopen in profit if only Half or 70% of their workforce returns. While others who have reserve capital of their own choose not to . operating base costs are the same, production volume vastly reduced. and profit survival line destroyed ending in bankruptcies not only for the corporation itself. Also the residual businesses who depend on it. Corporations either make a profit or go out of business leaving workers totally on the breadline with no future employment to return to. is that better than a short wait projected at present under present modelling and strategies being employed ?
This is a report on forest corporation market condition at present looking forward. what happens currently affects 3 to 6 months out sales Permitting development fore shadows supply demand at least 90 days in major builders like & similar to TOLL BROTHERS it may precede construction activity by 9 months
NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) is based on a monthly survey of home builders. They are asked to rate current sales of single-family homes and sales expectations for the next six months and to rate traffic of prospective buyers. Scores for responses to each component are used to calculate a seasonally adjusted overall index, where a number over 50 indicates more builders view sales conditions as good than poor.
The NAHB housing market index in the US tumbled to 30 in April 2020, the lowest since June 2012 and well below market forecasts of 55. The current single-family sub-index declined to 36 from 79 in March; the sub-index for home sales for the next six months dropped to 36 from 75; and prospective buyers also went down to 13 from 56.
Mortgage Applications in the United States is expected to be down to 1.50 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Mortgage Applications in the United States to stand even lower at 0.90 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the United States MBA Mortgage Applications is projected to trend around 0.90 percent in 2021, according to our econometric models.
The advantage Western has over it's peers in it's make up is still not an advantage if housing markets are not robust. comets previously made by Dos had some very valid points. Applications to remain near .90% till 2021 corresponds with a vaccine being available ending the crises.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------To me reading the above reports I copy and pasted suggest Western and other lumber manufacturers as a longer term hold. Even without other unforeseen adverse conditions presenting themselves.
Thought the info may be of some value. other statistical reports and projections like this are available on various sectors and commodities including mineral demands going forward by subscription. I like some because they are first hand not spun or edited for spin in CEO reports to benefit their corporation I have witnessed in some cases
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|From: louel||4/15/2020 1:31:39 PM|
|Canada Grant |
Iread yoour posts some times on AG And respect your open mindedness allowing yourself to consider both the positive and negative freely. It is nice to see people who view reality rather than pictures painted on hope.
Hope is like hunting rabits and only finding tracks. Tracks make pretty thin soup.
That said I do believe Shaft creek has value under proper conditions. I read the report made up on Galore Creek by some writer. The information presented was so far out of date and present cost projections it was like reading a paid Basher The tunnel has been redesigned, tailing facility errors corrected no longer water problems. lower cost to better mill location increased reserves. If you flew up over the last year Galore was a floury of activity. one of my better friends from Smithers BC transports some crews bosses and executives from airport to Bob Quin helicopter pad by vehicle . A long drive In consequent conversations he has along the way with people along the way he suggests Newmont is encouraged in proceeding much further as the potential for creating a many cycle operation does present it'self with so many resources being explored right on the border of Galore Creeks milling facility and others are 20 Km or less away easy haul distance. Shaft Creek for one Romios another Jackson is working a former Teck property almost abutting the future mill should it prove up. without permitting, road and mill building costs Shaft creek would vastly increase it's IRR actual ROI is what business is about. spent more at Galore in two years as was spent at Shaft creek in the last 8. still at least 2 years out to see any kind of confirming action I would think. Teck does not have to tie up funds to hold S/C they already have control. and ES or EE does not appear to be excited abou bucking the current trend. Elmer is getting paid and Ernesto is financially comfortable, not desperate
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