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Any current thoughts on jumping back into the market? The swings have been incredible. I suspect there is more downside from here as the magnitude of the pandemic sinks in. I sold all my oil stocks before the biggest drop, and so have a fair bit of cash. Other than a few penny stocks which are not worth selling, I'm holding mostly gold (which surprised me when it dropped the way it did, but I see it recovering and hitting new highs over the next couple of years), with RY, BCE and EIF being my main other larger holds - having sold and repurchased them at a lower price 2 weeks later.
I've been jumping in and out with swing trades. Teck.b is back down to 9 so I bought again. Oil companies will see more pain but lots of bargains out there. The market is watching China to see evidence they really are returning back to work. Once that happens I expect the recovery to start. CUU couldn't fill the best deal in a PP ever offered but have no credibility left that they can do something with Schaft Creek. It's make or break for them this year. Teck went dark on SC this year with no work planned. Either a deal is being worked or the awful truth about SC will come out .
In hindsight, I wish I had done more swing trades this month. I didn't anticipate the wild swings we have seen. Then again, we'll likely see more of that in April. Agree, lots of incredibly priced companies out there. I'm not sure a perceived recovery in China will help much (initially), except for some short term enthusiasm. I think the bigger picture will be America, and that the magnitude of what happens there - once it becomes apparent - will further erode the market.
I'm watching oil, but will stay away for a while longer - maybe until the Fall. Teck too - I think it will drop further. CUU is a joke. The only reason I watch it is for entertainment purposes. After all the money I foolishly lost on it, I figure that's the one thing it can give back to me.
There are estimated 30 mines going to deplete their resourses abd close by 2040. Very little Copper in Warehouse storage. Perhaps a month when the economy ramps up again Just to stay even with current demand. It means they will have to open 14 new mines per year and of course we have all heard demand is projected to outstrip supply. Simply on population growth alone. We know it takes five years construction time so the time fame hardly allows The majors to build. Depending on their situation. The most likely approach will be acquisitions of good resources both turnkey and the highest grade easy access juniors. I see Nevada Copper Pumpkin Hollow, as a Target safe mining friendly State &country lower taxes easy access pretty well shovel ready. My personal preference is Copper Mountain. 31 year mine life yet at Princeton BC And working on another much the same in Australia. Right next door to Teck Highland Valley Paid down a lot of debt over the last few years. And is under valued down from $7.50 now low 30 Cent range Still operating in the higher grade pits any rise in copper prices they can adjust to to lower grades and still be profitable. I believe it is on some majors list already Daily Trade volumes 350 000 to a million. I am as of late inclined to go with those generating capital rather than those still trying to put it together.
I do hold KG and a coulple of others for the summer Drill program results rally and will sell then. That's my risk. Of course I still have SEK their still halted, Why ? don't reply to any inquiries I've sent Mabye it's a good thing at present.
I picked up a bunch of Western today at 60 cents and will add if it drops further. Trading 30% below fair value target 1 year is between 1 to $1.40 by any analyst. Dividend yield If I remember right somewhere between 12 and 14.8% Horgan gave the Company the monopoly on as much of the highest priced fiber on the west coast of BC Western red Cedar and Cypress. The company has the only six only mills on the Island which can cut the logs into lumber. Both of those species cannot be exported other than in lumber or ready for market form. Raw log export is denied if they can be profitably manufactured in the province. The company price drop was largely due to the 8 month long strike now settled. Financials are i good shape and has among the highest rated management in the industry.
The CEO Don Demons was born into the sawmill industry into a family owned sawmill which was located under the Second Narrows bridge. CFO Stewart Williams formerly CFO of Interfor took the company from aan adams lake and another mill in the fraser valley to the Third largest Canadian forest company prior to being hired by Brookfield Asset management to come over to work with Western after they assumed it out of bankruptcy in 2008. I have placed a subsequent order lower just in case it spikes down. WEF trades as you can see 1 to two million shares daily. It would not surprise now that WEF has ample timber going forward and not affected by the beetle epidemic, to see one of the majors or Jim Pattisson purchase WEF It has six fully modern mills an Canada and one in Washington plus a reman plant in Arlington Wa. both of which bypass US tariffs. Secondly the New Union contract covers the next five years of operation. And the US department of Commerce says it intends to reduce the import duties on Canadian lumber from 20% to 4 % in mid August. Another Boon for WEF's profit line.
There has been a share buy back program in place which has reduced the outstanding float by near 20 million shares and is still ongoing. Former high was $3. Based on the float reduction alone without the added production facilities it would equate to a share price near $4.25 when the economy recovers.
That is also in line with normal forestry industry bull market trading values which has historically for over fifty years been 1.8 X BV per share Lumber unlike Oil and coal is one product which is not trying to be made obsolete People will always want homes. And in China or other Earthquake zones it is far superior to brick and mortar.
As s I'm in the dividend will help the wait. Always do your own research prior to making any investment decision.
That said I am not an investment adviser and never recommend any buy or sell It is your money and your decision If I have made errors in my assessment please feel free to point them out I'd appreciate it
Lots of time to enter between now and the previous high either above or below current price and still make money over the next 2 to three years. 5 Xthe investment to the former high with a dividend along the way All of which I will put in a DRIP I will however also trade the peaks and valleys. If you are using Ichimoko it is much complimented by another Japanese trend following indicator Heiken Ashi which fits well into it. simply a different approach to candle reading. it is an indicator so regular candle charts should also be viewed on other charts. Below is some information on it. Hienen Ashi works well with trending stocks but is not great when a security is trading sideways When reversals are indicated I also reffer to MACD for either over widening or narrowing convergence divergence Over widening of MACD will many times be a over bought or sold signal in steep ascent or declines near the end of a trend. Other normal indicators of personal choice also work well
Basically changing one chart to Heiken ashi makes it far easier to see the trend Like normal candles when bulls and bears are getting ballanced candles will usually get smaller with both wicks and tails spinning tops with with or with out a body Indecision of where strength is. setting in Seek and there is much more info available. I don't use stockcharts H/A is available there I know as I have seen it mentioned in chart school I sponge on once in a while.
I only took Half the poition I wanted today and am reserving the other half just in case it declines a bit yet. lessens the loss till reversal. Plu If it rises from here the part I purchased will give room for fluctuation. bring the cost average down below the next buy making room for a stop at 0 loss.
I have H/K set up in one of my 12 separate chart windows with different time frames or indicators. I can then glance at any stock I'm viewing with it by clicking window number two. the platform when changing asecurity changes all ten windows at the same time. If I wish to compare charts I just switch to a 2nd layout with double screens which hold separate charts for comparison to see how it is preforming compared to the sector the industry or other stocks there in .
any body who has not picked up at least a couple of thousand or so shares of at WEF or CMMC is missing an opportunity wef I see Vol@price resistance $1.14 or perhaps a hickup in the 80 to 90 cent gap. IStarted in five K increments at 60 Cents 2 days later my stop was at 61 when it breaks the 20 Ma I will double up with the stop at 65 By continuing to do this it this guarantees a no loss trade strategy. CMMC is another I am working the same form 30 cents hen I mentioned it only in 10k Acquisitions My stop on 20K in at 36 cents I see volatility of peaks and valleys beginning around 64 cents but continuing upwards as the copper and other mineral prices in the market continues to climb. Cmmc is Profitable enough operating under present pricing they switched to a closer pit with lower grade ore. Saving the Higher grade resource to capitalize on coming higher mineral prices. which should increase the bottom line exponentially and share price should respond accordingly. the time to begin a position is near the bottom ready for or at reversal when value alone has derisked it. Unlike some I do not average down but rather average up as it rises using my earlier acquisition to guaranteed position for a no loss stop and flexibility for fluctuations. If it does take it out there is still a profit and it only takes 695 to $9.95 getting back in when it reverse. with 10k that is only a one cent move and still have $80 left over. One of the best information I ever read was by Warren Buffet He said small profits add up and they far outnumber than large ones. What ever you take off the table no matter how small is better than a loss. Making money is easy in the market But over rulling greed and selling before you loose it again is a learned skill that is hard to master.
I listened to Martha Stokes CMT. of Technitrader She said picking stocks or buying into a trend is simple. Knowing enough to exit just ahead of the heard while you still have profits then holding the door open while they all rush out chasing their losses down the slope is harder to learn. I use trend following and cycle indicators which can be adjusted to where they should be relative to their highs and lows along with some fundamentals for financial security purposes.
Like any one else I make some mistakes but having been trading the markets since 1972 and studying every thing I can for the last 10 years I am getting more accurate and profitable.
One thing I have discovered operating companies which are producing some thing with a Positive EPS are far easier to figure out, safer and more profitable to invest in than explorers punching holes in the ground hoping to find something using other peoples money.
I believe Teck resources is also a safe buy at this time according to the cycle indicator I use just that there are a dozen lower priced safe stocks offering much the same % return for less investment. And having three or four rather than just one offer diversification. Remember this is not a financial but rather a virus health correction. Companies who were doing well are still ok and will soon recover better than before. as they were forced dormant warehouse supplies were dwindling as things open up there is no warehouse cushion Demand is going to outstrip supply of these operating companies. Many takeovers are in the offing and I would not be suprised Copper mountain with a 31year LOM and another like it in the making is a target I believe he company may have a poison pill in place to guarantee a fair price if an offer or hostile attempt is made. Even with out a take out $5 long term in not out of the question CMMC was previously $7.50 on less asset value or development The Third mill is ready to install to increase thruput for a cost of only $22 M . That is Peanuts for any major who would be interested. Copper mountain has slightly delayed doing it quickly. Cautiously protecting from debt overload. Very smart I would say. Starting in easy growing ones position safely then trading 30 % of it on the peaks and valleys based on historical technical chart reading. I can see money being made here CHeers