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To: Eric who wrote (10127)6/17/2019 12:05:51 PM
From: Dan R
   of 12726
 
Couple questions on their data-

Where are they getting $3K + for honda maintenance over 75K miles? I'd bet it's less than $1K. Maybe 1 set of tires, 8 oil changes (they are recommending 10K now), one set of pads (at most). Seems a little high on the estimate for anyone who has ever owned a Honda and I've never owned a new one (or new car for that matter)

Tax rebate is going away, so they need to stop putting that in there in their calculations.

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To: MorganBucks who wrote (10157)6/17/2019 12:10:50 PM
From: kidl
   of 12726
 
October 4, 2018 Analyst News, Consumer Goods, Top News 0 Comments

Berenberg Bank Keeps Their Buy Rating on Tesla (TSLA)

By Austin Angelo


Berenberg Bank analyst Alexander Haissl maintained a Buy rating on Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) on October 3 and set a price target of $500. The company’s shares closed yesterday at $281.83.

According to TipRanks.com, Haissl is ranked #4543 out of 4884 analysts.

Tesla has an analyst consensus of Hold, with a price target consensus of $315.48, representing an 11.9% upside. In a report issued on September 18, Oppenheimer also assigned a Buy rating to the stock with a $385 price target.

analystratings.com

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To: A.J. Mullen who wrote (10153)6/17/2019 12:21:09 PM
From: semi_infinite
   of 12726
 
IMO it was naive of Musk to believe Saudi wealth fund was working with him instead of trying to bury Tesla. It will be in the best interest of SA (via Aramco) to optimize the value of their oil reserves for at least the next 2-3 decades and they would like to stretch that to 5+decades. "Helping" Musk is not in their best interest. Glad Musk didn't go there.

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To: Dan R who wrote (10160)6/17/2019 12:54:05 PM
From: Eric
   of 12726
 
The biggy I can think of off the top of my hat is most Honda's have interference engines, that darn timing belt.

There are a couple other things too.

Of course if you are a good backyard mechanic you could do most of this stuff yourself.

Just parts.

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From: Eric6/17/2019 1:04:17 PM
1 Recommendation   of 12726
 
Tesla / Maxwell: It Seems Mainstream News Coverage Has Missed The Mark



Jun 17, 2019 at 9:34am



By: George Bower

It may not be about battery tech, but instead, an increased rate of production and capital savings.

Tesla — and essentially all other automakers — are dealing with battery cell constraints. While most mainstream articles point to the Tesla / Maxwell acquisition's worth when it comes to battery tech and energy density, Maxwell's solvent-free electrode coating technology should work to drive down battery cell costs and allow for higher battery production rates and decreased equipment costs.

More Tesla / Maxwell Content:



Tesla's Maxwell Acquisition May Mean Improved Batteries That Cost Less



5 Reasons Why Tesla Acquired Maxwell Technologies: Video

There’s been lots of press lately about Panasonic investing or not investing in additional production capacity at Tesla Gigafactory 1 in Nevada. First, Nikkei Asia reported that Panasonic was freezing any further investment in Gigafactory 1. Then, Tesla combatted that, stating it would keep investing but steer focus on production rate.

The quickest, easiest and most cost-effective way to increase production rate is to run the lines faster. But, not all battery-manufacturing equipment allows this luxury. Sometimes, you need to get multiples of the same equipment versus just cranking up the speed. It’s analogous to a toaster. You can’t just crank up the heat if you want more pieces of toast per hour. You need to buy more toasters.

In our estimation, based on studying the solvent-drying process and an Argonne paper referenced later, the traditional solvent-drying process is like the toaster analogy. If you want to increase thruput, you need to buy more solvent-evaporating ovens. More solvent-evaporating ovens cost money and occupy large areas of the production floor.

Tesla’s cells are high energy density. This implies a thicker electrode coating. The thicker the coating, the more time it takes to drive off the solvent. Thick electrode coatings compound the drying problem.

“Maxwell’s dry battery electrode offers significantly higher loading and produces a thick electrode that allows high energy density.” -Maxwell

“16X Production Capacity Increase.” -Maxwell

Also, in our estimation, the production capacity potential of Maxwell’s process is at least as important or possibly MORE important than the potential energy density increase.

Let’s look at the traditional solvent-based electrode coating method in order to understand how we came to our conclusions.

Traditional solvent-based electrode coating methods consume a large part of the production process. In the following figure, each processing step’s size on the page is approximately proportional to the plant area. The area just for the electrode preparation, coating, evaporation and evaporant recovery is almost 1/3 of the total plant area.



Special machines lay a thin layer of slurry onto copper or aluminum sheets to make the electrodes. Then, in a continuous manner, the coated electrode sheets go through a large, long oven used to evaporate the solvent. The solvent must also be recovered and reused.



All this solvent-based slurry manufacturing equipment is expensive and consumes 15% of the total capital equipment costs.



Also see: “Modeling the Cost of Lithium Ion batteries for Electric Drive Vehicles” Argonne, ANL 11/32, section 5.4 Adjustment of Costs for Varying Production Volumes and section, table 5.4, and section 5.3.3, Electrode Coating on Current-Collector Foil.

In summary:




Have we solved the puzzle? We think its likely that Tesla likes this process because it allows them to squeeze more production out of an existing line and the new method of coating the electrode seems to be the key. However, there’s a fly in the ointment.

We said that the traditional solvent-based electrode coating technique was not amenable to just cranking up processing speed. If you wanted to crank out more cells per hour, you have to buy multiples of that equipment. That appears to be true based on the Argonne study. However, the fly in the ointment is that it looks like most of the equipment on the line also has that problem (table 5.4 in the Argonne report).

So, we are still missing a piece of the puzzle. We still don’t know enough about Maxwell’s new process to completely understand. Perhaps the traditional solvent-based coating technique has a limit to how thick the coating can be? Perhaps, with Maxwell’s new process, Tesla can increase the coating thickness a bit more and that’s how it'll increase energy density?

At any rate, it's good food for thought. Let us know what you think in the comment section.

insideevs.com

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From: Jamie1536/17/2019 1:26:40 PM
   of 12726
 
They say Musk deleted Twitter. I wonder how long that will last. The latest dustup came after he posted a pic and didn't cite the artist. The artist was giddy but wanted to know why he didn't use her name. He deleted all his messages about the image, the image and then deleted Twitter.

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To: Eric who wrote (10163)6/17/2019 1:33:44 PM
From: Dan R
   of 12726
 
Agreed. and even most decent backyard folks shy away from timing belts given the tools and the need to be perfect (or bad things happen). But the interval is 105-110K on older models and the newer ones are chain driven cams so they do not have a defined interval and will most likely be good for 250-300K+

Perhaps a water pump and maybe a trans service but the article said 15K miles a year for 5 years so at 75K nothing like that would need to be done.

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To: Jamie153 who wrote (10165)6/17/2019 1:40:02 PM
From: kidl
   of 12726
 
I saw this story too. The man seems to be addicted to Twitter.

The part I don’t get ... The man apparently works some 100 hours/week. How does he find the time to fart around with inconsequential tweets?

The rather bizarre story:

businessinsider.com


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To: kidl who wrote (10167)6/17/2019 1:46:45 PM
From: Jamie153
   of 12726
 
Investors are happy. The stock is up over 5%.

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To: Jamie153 who wrote (10168)6/17/2019 2:04:13 PM
From: kidl
   of 12726
 
Investors are happy. The stock is up over 5%.
Maybe this should read "Traders are happy". I am :-)

My personal current bet ... Musk will get close to his Q2 delivery target but Q2 financials will be ugly. A great trading opportunity!

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