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From: neolib10/26/2021 4:37:27 PM
of 44245
 
So the one negative I see is that Q4 is guided for only 4% QoQ, and its attributed to Epyc + semicustom. This is offset a bit by GMs guided +1.5% to 49.5 from 48% this Qtr.

I'm a little surprised that semicustom is guided for growth, I thought that Q3 was now typically the high for console. It seems odd that C&G is apparently guided for flat (or down??) for Q4. I wonder if they will be beat up for that in the CC??

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To: neolib who wrote (43313)10/26/2021 4:38:26 PM
From: neolib
of 44245
 
Full year guided +65% vs prior +60%.

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To: Joe NYC who wrote (43311)10/26/2021 4:47:12 PM
From: neolib
of 44245
 
Well, they averaged 107 if those numbers aren't rounded too much.

The AH response now is rather muted, up less than $1 from the close.

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To: neolib who wrote (43315)10/26/2021 5:00:54 PM
From: fastpathguru
of 44245
 


et voila

fpg

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To: Vattila who wrote (43294)10/26/2021 5:06:56 PM
From: Vattila
of 44245
 
AMD 2021-Q3 EPS Contest (non-GAAP) — Results

Actual numbers: $0.73 EPS on $4.31B revenue
Q4 outlook: $4.50B ± 0.10B revenue

RankUserEPSRevenueQ4 Outlook
1Pravin Kamdar$0.73$4.22B$4.44B
2Joe NYC$0.72$4.31B$4.70B
3neolib$0.74$4.35B$4.55B
4Vattila$0.75$4.25B$4.50B
5Kelvin C.P. Wang$0.75$4.40B$4.70B
6rzborusa$0.76$4.44B$4.60B
7gvatty$0.69$4.42B$4.75B
8fastpathguru$0.77$4.50B$4.80B
- Zacks Estimate$0.66$4.12B$4.25B

For the third straight quarter this year, we all trounced Zacks — even Fastpathguru's outlier was closer to the real numbers! Congratulations to Pravin for hitting bullseye on the EPS, and a honourable mention to Joe for hitting the revenue spot on. I got the outlook right though!

On our leaderboard for 2021, Neolib climbs to the top with his solid entry overall. See below.

Thanks to all for playing! And praise and gratitude to AMD for great execution!

---

Previous Quarters 2021

AMD 2021-Q2 EPS Contest (non-GAAP) — Results

Actual numbers: $0.63 EPS on $3.85B revenue
Q3 outlook: $4.10B ± 0.10B revenue

RankUserEPSRevenueQ3 Outlook
1rzborusa$0.63$3.92B$4.16B
2gvatty$0.62$3.78B$4.15B
3Pravin Kamdar$0.62$3.72B$3.92B
4Joe NYC$0.61$3.86B$4.25B
5Kelvin C.P. Wang$0.65$3.90B$4.30B
6neolib$0.60$3.74B$3.95B
7Vattila$0.60$3.70B$3.90B
- Zacks Estimate$0.54$3.62B$3.78B


AMD 2021-Q1 EPS Contest (non-GAAP) — Results

Actual numbers: $0.52 EPS on $3.45B revenue
Q2 outlook: $3.60B ± 0.10B revenue

RankUserEPSRevenueQ2 Outlook
1rzborusa$0.52$3.33B$3.43B
2gvatty$0.51$3.35B$3.50B
3Joe NYC$0.54$3.35B$3.45B
4Vattila$0.50$3.30B$3.40B
5engineer$0.50$3.28B$3.51B
6Kelvin C.P. Wang$0.55$3.40B$3.60B
7neolib$0.56$3.40B$3.47B
8Pravin Kamdar$0.48$3.25B$3.55B
- Zacks Estimate$0.44$3.21B$3.28B

---

Scoreboards

Note that, unlike the main EPS Contest, which is primarily ranked by EPS, these boards are ranked by overall score, which is an equally weighted average of subscores. Scores are calculated as (1+error)^-2 per quarter and normalized for the year by sum(scores)/4. The squaring of the denominator in the score calculation is just done to spread out the scores a little. There is no explicit relative weighting of EPS and revenue error, i.e. a 1 cent error in EPS equals a $10M error in revenue.

AMD 2021 EPS Contest Scores

2021 Full year scores







Rank User Entries EPS score Revenue score Outlook score Overall score
1 neolib 3 0.71 0.66 0.61 0.6619
2 Kelvin C.P. Wang 3 0.72 0.67 0.60 0.6595
3 Joe NYC 3 0.73 0.70 0.55 0.6592
4 rzborusa 3 0.74 0.61 0.61 0.6540
5 gvatty 3 0.72 0.63 0.59 0.6479
6 Pravin Kamdar 3 0.73 0.58 0.63 0.6446
7 Vattila 3 0.72 0.60 0.60 0.6376
- Zacks Estimate 3 0.64 0.50 0.45 0.5312
8 engineer 1 0.24 0.18 0.21 0.2111
9 fastpathguru 1 0.23 0.18 0.15 0.1855







2021 Quarterly average







Rank User Entries EPS score Revenue score Outlook score Overall score
1 neolib 3 0.95 0.88 0.82 0.8825
2 Kelvin C.P. Wang 3 0.95 0.89 0.80 0.8794
3 Joe NYC 3 0.97 0.93 0.74 0.8789
4 rzborusa 3 0.98 0.82 0.82 0.8719
5 gvatty 3 0.96 0.84 0.79 0.8638
6 Pravin Kamdar 3 0.97 0.77 0.84 0.8594
7 Vattila 3 0.95 0.80 0.80 0.8501
8 engineer 1 0.96 0.73 0.84 0.8445
9 fastpathguru 1 0.92 0.71 0.59 0.7420
- Zacks Estimate 3 0.86 0.67 0.60 0.7083


AMD 2020 EPS Contest Scores

2020 Full year scores







RankUserEntriesEPS scoreRevenue scoreOutlook scoreOverall score
1Vattila40.950.850.650.8169
2neolib40.980.800.610.7972
-Zacks Estimate40.940.790.620.7856
3Pravin Kamdar30.720.620.500.6128
4rzborusa30.690.570.470.5812
5Kelvin C.P. Wang10.240.230.170.2150
6jc47410.230.190.190.2020







2020 Quarterly average







RankUserEntriesEPS scoreRevenue scoreOutlook scoreOverall score
1Kelvin C.P. Wang10.960.920.690.8601
2Pravin Kamdar30.960.830.660.8171
3Vattila40.950.850.650.8169
4jc47410.920.740.760.8080
5neolib40.980.800.610.7972
-Zacks Estimate40.940.790.620.7856
6rzborusa30.930.760.630.7749


AMD 2019 EPS Contest Scores

2019 Full year scores










RankUser


EntriesEPS scoreRevenue scoreOutlook scoreOverall score
-Zacks Estimate


40.990.970.960.9708
1Vattila


40.980.960.840.9264
2Pravin Kamdar


40.980.950.840.9258
3rzborusa


30.730.700.700.7106
4neolib


30.730.720.650.6977
5knykny


20.490.460.400.4496
6gzubeck


20.460.370.320.3822
7THE WATSONYOUTH


10.250.240.250.2468
8FUBHO


10.210.200.250.2199
9Harvey Allen


10.200.170.250.2058










2019 Quarterly average










RankUser


EntriesEPS scoreRevenue scoreOutlook scoreOverall score
1THE WATSONYOUTH


11.000.961.000.9871
-Zacks Estimate


40.990.970.960.9708
2rzborusa


30.970.930.940.9475
3neolib


30.970.960.870.9303
4Vattila


40.980.960.840.9264
5Pravin Kamdar


40.980.950.840.9258
6knykny


20.970.930.800.8991
7FUBHO


10.840.801.000.8796
8Harvey Allen


10.800.671.000.8230
9gzubeck


20.920.730.640.7643

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From: neolib10/26/2021 5:06:56 PM
of 44245
 
Frontier chipping in on GPU revenue.

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To: neolib who wrote (43318)10/26/2021 5:09:22 PM
From: neolib
of 44245
 
If I got this right, Epyc was high double digit QoQ growth, but since all of em&sc was +20% that means sc was >20%??

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To: fastpathguru who wrote (43316)10/26/2021 5:10:01 PM
From: neolib
of 44245
 
Yeah, she just said remains on track for end of year.

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From: neolib10/26/2021 5:19:54 PM
of 44245
 
First question is about Q4 growth in C&G and GMs growth.

Calling PC market flattish for Q4, not down. But data center and console have the growth.

Better GM is higher server GM, offset a bit by console.

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To: neolib who wrote (43321)10/26/2021 5:23:38 PM
From: neolib
of 44245
 
How is spending environment in data center, and what about roadmap competition in data center.

Both cloud and enterprise good in 2021, and see that continuing. Milan very well positioned, grew faster than Rome, Zen4 and Genoa well positioned.

AMD did well in hypers, is there more share gain there and what about Enterprise?

AMD has been more weighted to the hypers, more opportunity there still to expand the workloads, and more customers there too, and Enterprise Q3 was good, and Milan making traction there too. See growth in both cloud and enterprise still.

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