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From: Joe NYC10/21/2021 7:02:07 PM
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Article on upcoming Mi200, which has been shipping since Summer, and soon to be announced.

Killer Instinct: AMD’s Multi-Chip MI200 GPU Readies for a Major Global Debut

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To: Vattila who wrote (43144)10/21/2021 9:26:45 PM
From: Joe NYC
of 56622
Revenue: 4.31
EPS: 0.72
Q4 forecast: 4.70

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To: rzborusa who wrote (43239)10/21/2021 9:52:22 PM
From: Joe NYC
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I think it is notable that Sapphire Rapids will enter production in Q1, ramp in Q2. But launch in Q1?

I had to go back, but that's what Pat said.

At this pace, it is possible that Genoa will actually overtake Sapphire Rapids in its real release. So it seems Intel is still screwed in the server market for another year, at least.

What is still saving Intel are the "captive" segments, that like 5G edge servers and Enterprise, where AMD has not had a strong penetration (even though AMD reported some progress on Enterprise last Q).

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To: Joe NYC who wrote (43245)10/21/2021 11:12:53 PM
From: rzborusa
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There was a mention, somewhere, that Intel held prices on some of the retail market, which they are still semi-monopolists in. Without which their revenue and margins would be more depressed.

Rather than going into disaster mode, which my girl friend experienced when she backed into an airplane propeller, disassedher, ..... Intel is enabling both themselves and AMD to maintain margins. That would not be possible if AMD had unlimited wafers.

Things are bad enough for Intel and will likely get worse unless a rabbit can be extracted from where I can't guess.

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To: rzborusa who wrote (43246)10/21/2021 11:44:08 PM
From: Joe NYC
of 56622
Here is another supercomputer in Sweden being installed.

65,000 Epyc Cores and future Graphics modules will have:

GPU partitionThis partition will be equipped with GPU nodes, each of which will be configured with:

one AMD EPYC™ processor with 64 cores (which is currently under development)512 GB memoryfour AMD Instinct™ GPUs (which are currently being developed)


Which looks like another supercomputer win for Mi200

Dardel | KTH

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To: rzborusa who wrote (43246)10/21/2021 11:58:41 PM
From: Joe NYC
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If AMD had unlimited wafers, I wonder if any of the cloud / hyperscalers would even consider Ice Lake. Intel market share would collapse. It might be that the demand supplied by Intel to Hyperscalers is the demand that AMD can't satisfy (if the lead times are really ~20+ weeks for Milan).

Looking further, Sapphire Rapids will have the same cores as Alder Lake big cores, and these cores can be quite power hungry when pushed. I can't find the link, but all core clock speed of 5.0 - 5.2 GHz on 8 of those cores burned 400 Watts.

Since SPR will have some 56 of these cores, they will have to be clocked way down. It seems Intel is still fiddling with the design to squeeze something competitive out of it.

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To: Joe NYC who wrote (43248)10/22/2021 2:16:19 AM
From: rzborusa
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but all core clock speed of 5.0 - 5.2 GHz on 8 of those cores burned 400 Watts.
Putting something like that, or under clocked, in any computer would be what you would do if that were the only alternative. But, it is like putting a piano in your kids tree house.

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To: Joe NYC who wrote (43244)10/22/2021 4:24:22 AM
From: Vattila
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AMD 2021-Q3 EPS Contest (non-GAAP)

UserEPSRevenueQ4 Outlook
Joe NYC$0.72$4.31B$4.70B
Zacks Estimate$0.66$4.12B$4.25B

PS. Updated with Joe's entry. Nice numbers!

Background Information

AMD's Q3 outlook: $4.10B ± 0.10B revenue
Analyst consensus/whisper: $0.67/$0.71 EPS


Previous Quarters 2021

AMD 2021-Q2 EPS Contest (non-GAAP) — Results

Actual numbers: $0.63 EPS on $3.85B revenue
Q3 outlook: $4.10B ± 0.10B revenue

RankUserEPSRevenueQ3 Outlook
3Pravin Kamdar$0.62$3.72B$3.92B
4Joe NYC$0.61$3.86B$4.25B
5Kelvin C.P. Wang$0.65$3.90B$4.30B
- Zacks Estimate$0.54$3.62B$3.78B

AMD 2021-Q1 EPS Contest (non-GAAP) — Results

Actual numbers: $0.52 EPS on $3.45B revenue
Q2 outlook: $3.60B ± 0.10B revenue

RankUserEPSRevenueQ2 Outlook
3Joe NYC$0.54$3.35B$3.45B
6Kelvin C.P. Wang$0.55$3.40B$3.60B
8Pravin Kamdar$0.48$3.25B$3.55B
- Zacks Estimate$0.44$3.21B$3.28B

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To: Joe NYC who wrote (43234)10/22/2021 4:58:36 AM
From: Vattila
of 56622
Nice to see AMD up yesterday (my birthday!) and in AH and premarket today (+2%), showing competitive strength after Intel's alarming report (now down 10% in the premarket).

By the way, Soitec was also nicely up yesterday, after reporting stellar numbers on Wednesday (revenue up 40%, guidance up 45%, H1 up 53%, best ever). The stock is up almost 15% the last 5 days.

I have had a good week. Looking forward to AMD earnings!

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From: Frank Sully10/22/2021 11:12:27 AM
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Intel: Keeps Getting Worse

Oct. 21, 2021 10:13 PM ET


The company has guided to a Q4'21 revenue goal inline with analyst targets around $18.3 billion while the EPS guidance is below estimates at $0.90. What really stands out with guidance is the gross margin target of 53.5%. Intel has now forecast the typically strong Q4'21 revenues will generate a 650 basis point hit to gross margins after just reporting a quarter with 56.5% margins.

In essence, Intel will report a EPS of just $0.90 after hitting $1.52 last Q4. The company is forecasting revenues falling again. The indications remain that Intel is picking up low margin CPU chip deals while competitors AMD ( AMD) and Nvidia ( NVDA) are taking the higher margin chips in data centers.

Ugly Setup

Heading into these quarterly results, Intel was already facing tons of lost market share to AMD and Nvidia. These chip companies have been growing revenues at 40%+ annual clips while Intel can't even grow anymore.

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