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   Technology StocksAMD, ARMH, INTC, NVDA


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To: Kelvin C.P. Wang who wrote (42323)8/2/2021 3:57:03 PM
From: neolib
of 45155
 
Yeah, I've seen them (and appreciate his efforts), just saying that AMD is now already valued as a premier semi company, with a price that matches. NVDA is still is the stratosphere however.

Here are the top USA Semi Cos:

INTC: 218B/18.7B

MU: 87B/6.6B

QCOM: 167B/6.3B
AVGO: 199B/5.5B
NVDA: 492B/5.4B
TXN: 176B/4.6B
AMD/XLNX: 165B/5.4B

We have arrived, that should be clear. AMD is already a premier "trusted supplier" or whatever terms he was using in those tables, and its valued that way. NVDA is only the real standout for being over valued in the list above, and you could say INTC is the standout for being undervalued. AMD fits nicely with the rest of the back. Going forward, the upside for AMD is if they can continue to grab marketshare from INTC and NVDA at a fast pace. I could like a 500B marketcap for AMD!

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To: Vattila who wrote (42326)8/2/2021 4:08:08 PM
From: Kelvin C.P. Wang
of 45155
 
I am glad you resolved the private matter and it was not AMD's performance or problems.

I think over $200/share is more realistic than ever within two years. $40B revenue is probably hard to do in two years.

NVDA was more than interesting to me. I had a massive amount of shares when it was $12, then when it doubled, I sold all.

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To: neolib who wrote (42327)8/2/2021 4:12:50 PM
From: Kelvin C.P. Wang
of 45155
 
500B cap is good for me. One year from now it would be a lot more clear on that front.

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To: neolib who wrote (42327)8/2/2021 4:55:11 PM
From: Joe NYC
of 45155
 
The TAM is there. AMD TAM with Xilinx will be much greater than NVidia. But the gains of market share are always challenging.

I think AMD has a chance to turn the tide against NVDA, the same way AMD did against Intel.. RDNA 2 demonstrated that AMD can match them, and RDNA 3 has a potential to meaningfully surpass NVDA on client side of things.

But the pile-up on on TSMC 5nm will make it difficult to gain on NViidia. Nvidia is apparently moving to TSMC 5nm with both of their next gen design, client and datacenter...

I am seriously hoping that Zen 3, new stepping will give it a lot of extra life. Years of extra life. Hopefully, it is going to be 6nm and can accept many layers of L3.

Because bypassing a bottleneck in one dimension by going full blast in a different dimension is similar unconventional thinking that helped AMD to become the technology leader in server market.

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To: Joe NYC who wrote (42330)8/2/2021 5:01:10 PM
From: FJB
of 45155
 
It looks like ARM architecture is doing well. Do you think ARM is a threat to the projections for x64?

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To: FJB who wrote (42331)8/2/2021 5:18:55 PM
From: Joe NYC
of 45155
 
It is a threat, but I think it is more of a threat to Intel with 80% market share and going down then AMD with 20% and going up.

Some smart people have concluded that the instruction set, and overhead of x86 is becoming trivial in terms of hardware needed for execution, in big cores.

I think the bigger threat is not pure Arm vendors selling Arm into server space, even client space. The bigger threat are vertical integrators, like Apple or AWS.

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To: Joe NYC who wrote (42332)8/2/2021 5:20:51 PM
From: FJB
of 45155
 
Amazon looks like they are doing it.

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To: Vattila who wrote (42326)8/2/2021 5:31:06 PM
From: neolib
of 45155
 
I find it hard to understand the extent of Nvidia's mindshare in the market.

If they own ARM and AI, it would be justified. Owning ARM will help them continue to own AI, as I assume Nvidia AI tech will become the standard ARM AI IP.

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To: Kelvin C.P. Wang who wrote (42329)8/2/2021 5:35:17 PM
From: Pravin Kamdar
of 45155
 
I think AMD has a shot at $4 per share next year with the combined AMD+XLNX and 1.62B shares. At less than half the multiple of NVDA, were still over $160 per share.

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To: FJB who wrote (42333)8/2/2021 5:42:52 PM
From: Joe NYC
of 45155
 
I think the cloud providers will in the end go with the solution with greatest value to them.

If Google Cloud starts seriously beating AWS with its Tau offerings, my guess is that AWS will just pragmatically shift its preferences to respond to market pressures.

Google Tau VM is launching this quarter, and they already announces Twitter and Snap as potential clients.


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