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   Technology StocksAMD, ARMH, INTC, NVDA


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From: Joe NYC8/2/2021 2:48:16 PM
of 45340
 
Something seriously wrong with the Steam survey:

"Windows 7 64-bit users increased 2.91% in June and 3.51% in July. Last month also saw Linux systems reach 1% for the first time in years."

Latest Steam survey shows AMD rebounding, an excellent month for Ampere, and a Windows 7 resurgence | TechSpot

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To: Joe NYC who wrote (42316)8/2/2021 2:55:56 PM
From: Kelvin C.P. Wang
of 45340
 
What is your thinking about INTC using TSMC 3nm? Possible? I think it is fake news. Why would TSMC empower a strong and direct competitor, even with lots of cash that TSMC does not need, but???

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To: neolib who wrote (42319)8/2/2021 2:58:42 PM
From: Kelvin C.P. Wang
of 45340
 
Vattila showed specific levels of predictions with Pie-in-the-Sky scenario as the highest at well over $300/share, taking over majority of x86 market share. I made up the numbers per my recollection. He had several emails on the predictions.

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To: Kelvin C.P. Wang who wrote (42322)8/2/2021 3:02:19 PM
From: Joe NYC
of 45340
 
My thinking now is that the scale of this is likely much smaller that the Nikei article implied.

Why would TSMC empower a strong and direct competitor, even with lots of cash that TSMC does not need, but???
Yes. TSMC management are not fools.

There are some interesting quotes from the past, that spell out TSMC thinking about Intel. That Intel is the biggest competitor of TSMC and TSMC strategy is to enable their own customers to compete effectively against Intel.

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To: Kelvin C.P. Wang who wrote (42323)8/2/2021 3:09:20 PM
From: Joe NYC
of 45340
 
Vattila showed specific levels of predictions with Pie-in-the-Sky scenario as the highest at well over $300/share, taking over majority of x86 market share. I made up the numbers per my recollection. He had several emails on the predictions.
In theory, AMD could have sold 8 client chips for single server chip (substrate permitting). And client has grown way above anyone's expectations.

AMD found a sound strategy, in light of component shortages and capacity constraints. That client PC growth potential was less lucrative than the server potential.

I think that AMD client products are competitive and deserve greater market share, when the shortages ease.

Both on CPU and GPU sides.

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To: Kelvin C.P. Wang who wrote (42314)8/2/2021 3:30:52 PM
From: Vattila
of 45340
 
That was a private matter that had nothing to do with AMD and my view of their prospects. The matter was resolved without me having to sell.

At the time I said I thought Lisa Su had more in the tank, which has proven to be right.

For my AMD scenarios, see my latest post on that below. Note that these are not predictions. Instead it is an attempt to divide all possible outcomes into 5 scenarios and then quantify them by assigning a probable value range for revenue, CAGR, GM, EPS, market capitalisation, and stock price, as well as a likelihood for each scenario to pan out in reality. You can follow links to replied-to messages for the history of these scenarios (or search the forum subject for "prospects" or "precarious").

Message 33320663

PS. Interestingly, my pie-in-the-sky scenario is just peanuts in terms of market capitalisation when you look at Nvidia. I find it hard to understand the extent of Nvidia's mindshare in the market.

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To: Kelvin C.P. Wang who wrote (42323)8/2/2021 3:57:03 PM
From: neolib
of 45340
 
Yeah, I've seen them (and appreciate his efforts), just saying that AMD is now already valued as a premier semi company, with a price that matches. NVDA is still is the stratosphere however.

Here are the top USA Semi Cos:

INTC: 218B/18.7B

MU: 87B/6.6B

QCOM: 167B/6.3B
AVGO: 199B/5.5B
NVDA: 492B/5.4B
TXN: 176B/4.6B
AMD/XLNX: 165B/5.4B

We have arrived, that should be clear. AMD is already a premier "trusted supplier" or whatever terms he was using in those tables, and its valued that way. NVDA is only the real standout for being over valued in the list above, and you could say INTC is the standout for being undervalued. AMD fits nicely with the rest of the back. Going forward, the upside for AMD is if they can continue to grab marketshare from INTC and NVDA at a fast pace. I could like a 500B marketcap for AMD!

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To: Vattila who wrote (42326)8/2/2021 4:08:08 PM
From: Kelvin C.P. Wang
of 45340
 
I am glad you resolved the private matter and it was not AMD's performance or problems.

I think over $200/share is more realistic than ever within two years. $40B revenue is probably hard to do in two years.

NVDA was more than interesting to me. I had a massive amount of shares when it was $12, then when it doubled, I sold all.

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To: neolib who wrote (42327)8/2/2021 4:12:50 PM
From: Kelvin C.P. Wang
of 45340
 
500B cap is good for me. One year from now it would be a lot more clear on that front.

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To: neolib who wrote (42327)8/2/2021 4:55:11 PM
From: Joe NYC
of 45340
 
The TAM is there. AMD TAM with Xilinx will be much greater than NVidia. But the gains of market share are always challenging.

I think AMD has a chance to turn the tide against NVDA, the same way AMD did against Intel.. RDNA 2 demonstrated that AMD can match them, and RDNA 3 has a potential to meaningfully surpass NVDA on client side of things.

But the pile-up on on TSMC 5nm will make it difficult to gain on NViidia. Nvidia is apparently moving to TSMC 5nm with both of their next gen design, client and datacenter...

I am seriously hoping that Zen 3, new stepping will give it a lot of extra life. Years of extra life. Hopefully, it is going to be 6nm and can accept many layers of L3.

Because bypassing a bottleneck in one dimension by going full blast in a different dimension is similar unconventional thinking that helped AMD to become the technology leader in server market.

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