SI
SI
discoversearch

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor.  We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community.  If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

   Technology StocksAMD, ARMH, INTC, NVDA


Previous 10 Next 10 
To: Joe NYC who wrote (42317)8/2/2021 2:13:32 PM
From: neolib
of 43819
 
I was looking at that today. After a similar pattern to AMD for the preceding three days, XLNX is diverging again today.

Share KeepReplyMark as Last Read


To: Kelvin C.P. Wang who wrote (42314)8/2/2021 2:16:32 PM
From: neolib
of 43819
 
Look at it this way: With the XLNX purchase AMD will be running around 5.5B/Qtr less than 1/3 of INTC, yet the marketcap of AMD right now, assuming the XLNX purchase, is about 165B vs INTC at 218B or so. We have already hit pie in the sky!

Share KeepReplyMark as Last ReadRead Replies (2)


To: neolib who wrote (42319)8/2/2021 2:25:21 PM
From: Joe NYC
of 43819
 
Pat Gelsinger is getting good reception, in general, but INTC is getting no respect on Wall Street.

Share KeepReplyMark as Last Read


From: Joe NYC8/2/2021 2:48:16 PM
of 43819
 
Something seriously wrong with the Steam survey:

"Windows 7 64-bit users increased 2.91% in June and 3.51% in July. Last month also saw Linux systems reach 1% for the first time in years."

Latest Steam survey shows AMD rebounding, an excellent month for Ampere, and a Windows 7 resurgence | TechSpot

Share KeepReplyMark as Last Read


To: Joe NYC who wrote (42316)8/2/2021 2:55:56 PM
From: Kelvin C.P. Wang
of 43819
 
What is your thinking about INTC using TSMC 3nm? Possible? I think it is fake news. Why would TSMC empower a strong and direct competitor, even with lots of cash that TSMC does not need, but???

Share KeepReplyMark as Last ReadRead Replies (1)


To: neolib who wrote (42319)8/2/2021 2:58:42 PM
From: Kelvin C.P. Wang
of 43819
 
Vattila showed specific levels of predictions with Pie-in-the-Sky scenario as the highest at well over $300/share, taking over majority of x86 market share. I made up the numbers per my recollection. He had several emails on the predictions.

Share KeepReplyMark as Last ReadRead Replies (2)


To: Kelvin C.P. Wang who wrote (42322)8/2/2021 3:02:19 PM
From: Joe NYC
of 43819
 
My thinking now is that the scale of this is likely much smaller that the Nikei article implied.

Why would TSMC empower a strong and direct competitor, even with lots of cash that TSMC does not need, but???
Yes. TSMC management are not fools.

There are some interesting quotes from the past, that spell out TSMC thinking about Intel. That Intel is the biggest competitor of TSMC and TSMC strategy is to enable their own customers to compete effectively against Intel.

Share KeepReplyMark as Last Read


To: Kelvin C.P. Wang who wrote (42323)8/2/2021 3:09:20 PM
From: Joe NYC
of 43819
 
Vattila showed specific levels of predictions with Pie-in-the-Sky scenario as the highest at well over $300/share, taking over majority of x86 market share. I made up the numbers per my recollection. He had several emails on the predictions.
In theory, AMD could have sold 8 client chips for single server chip (substrate permitting). And client has grown way above anyone's expectations.

AMD found a sound strategy, in light of component shortages and capacity constraints. That client PC growth potential was less lucrative than the server potential.

I think that AMD client products are competitive and deserve greater market share, when the shortages ease.

Both on CPU and GPU sides.

Share KeepReplyMark as Last Read


To: Kelvin C.P. Wang who wrote (42314)8/2/2021 3:30:52 PM
From: Vattila
of 43819
 
That was a private matter that had nothing to do with AMD and my view of their prospects. The matter was resolved without me having to sell.

At the time I said I thought Lisa Su had more in the tank, which has proven to be right.

For my AMD scenarios, see my latest post on that below. Note that these are not predictions. Instead it is an attempt to divide all possible outcomes into 5 scenarios and then quantify them by assigning a probable value range for revenue, CAGR, GM, EPS, market capitalisation, and stock price, as well as a likelihood for each scenario to pan out in reality. You can follow links to replied-to messages for the history of these scenarios (or search the forum subject for "prospects" or "precarious").

Message 33320663

PS. Interestingly, my pie-in-the-sky scenario is just peanuts in terms of market capitalisation when you look at Nvidia. I find it hard to understand the extent of Nvidia's mindshare in the market.

Share KeepReplyMark as Last ReadRead Replies (2)


To: Kelvin C.P. Wang who wrote (42323)8/2/2021 3:57:03 PM
From: neolib
of 43819
 
Yeah, I've seen them (and appreciate his efforts), just saying that AMD is now already valued as a premier semi company, with a price that matches. NVDA is still is the stratosphere however.

Here are the top USA Semi Cos:

INTC: 218B/18.7B

MU: 87B/6.6B

QCOM: 167B/6.3B
AVGO: 199B/5.5B
NVDA: 492B/5.4B
TXN: 176B/4.6B
AMD/XLNX: 165B/5.4B

We have arrived, that should be clear. AMD is already a premier "trusted supplier" or whatever terms he was using in those tables, and its valued that way. NVDA is only the real standout for being over valued in the list above, and you could say INTC is the standout for being undervalued. AMD fits nicely with the rest of the back. Going forward, the upside for AMD is if they can continue to grab marketshare from INTC and NVDA at a fast pace. I could like a 500B marketcap for AMD!

Share KeepReplyMark as Last ReadRead Replies (2)
Previous 10 Next 10