| To: Kelvin C.P. Wang who wrote (42315) | 8/2/2021 3:09:20 PM | | From: Joe NYC | | | | Vattila showed specific levels of predictions with Pie-in-the-Sky scenario as the highest at well over $300/share, taking over majority of x86 market share. I made up the numbers per my recollection. He had several emails on the predictions. In theory, AMD could have sold 8 client chips for single server chip (substrate permitting). And client has grown way above anyone's expectations.
AMD found a sound strategy, in light of component shortages and capacity constraints. That client PC growth potential was less lucrative than the server potential.
I think that AMD client products are competitive and deserve greater market share, when the shortages ease.
Both on CPU and GPU sides. |
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| To: Kelvin C.P. Wang who wrote (42306) | 8/2/2021 3:30:52 PM | | From: Vattila | | | | That was a private matter that had nothing to do with AMD and my view of their prospects. The matter was resolved without me having to sell.
At the time I said I thought Lisa Su had more in the tank, which has proven to be right.
For my AMD scenarios, see my latest post on that below. Note that these are not predictions. Instead it is an attempt to divide all possible outcomes into 5 scenarios and then quantify them by assigning a probable value range for revenue, CAGR, GM, EPS, market capitalisation, and stock price, as well as a likelihood for each scenario to pan out in reality. You can follow links to replied-to messages for the history of these scenarios (or search the forum subject for "prospects" or "precarious").
Message 33320663
PS. Interestingly, my pie-in-the-sky scenario is just peanuts in terms of market capitalisation when you look at Nvidia. I find it hard to understand the extent of Nvidia's mindshare in the market. |
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| To: Kelvin C.P. Wang who wrote (42315) | 8/2/2021 3:57:03 PM | | From: neolib | | | | Yeah, I've seen them (and appreciate his efforts), just saying that AMD is now already valued as a premier semi company, with a price that matches. NVDA is still is the stratosphere however.
Here are the top USA Semi Cos:
INTC: 218B/18.7B
MU: 87B/6.6B
QCOM: 167B/6.3B
AVGO: 199B/5.5B
NVDA: 492B/5.4B
TXN: 176B/4.6B
AMD/XLNX: 165B/5.4B
We have arrived, that should be clear. AMD is already a premier "trusted supplier" or whatever terms he was using in those tables, and its valued that way. NVDA is only the real standout for being over valued in the list above, and you could say INTC is the standout for being undervalued. AMD fits nicely with the rest of the back. Going forward, the upside for AMD is if they can continue to grab marketshare from INTC and NVDA at a fast pace. I could like a 500B marketcap for AMD! |
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| To: Vattila who wrote (42318) | 8/2/2021 4:08:08 PM | | From: Kelvin C.P. Wang | | | | I am glad you resolved the private matter and it was not AMD's performance or problems.
I think over $200/share is more realistic than ever within two years. $40B revenue is probably hard to do in two years.
NVDA was more than interesting to me. I had a massive amount of shares when it was $12, then when it doubled, I sold all. |
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| To: neolib who wrote (42319) | 8/2/2021 4:55:11 PM | | From: Joe NYC | | | | The TAM is there. AMD TAM with Xilinx will be much greater than NVidia. But the gains of market share are always challenging.
I think AMD has a chance to turn the tide against NVDA, the same way AMD did against Intel.. RDNA 2 demonstrated that AMD can match them, and RDNA 3 has a potential to meaningfully surpass NVDA on client side of things.
But the pile-up on on TSMC 5nm will make it difficult to gain on NViidia. Nvidia is apparently moving to TSMC 5nm with both of their next gen design, client and datacenter...
I am seriously hoping that Zen 3, new stepping will give it a lot of extra life. Years of extra life. Hopefully, it is going to be 6nm and can accept many layers of L3.
Because bypassing a bottleneck in one dimension by going full blast in a different dimension is similar unconventional thinking that helped AMD to become the technology leader in server market. |
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| To: FJB who wrote (42323) | 8/2/2021 5:18:55 PM | | From: Joe NYC | | | | It is a threat, but I think it is more of a threat to Intel with 80% market share and going down then AMD with 20% and going up.
Some smart people have concluded that the instruction set, and overhead of x86 is becoming trivial in terms of hardware needed for execution, in big cores.
I think the bigger threat is not pure Arm vendors selling Arm into server space, even client space. The bigger threat are vertical integrators, like Apple or AWS. |
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| To: Vattila who wrote (42318) | 8/2/2021 5:31:06 PM | | From: neolib | | | | I find it hard to understand the extent of Nvidia's mindshare in the market.
If they own ARM and AI, it would be justified. Owning ARM will help them continue to own AI, as I assume Nvidia AI tech will become the standard ARM AI IP. |
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