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   Technology StocksAMD, ARMH, INTC, NVDA


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To: Vattila who wrote (42313)8/2/2021 12:17:27 PM
From: Kelvin C.P. Wang
of 44243
 
Hi, Vattila,

Sometime ago (maybe one year?) you posted about selling off your AMD shares and moving on. Within a day or two, you changed your mind and here we are.

I am curious about your rational then (thought process on the decisions). I am increasingly looking forward to the "pie-in-the-sky scenario" (your most optimistic prediction) within two-year from now.

Thanks!

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To: Vattila who wrote (42313)8/2/2021 1:35:26 PM
From: neolib
of 44243
 
There is a two year downward trend in that data (make allowance for seasonality),while the chart starts in Apr 2020 when CV-19 was starting to spike PC purchases, it would have been nice to seem further back too. It seems hard to argue in July 2021 that component issues are the cause. Availability in general seems to be improving, and for GPUs, the miners getting clobbered in China seems to be helping too. Despite what Pat at Intel thinks, mobile is still the gadget of choice for most people, they just needed an upgrade on the home PC thanks to CV. I'm not so sure there will be continued growth in PCs as strong as was seen over the last year. Unless CV keeps chugging along...

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To: Kelvin C.P. Wang who wrote (42314)8/2/2021 2:07:01 PM
From: Joe NYC
of 44243
 
Hi Kevin,

Sometime ago (maybe one year?) you posted about selling off your AMD shares and moving on. Within a day or two, you changed your mind
I am pretty sure everybody considered it at one point or another. I was quite down when the news of Intel on TSMC 3nm came out.

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To: neolib who wrote (42315)8/2/2021 2:12:18 PM
From: Joe NYC
of 44243
 
The discount on XLINX is > 20% now...

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To: Joe NYC who wrote (42317)8/2/2021 2:13:32 PM
From: neolib
of 44243
 
I was looking at that today. After a similar pattern to AMD for the preceding three days, XLNX is diverging again today.

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To: Kelvin C.P. Wang who wrote (42314)8/2/2021 2:16:32 PM
From: neolib
of 44243
 
Look at it this way: With the XLNX purchase AMD will be running around 5.5B/Qtr less than 1/3 of INTC, yet the marketcap of AMD right now, assuming the XLNX purchase, is about 165B vs INTC at 218B or so. We have already hit pie in the sky!

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To: neolib who wrote (42319)8/2/2021 2:25:21 PM
From: Joe NYC
of 44243
 
Pat Gelsinger is getting good reception, in general, but INTC is getting no respect on Wall Street.

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From: Joe NYC8/2/2021 2:48:16 PM
of 44243
 
Something seriously wrong with the Steam survey:

"Windows 7 64-bit users increased 2.91% in June and 3.51% in July. Last month also saw Linux systems reach 1% for the first time in years."

Latest Steam survey shows AMD rebounding, an excellent month for Ampere, and a Windows 7 resurgence | TechSpot

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To: Joe NYC who wrote (42316)8/2/2021 2:55:56 PM
From: Kelvin C.P. Wang
of 44243
 
What is your thinking about INTC using TSMC 3nm? Possible? I think it is fake news. Why would TSMC empower a strong and direct competitor, even with lots of cash that TSMC does not need, but???

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To: neolib who wrote (42319)8/2/2021 2:58:42 PM
From: Kelvin C.P. Wang
of 44243
 
Vattila showed specific levels of predictions with Pie-in-the-Sky scenario as the highest at well over $300/share, taking over majority of x86 market share. I made up the numbers per my recollection. He had several emails on the predictions.

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