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   Technology StocksAMD, ARMH, INTC, NVDA


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From: Vattila8/2/2021 10:54:20 AM
of 43816
 
Here is Hot Chips' program later this month. Lots of cool stuff, including AI, packaging and processor cores:

2:30PM-3:30PMTechnology Provider: Intel packaging technologies for chiplets and 3DRavi Mahajan and Sandeep Sane, Intel
3:30PM-4:30PMTechnology Provider: TSMC packaging technologies for chiplets and 3DDoug Yu, TSMC
4:30PM-4:45PMBreak (15 minutes)
4:45PM-5:30PMCase Study: Intel products built with 2.5D and 3D packagingRavi Mahajan and Sandeep Sane, Intel
5:30PM-6:15PMCase Study: AMD products built with 3D packagingRaja Swaminathan, AMD


9:00AM-11:00AMCPUs
Intel Alder Lake CPU ArchitecturesEfraim Rotem, Intel
AMD Next Generation “Zen 3” CoreMark Evers, AMD
The >5GHz next generation IBM Z processor chipChristian Jacobi, IBM
Next-Gen Intel Xeon CPU - Sapphire RapidsArijit Biswas and Sailesh Kottapalli, Intel


hotchips.org

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To: neolib who wrote (42309)8/2/2021 11:06:33 AM
From: Vattila
of 43816
 
I have a hard time seeing the correlation with the pandemic at MindFactory. Intel's volume follows traditional seasonal patterns, while being totally dominated by AMD sales. AMD CPUs declined until September last year, at which point volume had an uptick, as Nvidia released the 3000-series of GPU cards, then exploded in November after the release of "Vermeer" based on "Zen 3". Then there has been steady decline in the context of relentless reports about tight supply and poor availability, until the abnormal peak in April, when suddenly supply of AMD's top SKUs had a local peak.

Now, Lisa Su is warning about flat PC demand in the second half, due to shortages in part of the supporting component supply chain. Sounds to me that AMD is prioritising the growth in other markets, with continuing tight supply to the DIY market, and that the decline in sales volume at MindFactory is not indicative of falling demand.

I would be surprised if demand for "Vermeer" in the DIY space is now as low as the declining volume at MindFactory suggests. However, my intuition may be wrong. Perhaps CPU availability now is good, and the problem is the lack of GPU availability to go into PC builds, hence putting a damper on CPU demand.

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To: Vattila who wrote (42313)8/2/2021 12:17:27 PM
From: Kelvin C.P. Wang
of 43816
 
Hi, Vattila,

Sometime ago (maybe one year?) you posted about selling off your AMD shares and moving on. Within a day or two, you changed your mind and here we are.

I am curious about your rational then (thought process on the decisions). I am increasingly looking forward to the "pie-in-the-sky scenario" (your most optimistic prediction) within two-year from now.

Thanks!

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To: Vattila who wrote (42313)8/2/2021 1:35:26 PM
From: neolib
of 43816
 
There is a two year downward trend in that data (make allowance for seasonality),while the chart starts in Apr 2020 when CV-19 was starting to spike PC purchases, it would have been nice to seem further back too. It seems hard to argue in July 2021 that component issues are the cause. Availability in general seems to be improving, and for GPUs, the miners getting clobbered in China seems to be helping too. Despite what Pat at Intel thinks, mobile is still the gadget of choice for most people, they just needed an upgrade on the home PC thanks to CV. I'm not so sure there will be continued growth in PCs as strong as was seen over the last year. Unless CV keeps chugging along...

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To: Kelvin C.P. Wang who wrote (42314)8/2/2021 2:07:01 PM
From: Joe NYC
of 43816
 
Hi Kevin,

Sometime ago (maybe one year?) you posted about selling off your AMD shares and moving on. Within a day or two, you changed your mind
I am pretty sure everybody considered it at one point or another. I was quite down when the news of Intel on TSMC 3nm came out.

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To: neolib who wrote (42315)8/2/2021 2:12:18 PM
From: Joe NYC
of 43816
 
The discount on XLINX is > 20% now...

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To: Joe NYC who wrote (42317)8/2/2021 2:13:32 PM
From: neolib
of 43816
 
I was looking at that today. After a similar pattern to AMD for the preceding three days, XLNX is diverging again today.

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To: Kelvin C.P. Wang who wrote (42314)8/2/2021 2:16:32 PM
From: neolib
of 43816
 
Look at it this way: With the XLNX purchase AMD will be running around 5.5B/Qtr less than 1/3 of INTC, yet the marketcap of AMD right now, assuming the XLNX purchase, is about 165B vs INTC at 218B or so. We have already hit pie in the sky!

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To: neolib who wrote (42319)8/2/2021 2:25:21 PM
From: Joe NYC
of 43816
 
Pat Gelsinger is getting good reception, in general, but INTC is getting no respect on Wall Street.

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From: Joe NYC8/2/2021 2:48:16 PM
of 43816
 
Something seriously wrong with the Steam survey:

"Windows 7 64-bit users increased 2.91% in June and 3.51% in July. Last month also saw Linux systems reach 1% for the first time in years."

Latest Steam survey shows AMD rebounding, an excellent month for Ampere, and a Windows 7 resurgence | TechSpot

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