| To: Joe NYC who wrote (42296) | 8/1/2021 4:18:18 AM | | From: Vattila | | | | > 20% + CAGR [for HPC] for next 4 years to 2025
Wouldn't you know it — 20% CAGR is exactly AMD's financial model for long-term revenue growth, and coincidentally around the annual revenue growth Xilinx achieved on their own last quarter. With the current demand and momentum, I bet they will outperform that by a mile for the next couple of years, at least until the competition gets harder, out around 2023 maybe, if Intel product designers do a good job and is able to take advantage of leading edge process, or ARM server and client PC products see rapid acceptance. Then, hopefully, AMD+Xilinx will still remain competitive enough to grow with the industry, at that 20% CAGR number, perhaps.
That seems a pretty modest and realistic expectation as things look today.
But, perhaps AI keeps growing exponentially, which if AMD+Xilinx gets a nice foothold — a reasonable expectation, I think, judging by current super-computer wins and software drive towards open non-proprietary standards — may mean sustained growth for years to come, well beyond their current financial model.
Then 3-5 years down the line, we'll be gearing up for the next console cycle, in which the AMD semi-custom division, based on past successes, is guaranteed to play a central role, if not continue to dominate. At that point, mainstream adoption of raytracing and virtual reality may drive demand for much higher processing performance and efficiency. With the industry's push towards high framerate gaming monitors, driven by PCs and consoles with ultra low input latency, there is little chance that cloud gaming will eradicate gaming devices. However, casual gaming in the cloud may grow the gaming space as a whole.
At that point AMD+Xilinx should play a big role as a key player in the cloud infrastructure for all things HPC, from the central server cabinets to all the devices at the edge, processing ever more data.
Then there is the great opportunity to partake in the electrification of the automobile, as well as in the infrastructure for the clean power industry (design, simulation, control systems, etc.). And there is the management of the effects of climate change (research, monitoring and mitigation). And then there is automation and robotics on the rise.
So many opportunities for high-performance computing going forward, it is mind-boggling. |
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| To: Vattila who wrote (41721) | 8/1/2021 7:11:25 AM | | From: Vattila | | | | Ingebor has just released his latest numbers from MindFactory.
July was another modest month at MindFactory, with slight share loss for AMD, in the lower-end unit sales, mostly. Revenue share is holding up well, though. Noteworthy, 68% of AMD's unit sales is on the latest generation ("Vermeer"), while Intel's latest generation ("Rocket Lake") only constitutes 34% of their unit sales. There is now a remarkable reversion of market position, with AMD dominating in the high end, and Intel picking up the low end. This is reflected in the ASP, with a cross-over in AMD's favour since November, around the launch of "Vermeer".
Looking at the local peak in May, it appears there since is unsatisfied demand for AMD's top SKU, the 5950X, but I haven't looked at its availability closely. Perhaps all the pent up demand was satisfied in May. If not, and availability indeed is low, I guess AMD is prioritising the server market with the top-binning 8-core CCDs. Anyway, if AMD could get back to May unit numbers for the top SKUs, they could easily double current revenue at MindFactory.
Mindfactory Report July 2021 - Imgur |
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| To: Vattila who wrote (42297) | 8/1/2021 9:20:18 AM | | From: Joe NYC | | | | It could be that the reason Lisa is confident AMD can meet its goals independent of how well the client PCs perform is because she may have enough visibility and maybe even firm orders from the cloud players.
In the near term, we just need more winds for CDNA2, so that AMD starts challenging NVDA more seriously in this area.
That UK Met office win was nice, but it would have been 10x nicer if it involved AMD Instinct.
Xilinx will be the wild card for AMD... |
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| From: neolib | 8/1/2021 9:53:21 PM | | | | | | Here is a neat sequence of photos showing how stacked nano-sheet transistors are patterned. I had wondered how this was done, and its the obvious way I guess, they start with an epitaxy stack of the layers across the entire chip, which will be nice an planar, and then etch down into it to isolate the needed gates:
from here:
semiengineering.com
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| To: neolib who wrote (42301) | 8/2/2021 10:52:59 AM | | From: rzborusa | | | | | Yep, moratorium on evictions plus stimulus checks put money in the hands of people that needed a cheap laptop or game box to work/play from home. It the later, they probably got better value. |
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| From: Vattila | 8/2/2021 10:54:20 AM | | | | | | Here is Hot Chips' program later this month. Lots of cool stuff, including AI, packaging and processor cores:
| 2:30PM-3:30PM | Technology Provider: Intel packaging technologies for chiplets and 3D | Ravi Mahajan and Sandeep Sane, Intel | | 3:30PM-4:30PM | Technology Provider: TSMC packaging technologies for chiplets and 3D | Doug Yu, TSMC | | 4:30PM-4:45PM | Break (15 minutes) | | | 4:45PM-5:30PM | Case Study: Intel products built with 2.5D and 3D packaging | Ravi Mahajan and Sandeep Sane, Intel | | 5:30PM-6:15PM | Case Study: AMD products built with 3D packaging | Raja Swaminathan, AMD |
| 9:00AM-11:00AM | CPUs | | | | Intel Alder Lake CPU Architectures | Efraim Rotem, Intel | | | AMD Next Generation “Zen 3” Core | Mark Evers, AMD | | | The >5GHz next generation IBM Z processor chip | Christian Jacobi, IBM | | | Next-Gen Intel Xeon CPU - Sapphire Rapids | Arijit Biswas and Sailesh Kottapalli, Intel |
hotchips.org |
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| To: neolib who wrote (42301) | 8/2/2021 11:06:33 AM | | From: Vattila | | | | I have a hard time seeing the correlation with the pandemic at MindFactory. Intel's volume follows traditional seasonal patterns, while being totally dominated by AMD sales. AMD CPUs declined until September last year, at which point volume had an uptick, as Nvidia released the 3000-series of GPU cards, then exploded in November after the release of "Vermeer" based on "Zen 3". Then there has been steady decline in the context of relentless reports about tight supply and poor availability, until the abnormal peak in April, when suddenly supply of AMD's top SKUs had a local peak.
Now, Lisa Su is warning about flat PC demand in the second half, due to shortages in part of the supporting component supply chain. Sounds to me that AMD is prioritising the growth in other markets, with continuing tight supply to the DIY market, and that the decline in sales volume at MindFactory is not indicative of falling demand.
I would be surprised if demand for "Vermeer" in the DIY space is now as low as the declining volume at MindFactory suggests. However, my intuition may be wrong. Perhaps CPU availability now is good, and the problem is the lack of GPU availability to go into PC builds, hence putting a damper on CPU demand. |
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| To: Vattila who wrote (42305) | 8/2/2021 12:17:27 PM | | From: Kelvin C.P. Wang | | | | Hi, Vattila,
Sometime ago (maybe one year?) you posted about selling off your AMD shares and moving on. Within a day or two, you changed your mind and here we are.
I am curious about your rational then (thought process on the decisions). I am increasingly looking forward to the "pie-in-the-sky scenario" (your most optimistic prediction) within two-year from now.
Thanks! |
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