To: captainfreedom2 who wrote (32618) | 9/15/2019 5:51:09 PM | From: neolib | | | Epyc sales did not increase QoQ in Q1. That is something we have discussed a number of times here. From the Q1 earnings press release, under segment performance:
Enterprise, Embedded and Semi-Custom segment revenue was $441 million, down 17 percent year-over-year and up 2 percent sequentially. The year-over-year revenue decrease was primarily due to lower semi-custom product revenue, partially offset by higher server sales. The quarter-over-quarter increase was primarily driven by higher semi-custom revenue.
There was a 2% QoQ increase in EESC in Q1 vs Q4, and that increase per the above is attributed to higher semi-custom revenue. Any actual increase in Epyc sales if there was some, would have been negligible.
Wrt to your quote from the CC, that quote specifically mentions channel sales, which would pertain to smaller enterprise type end markets. AMD has repeatedly stated that current server sales are driven by the large cloud providers, those are clients AMD is working directly with, they don't buy through the channel. So that comment would have been referenced to the fact that perhaps they were seeing some pickup in the much smaller channel sales of Epyc, which in the long run is good, but its not a very large section of their sales currently.
However, I should note that if the overall market grew some, than Mercury could show AMD's share dropping 0.3% even though AMD might have increased sales too. Just not as fast as the market.
FWIW, the only real datapoint we have from AMD is that 4Q18 Epyc sales were about $115M and Lisa would later state that 1Q19 was about the same. We know 2Q19 has grown a little, but I would eyeball no more than to $140M given the % shifts they have hinted at on the console side. And the TAM that they consider their server market to be is about 20M sockets/year. AMD's 4Q18 at $115M was not really 5% of that TAM, which would be about 250K/qtr. If it were, then their ASP was only $460 or so. In reality, their ASP is likely more like $780 or so, and their volumes would then be 150K so more like 3%. |
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