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   Technology StocksAMD, ARMH, INTC, NVDA

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From: neolib6/13/2019 6:30:19 PM
of 38175
Here is a rumor of 64-core Threadripper in 4Q19, but then the idiot author screws the pooch with this nonsense:

Now my source did not mention a new socket, so as far as I know, this should be socket compatible with the existing TR4 motherboards and only a bios update should be needed if you already own one. What I don’t know right now is whether this is a 14nm part or a 7nm part. Conventional wisdom would dictate that this is a 14nm part trickling down from their server space, but who knows, maybe the company will surprise all of us?

so he clearly ain't too bright...

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To: neolib who wrote (30696)6/13/2019 6:41:37 PM
From: combjelly
of 38175
Conventional wisdom?

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To: neolib who wrote (30696)6/13/2019 8:23:28 PM
From: Vattila
of 38175
> so he clearly ain't too bright...

LOL. Have mercy. It must be the Intel calamity effect — their stretched-out era of 14nm evolution— that is clouding the issue. To just suggest that 14nm last-generation products could achieve a doubling of core-count in the same socket shows a profound lack of understanding of AMD's products and roadmap.

Now, regarding CES he says:

"My source was pretty clear on the timeline and said AMD plans to introduce this before the year is over because they have something else planned for CES next year."

That sounds promising. Hopefully, AMD's focus at CES will be on 7nm APU "Renoir", taking on the 10nm Intel competition in notebooks.

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From: neolib6/14/2019 8:36:32 AM
of 38175
AMD SC/HPC event early next week:

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To: Doug M. who wrote (30694)6/14/2019 9:56:01 AM
From: Jamie153
of 38175
I pulled up NVDAs analyst recommendations after bad numbers came out last Sept/Oct. to see how good they were. Today, they say Broadcom will do let's check their record as NVDA dropped by half.

As you can see, they really have no idea what they're talking about (most of us knew this a long time ago but it's worth seeing if things are better).

I highlighted the downgrades. Recall that in a little over a month the stock was cut by half.

NVDA (Yahoo Finance)

ReiteratesRBC Capital: Outperform to Outperform12/27/2018
MaintainsRBC Capital: Outperform to Outperform12/12/2018
InitiatedCredit Suisse: to Outperform11/26/2018
DowngradeExane BNP Paribas: Neutral to Underperform11/20/2018
MaintainsWells Fargo: Outperform to Outperform11/16/2018
DowngradeGoldman Sachs: Conviction Buy to Buy11/16/2018
MaintainsNomura: Neutral to Neutral11/16/2018
MaintainsDeutsche Bank: Hold to Hold11/16/2018
MaintainsBMO Capital: Market Perform to Market Perform11/16/2018
MaintainsCitigroup: Buy to Buy11/16/2018
MaintainsRaymond James: Outperform to Outperform11/16/2018
MaintainsMizuho: Buy to Buy11/16/2018
MaintainsJefferies: Buy to Buy11/16/2018
MaintainsBarclays: Overweight to Overweight11/16/2018
DowngradeB. Riley FBR: Buy to Neutral11/16/2018
UpgradeSusquehanna: Neutral to Positive11/13/2018
MaintainsB. Riley FBR: Buy to Buy11/13/2018
MaintainsCitigroup: Buy to Buy11/12/2018
MaintainsMorgan Stanley: Overweight to Overweight11/8/2018
UpgradeJP Morgan: Neutral to Overweight10/30/2018
InitiatedKeyBanc: to Sector Weight9/25/201

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To: Jamie153 who wrote (30700)6/14/2019 10:37:50 AM
From: neolib
of 38175
My concern since back in Jan on AMD has been the 2H19 reboot they have projected, and the rest of the semis more or less jumped on the same bandwaggon. Now Broadcom is deflating that one a bit.

Its more complex for AMD, because 2H19 for AMD has largely been more about taking share with more competitive products vs what the overall semi market is doing. But the overall market sets the tone, and AMD is a high beta stock. The Q2 report and guidance for Q3/Q4 is going to be crucial for AMD. By the time the report is given, which will be late July, AMD will be well into shipping the 7nm parts, and likely will have shipped a lot of server parts to, even though we won't have the "official" launch perhaps yet of those parts. So if Q3 is not guided up significantly, then ouch!

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To: neolib who wrote (30701)6/14/2019 12:02:49 PM
From: Jamie153
of 38175
Late July/early Aug has a lot of companies reporting. CDNS, AMD, Qcom, Apple, Intel, etc.

The two big ones that reported so far are NVDA and Broadcom and both were iffy at best.

MU is coming up June 25th.

OLED is up over 80% so far this year and it's in early August (I think).

I like XLNX. Up over 50% over the last year and up 24% YTD. Down 3 today.

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To: Jamie153 who wrote (30702)6/14/2019 12:26:27 PM
From: neolib
of 38175
XLNX is getting some of the 5G love, and of course they should have some traction in AI/ML

I really wish that XLNX and AMD would get more in bed on the AI/ML side, as AMD has the perfect architecture these days with chiplets to make custom server CPUs with XLNX die copackaged, and both are at TSMC. It would be a nice counterpoint to Intel's Altera unit.

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From: neolib6/14/2019 1:32:15 PM
of 38175
This article looks at Nvidia's lock on the data center accelerator market share vs Intel's CPU share in the same:

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To: neolib who wrote (30703)6/14/2019 2:31:18 PM
of 38175
neo, Re: AMD has the perfect architecture these days with chiplets to make custom server CPUs>

IMO the best reason for chiplets is to get heat out of the area of the CPU.

On those pictures from a week or so ago did you notice the reflection of the photographers face on one CPU? In another picture there was a reflection of a hand with middle finger extended.

I'd guess that kind of milling and polishing to get the fit of the cooler across the CPU and the auxiliary chips does not come cheap. It looked like mirror finish to me.

Mirrors and window glass are "Finished" by floating on liquid Tin. That won't work for stuff with solder which melts at lots lower temperatures.

It'll get figured out, but I doubt mirror finishes and thick coatings of silver in grease will be a long time solution.

MCMs just move the heat problem around. (as far as I can fathom, else MOBOs could do the job. ) The next real problem(IMO) is Multi chip real coolers.

Still in for around 6K shares, down from 10,


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