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   Non-TechThe Brazil Board

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From: elmatador12/15/2020 2:13:46 AM
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Brazil eyes GDP per capita growth of 37% over next decade

According to the “Federal Development Strategy”... that is the upper end of the scale resulting from a series of “transformative” reforms and educational advances over 2021-2031 that would deliver average annual GDP growth of 3.5%.

BRASILIA (Reuters) - Brazil’s government on Tuesday outlined a long-term roadmap for the economy, based on three scenarios of economic and fiscal reforms that could lift gross domestic product per capita by as much as 37% over the next decade.

According to the “Federal Development Strategy” in the Official Gazette, that is the upper end of the scale resulting from a series of “transformative” reforms and educational advances over 2021-2031 that would deliver average annual GDP growth of 3.5%.

This would lift Brazil’s GDP per capita in U.S. dollars above that of other emerging nations such as Argentina, Poland and Croatia by 2031, and closer to Chile and Hungary, countries ranked highly in the Human Development Index.

Brazil will go into next year with a record debt and deficit around 95% and 12% of GDP, respectively, due to huge emergency expenditure this year to tackle the COVID-19 pandemic.

“Macroeconomic stability, continuing the long-term fiscal adjustment agenda and monetary policy balance, are necessary conditions for a return to sustained growth,” the government said in the decree.

According to the strategy plan, signed off by President Jair Bolsonaro and Economy Minister Paulo Guedes, the base case is for an accumulated rise in GDP per capita of 19.1% over the next decade, on annual average GDP growth of 2.2%.

After the financial damage wrought by COVID-19, “If the necessary reforms are not implemented, the likelihood of a fiscal crisis and economic growth crisis in the coming years will increase significantly,” the plan said.

The third and most bearish scenario of no fiscal adjustment or market-friendly reforms would crash the economy and public finances. “For obvious reasons, it serves no purpose to include forecasts in this scenario,” the plan said

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From: elmatador12/15/2020 9:15:19 AM
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Vale And Tesla: The Nickel Picture

Striking a deal with EV manufacturers individually to supply nickel, such as to Tesla, could prove mutually beneficial to both parties.

Vale aims to average 200kt in volume of nickel through 2021, increasing that to 220kt in volume, with ~60% likely in class 1 nickel.

Vale could see over half a billion USD in revenues from nickel supplied to EV in a few years' time.
Dec. 14, 2020 4:28 PM ET Vale S.A. (VALE)TSLA 8

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From: elmatador12/17/2020 12:35:13 AM
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Which country flatenned the curve?

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From: elmatador12/21/2020 1:35:39 AM
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China's Meat Production peaked in 2014
And it has been getting lower ever since
Good news for Brazil

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From: elmatador12/21/2020 1:46:26 AM
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The growth of meat imports (Beef and Pork) has been phenomenal.

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To: Glenn Petersen who wrote (2090)1/2/2021 10:39:59 PM
From: elmatador
1 Recommendation   of 2171
And according to The Banker the central banker of the year 2020 is?

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To: kidl who wrote (2120)1/6/2021 12:08:25 AM
From: elmatador
   of 2171
Can Anything Stop Brazil’s Massive Oil Boom?

By Matthew Smith - Dec 29, 2020, 12:00 PM CST

With Brent trading at $51 per barrel and Lula selling for $53 a barrel, there is considerable incentive for Petrobras to bolster production from those fields. Aside from strong demand from Asia refiners for Brazil’s pre-salt crude oil, stronger than expected domestic fuel demand is also driving the Latin American country’s massive offshore oil boom.

The COVID-19 pandemic had a sharp impact on oil prices, creating considerable uncertainty over the outlook for energy demand around the globe. The ongoing global crude oil supply glut and claims that peak oil demand could occur sooner than anticipated are also weighing on energy prices. Those headwinds have done little to impede Brazil’s massive oil boom. Growing demand for lighter sweeter crude oil grades from Asia, coupled with stronger than expected domestic demand for gasoline are buoying Brazil’s oil industry. China’s insatiable demand for lighter sweeter crude oil grades, sparked by the introduction of IMO2020 on 1 January 2020 which significantly limits the sulfur content of maritime fuels, is an important driver of Brazil’s offshore oil boom. For November 2020, China, the world’s second-largest economy, imported on average just over 11 million barrels of crude oil daily, representing a 10.1% increase over the previous month, although it was still almost 1% lower than a year earlier. Brazil has become a key supplier of crude oil for Asian refiners. By the end of October 2020, Latin America’s largest oil producer had become the third-largest supplier of petroleum to China. This was because of the rapidly growing popularity of its sweet medium grade Búzios and Lula crudes, which because of their low sulfur content are cheaper and easier to refine into IMO2020 compliant fuels. The introduction of IMO2020 is having a notable effect on demand and pricing for low sulfur content medium and light crude oil grades, with maritime fuel expected to grow by almost 1% this year from 2019 when it was a $149 billion market that accounted for around 5% of crude oil consumed globally. Seaborne trade accounts for around 90% of total world trade volumes, highlighting its importance to the functioning of the global economy. This explains why IMO2020 had such a significant effect on demand for sweeter crude oil varieties and was responsible for causing Brazil’s Búzios and Lula grades to sell at a premium to the international Brent benchmark price. According to data Lula is trading at a 5% or $2.78 per barrel premium to Brent. While prices are not readily available for Búzios, according to Petrobras it sells at a premium to Brent in Asia.

Growing demand for the sweet crude oil grades produced by Brazil’s pre-salt oilfields sees Petrobras focused on developing its pre-salt operations. Brazil’s national oil company has budgeted capital spending for exploration and production activities of $46.5 billion from 2021 to 2025.

Those upstream projects being approved for development must have a breakeven price of $35 per Brent or less. Petrobras has earmarked 70% of that budget for its pre-salt oilfields, notably Búzios where 36% of the total amount will be spent. The premium price paid for Búzios crude oil is a key reason for Petrobras’ focus on expanding operations at the deep-water Búzios oilfield.

The state-controlled oil company plans to deploy four new FPSOs in Búzios between 2022 and 2025 as well as boost the number of producing wells to 29. Petrobras recently reported it had completed the drilling of a new well at the Búzios field where it found what it described as “oil of excellent quality”. That will give Petrobras’ and Brazil’s pre-salt oil production a solid lift.

The integrated energy major is also racing ahead with developing its wholly-owned Itapu field which is expected to produce first oil next year, three years earlier than originally planned. That oilfield is will pump crude oil of a similar grade to Búzios, meaning it should also sell for a premium to Brent.

The Lula and Búzios fields feature low breakeven prices which, along with the oil produced trading at a premium to Brent, enhances their profitability. According to Petrobras, the ultra-deepwater Búzios and Lula fields are pumping crude oil with a breakeven price of less than $35 per barrel.

With Brent trading at $51 per barrel and Lula selling for $53 a barrel, there is considerable incentive for Petrobras to bolster production from those fields. Aside from strong demand from Asia refiners for Brazil’s pre-salt crude oil, stronger than expected domestic fuel demand is also driving the Latin American country’s massive offshore oil boom.

According to Bloomberg fuel consumption in Latin America’s largest economy recently surged past pre-pandemic levels and will continue to strengthen going into 2021. Demand for Petrobras’ low sulfur content fuel is firm and will grow because of the global push to significantly reduce sulfur emissions.

These developments were responsible for Brazil’s October 2020 pre-salt oil output (Portuguese) ratcheting up by a notable 6% compared to a year earlier, to average just over 2.5 million barrels daily. This sees offshore pre-salt oil production responsible for 85.5% of Brazil’s total oil production compared to 81% for the equivalent period during 2019.

Nevertheless, spending cuts by energy majors including Petrobras and the shut-in of uneconomic wells because of the pandemic, were responsible for Brazil’s overall October hydrocarbon production falling 2.6% year over year to an average of just under 3.7 million barrels of oil equivalent daily.

Clearly, while the pandemic has hit Brazil’s oil industry causing production to fall because of savage budget cuts and well shut-ins it appears to have done no material long-term damage. There are signs that pre-salt oil production will keep growing at a solid clip fueled by demand from Asian refiners.

That will be further boosted by stronger demand for crude oil and refined products as vaccines are rolled out, the pandemic eases and the global economy returns growth. It has been estimated by the U.S. EIA that world oil consumption will rise by 6% year over year during 2021 to 98 million barrels daily. For these reasons Brazil’s oil production will grow significantly with Petrobras, which for October was responsible for 73% of the country’s oil output, targeting oil production of 2.7 million barrels daily by 2025.

By Mathew Smith for

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To: Glenn Petersen who wrote (1760)1/7/2021 1:38:11 AM
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From: elmatador1/27/2021 11:23:12 AM
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By September 2020 Brazil had overtaken Iraq to become the third-largest supplier of crude oil to the world’s second-largest economy. That can be attributed to the attractiveness of Brazil’s sweet medium crude oils, notably the Lula and Búzios grades, produced from Latin America’s largest oil producer’s pre-salt oilfields
Soaring demand from Asian refiners for sweet crude oil grades is a key driver of Brazil’s expanding pre-salt oil boom as well as its continued resistance to the severe economic fallout triggered by the pandemic and sharply weaker energy prices.

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To: Glenn Petersen who wrote (2090)2/2/2021 3:00:03 AM
From: elmatador
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Bolsonaro-backed candidates claim top posts in Brazil’s Congress

Congressman Arthur Lira, an ally of Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro, was elected speaker of the lower house of Congress for two years on Monday...

Lira is expected to help the government push through its economic reform agenda aimed at reducing a budget deficit that has soared during the coronavirus pandemic.

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