| To: Keith Feral who wrote (43033) | 1/2/2013 3:51:30 PM | | From: GROUND ZERO™ | | | | I agree, this is why I wrote at the money calls on all my SP and NQ longs... also, the dollar looks like it wants to rally, and this is why I'm now short gold and silver, especially since my model's buy signal for gold looks like it will be rejected today... short gold and silver is beginning to look like a good trade position...
GZ |
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| To: Fiscally Conservative who wrote (43041) | 1/2/2013 3:51:56 PM | | From: robert b furman | | | | They were only cuts for about 12 hours.
Once Bush's cuts expired - they become cuts.
Playing with words are not they.
Bloomberg indicated the 4.6 percent tax increase (from 35% to 39.6%) on those couples who make over $450,000 and singles who make over $400,00, would generate 650 billion .Last years very minor cuts in future expenditures will save 1.1 billion so we have a net of 1.75 billion in a world where 4 to 4.5 billion in expenditures are needed.
Wrangling over the debt ceiling and capping out unemplyment benefits to an individual,means testing Social Security, and upping the medicare age requirements could get us so close - that moderate growth ie energy and housing would get us into a non deficit position.
It is a big picture optimistic view to be sure - but it sounds nice.LOL
Bob |
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| To: Fiscally Conservative who wrote (43041) | 1/2/2013 3:53:18 PM | | From: Brian Sullivan | | | | Curious to know how Congress is going to pay for these 'permanent' Bush Tax Cuts. ?
Can anyone quantify the estimated dollar value on the tax generated for those incomes above $450K ?
These clowns must still believe in Santa. What could I be missing? Ben Bernanke is paying for everything, Obama is running the tab up and wants to keep running trillion dollar deficits forever.
Congress is due to have a showdown on spending cuts in the first week of March.
Tune in then to see what happens.
So where do you put your money??
Equities (foreign or domestic), Gold, Real Estate or Bonds (corporate or government) |
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| To: GROUND ZERO™ who wrote (43045) | 1/2/2013 8:56:08 PM | | From: Keith Feral | | | | The monthly price for the DOW hit the Sept close today at 13412. That keeps the buy signal for the DOW intact for January. Not sure how much backing and filling we might see, but there are a lot of gaps on the charts after today. I won't be shocked at all to see some profit taking tomorrow, especially if the dollar continues to firm. That being said, I'm not sure that 10 year yields are in a position to dip much lower.
I just don't see anything driving the DOW much below 13K this year. Guess that means it's going higher. |
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| To: Keith Feral who wrote (43047) | 1/2/2013 9:12:50 PM | | From: phlegmish | | | | I don't post often, but when I do....
Have been mostly lurking for years, actually since the early days, back on Suite 101. Have been amazed at how consistently your model catches the really big directional moves, and how you have tweaked it (through your trading acumen) to catch extra points as the market approaches your signals. I loved your post from earlier today, when you discussed going "John Galt"-- that's my plan, too in the next couple of years. As an MD, I am totally fed up with what the government and insurance companies have done to our profession, the ridiculous regulations, the mandated EMRs that were shoved down our throats by Obama, the ridiculously long days for an ever shrinking paycheck (I make 45% of what I made in 2000), and now, as an evil 2%er, having a target placed on my back by the new tax code is really the final straw. Unlike my business partners, I have saved fastidiously, and am in a position to walk away shortly. I plan to work 25% less this year, and will prob make 45% less than last year, which gets me well under the highest tax rate (I have a fair amount of passive income from other business investments), but my plan is to be as John Galt as possible within 3-4 years.
See you on the bike trail.
What a day!!
(This was a response to an earlier GZ post, not to Keith's) |
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| To: Brian Sullivan who wrote (43044) | 1/2/2013 9:33:16 PM | | From: Keith Feral | | | | | FED balance sheet is going to get much bigger over time. I have zero doubts about that, and I don't see it creating too many problems since the revenues from the FED go back to the Treasury. The more the FED internalizes the deficit, the fewer revenues heading to China or Japan. Greenspan should have started monetizing the deficit 10 years ago when rates were much higher. But, Bernanke has basically made money on every single bond he's bought since 2009. |
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| From: Keith Feral | 1/2/2013 10:06:49 PM | | | | | | | One caveat for this Friday would be the unemployment numbers. They keep surprising to the upside, even with Sandy storm. Employment could exceed expectations for the next few months before the delayed spending cuts kick in. But, all the winter storms the past few weeks will probably avoid any significant improvement like we had last winter when the snow was virtually non existent. |
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