| To: Qualified Opinion who wrote (42985) | 1/1/2013 10:13:12 PM | | From: Mr. Aloha | | | | After congress voted to raise the debt ceiling on August 2, 2012, the credit rating agencies downgraded U.S. debt for the first time ever, yet the market continued to rally strongly for another month+.
I'd agree that debt downgrades will be negative for the economy, but that shouldn't be a reason to stay short in the face of a relief rally if the fiscal cliff vote passes. IMO, the time to short will be after the resulting rally, which could last quite a while. |
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| To: Qualified Opinion who wrote (42989) | 1/1/2013 11:10:32 PM | | From: Wayners | | | | They kicked the can. Should result in a debt downgrade.
By a vote of 257-167 the House has passed HR 8, the Tax Relief Extension Act, which the Senate passed early Tuesday morning by a vote of 89 to 8. The bill will now be sent to the President for his signature. The so-called "fiscal cliff" agreement had been negotiated Monday between Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) and Vice President Joe Biden. The legislation keeps the Bush era tax cuts for individuals making less than $400,000 and couples making less that $450,000. It also makes permanent the fixes for the Alternative Minimum Tax and delays government spending cuts for two months. In the House 85 Republicans and 172 Democrats voted for the bill, while 151 Republicans and 16 Democrats voted against the bill. |
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| To: Joseph Silent who wrote (42991) | 1/1/2013 11:25:39 PM | | From: Wayners | | | | | I see no credible deficit reduction whatsover, in fact there is a credible deficit increase from giving unemployment out forever and ever. The video games sure produce a lot and they deserve it!. Everybody will buy tomorrow, followed by a devastating debt downgrade as promised by Fitch. |
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| To: Wayners who wrote (42992) | 1/1/2013 11:40:04 PM | | From: Joseph Silent | | | | I leave the convolutions and logic to you guys. But it should be clear that Fitch and S&P are as crooked as the
rest of 'em (or have you forgotten?) and markets go up in the face of downgrades, once the confusion has been used to someone's advantage.
Life's a Fitch to be on the wrong side of a hard-to-predict market. Logic doesn't have a great track record with prices. If it did, everything would be automated, and wires would come out of pointy-headed skulls. Now all that comes out is noise. Noise can be helpful. |
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| To: Wayners who wrote (42990) | 1/2/2013 12:09:12 AM | | From: FCom777 | | | | I'm frankly surprised that the House passed this. I figured the entire 'Cliff' was a hoax - and the master plan of both "parties" was to screw the taxpayer with massive tax hikes while being able to blame the other "party" for the impasse. Seemed like it was no coincidence that the country was split pretty close to 50/50 between the "parties". In that way, all the politicians win while the average guy on the street gets gouged. And the stupid taxpayers would have both been cheering for their 'side' - as they all get gored.
I thought it was a Masterful plan - but I guess I was being too cynical.
What they ought to do is consider making a structural change to the budget process itself to encourage fiscal constraint rather targeting specific cuts themselves. Rather than letting a single bill pass - all or nothing - they should open up a window of time after a budget bill's passage - say two to four weeks - where proposals to eliminate specific line items in the bill can be extracted - similar to a line item veto - but rather than give the power to the Executive Branch - leave the power in the House - and make it so that only 25 to 33 per cent of the votes -or so- are needed to approve the spending extraction proposal. A procedural change like that might be useful to eliminate a lot of the pork that always is embedded in the bill.
Fat chance though - politicians LOVE their pork ... that's why they spend tens of millions to get a job that 'pays' only a couple hundred thousand. But if I was wrong about the 'hoax' theory, maybe I'm wrong about this ... is it possible that SOMEONE on Capital Hill cares about their country? Nah ... fat chance ... |
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