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   Strategies & Market TrendsBuy and Sell Signals, and Other Market Perspectives


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To: SGJ who wrote (37061)8/28/2012 3:20:28 PM
From: GROUND ZERO™
   of 164699
 
WOW!!! I dumped my long bonds just minutes ago, and now they're tanking!!! LOL!!! Talk about luck!!! LOL!!!

GZ

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To: chartseer who wrote (37067)8/28/2012 3:42:12 PM
From: GROUND ZERO™
   of 164699
 
A BRIEF TUTORIAL ON THE BEST WAY TO USE THE NEAR TERM BUY AND SELL SIGNALS...

Some people have asked me to provide a simple explanation on the best way to use the near term (NT) signal in conjunction with the main model signals... so, here's how, it's really very simple...

The best and safest time to take a NT sell signal is when the main model has been on a buy signal for some time and the market has rallied and is fast approaching or has already reached an overhead VP price, then a near term indicator sell signal would let me know that the market is likely to sell off from that particular VP...

Since the market is already vulnerable to a sell off at a VP price, the NT signal provides that much greater certainly for the trade... the actual sell off may be modest or it may be a market top of some significance, there's no way to know that until the market itself tells us... but clearly, to use the NT sell signal at any other time is much more risky and is not worth the trade unless you feel you want to be aggressive and believe you're nimble enough to exit a bad trade if the market doesn't respond as expected...

Of course, the same would be true with a NT buy signal when the market has already declined on a confirmed model sell signal and the price has already entered the downside VP vicinity...

Otherwise, any other trades based on the NT signals without the market in the vicinity of an upside or downside VP is far more risky and definitely not worth the trade...

GZ

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To: GROUND ZERO™ who wrote (37064)8/28/2012 3:44:26 PM
From: SGJ
1 Recommendation   of 164699
 
Yes, the end of this bond mini-rally may fuel stocks

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To: SGJ who wrote (37070)8/28/2012 3:49:03 PM
From: GROUND ZERO™
   of 164699
 
I think so... in fact, I still think bonds could rally more, but I think it would be a higher risk trade at this point...

GZ

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To: GROUND ZERO™ who wrote (37069)8/28/2012 3:58:03 PM
From: chartseer
   of 164699
 
Gee Thanks!

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To: chartseer who wrote (37072)8/28/2012 4:03:46 PM
From: GROUND ZERO™
   of 164699
 
You're welcome, I hope it helps...<g>

GZ

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To: GROUND ZERO™ who wrote (37073)8/28/2012 4:05:38 PM
From: penthouse mike
   of 164699
 
Did both your models end the day on sell signals, but you are still long the ES?

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To: penthouse mike who wrote (37074)8/28/2012 4:12:26 PM
From: GROUND ZERO™
   of 164699
 
Yes... (gulp)...

It may be a mistake, but I'm anticipating a turn around here very soon, otherwise I get stopped out, and no big deal if I do, it's a small position...

GZ

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To: GROUND ZERO™ who wrote (37030)8/28/2012 4:24:46 PM
From: TFF
   of 164699
 
Interesting that the market touched your buy signal point and faded into the close.

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To: TFF who wrote (37076)8/28/2012 4:44:54 PM
From: GROUND ZERO™
   of 164699
 
yes, I saw that... but, it wasn't a buy signal point, it was just a key chart price above which the market had to close to complete a nice 3 day buy wiggle pattern... it wasn't a model signal price, just a daily chart pattern price... we could still see it tomorrow or later this week, if we see it at all...

GZ

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