Buy and Sell Signals, and Other Market Perspectives

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Strategies & Market Trends Buy and Sell Signals, and Other Market Perspectives

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To: yard_man who wrote (207567)	2/16/2025 5:10:22 AM
From: GROUND ZERO™	1 Recommendation of 211316

Another concern about these markets is the recent inflationary influence on them... Stock prices more than likely also rallied on the influences of inflation... As inflation subsides, then these markets may also lose the inflated price levels that occurred... A reduction in inflation would not only reduce store prices but also stock prices... That's just another consideration worth mentioning... So, we'll see how credible this issue may be... GZ

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To: GROUND ZERO™ who wrote (207554)	2/16/2025 1:09:58 PM
From: Chip McVickar	1 Recommendation of 211316

GZ... You might wish to take another look... Neither the S&P futures or cash or SPY took out their previous highs last week. My Best, Chip

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To: Chip McVickar who wrote (207571)	2/16/2025 1:26:16 PM
From: GROUND ZERO™	of 211316

Hi Chip, Great hearing from you!!! Thank you, yes, I did see that, but the SPY did... So, there is some sort of divergence now, however it may be... So, we'll see how things unfold going forward.. I prefer being bullish, but I can't ignore the charts... Also, the monthly Coppock Curve has clearly turned downward after moving higher for a number of years... This also can't be ignored too quickly... So, we'll see... GZ

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To: GROUND ZERO™ who wrote (207572)	2/16/2025 6:20:45 PM
From: Chip McVickar	of 211316

Yes it is Great connecting with you, GZ You are right SPY was above by 0.21... That isn't a conclusive divergence... but there are a number of other divergences that are substantive and against the grain. Fore instance the AI Index as a leader of this last speculative push... those 9 stocks are off -10% in three weeks. The 10 biggest stocks of the S&P are as a group are beginning to fold... The Mortgage & Housing sectors are being squeezed... Also, market valuations are at some of the most extreme levels of the past 100 years... but over valuation does not cause bear markets... so we'll see have to see if stocks are in a valuation bubble. I believe only the leaders as noted are overvalued not the broader market. Last year, for the second consecutive year, barely 25% of stocks in the S&P 500 Index were able to match or beat the Index. There are only two other years in the past 40 with such dismal underperformance –1998 and 1999– which turned out to be the final two years of the Tech Bubble. This weeks inflation reports show the Fed’s goal of price stability and their path toward 2% is getting harder… The possibility of further rate cuts in 2025 is becoming much more uncertain and the Fed may have to rethink their strategy moving forward. My Best to you, Chip

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To: Chip McVickar who wrote (207573)	2/16/2025 6:25:51 PM
From: GROUND ZERO™	of 211316

You make all very excellent points and I completely agree with you... Also, by the way, the Buffett Indicator as of this past Friday's close was at 209%, this is a record high and is not likely sustainable... I'm not trying to argue a bearish case, just that this market is seriously way over extended right now and that cannot be ignored too quickly... I prefer being 100% bullish, but there are too many flags being raised right now, I have to wonder... So, we'll see... GZ

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To: yard_man who wrote (207568)	2/17/2025 6:42:56 AM
From: GROUND ZERO™	of 211316

I haven't seen any news reports on this yet but I heard first hand that all those ex-federal employees, and there are tens of thousands of them, have now put up their homes on the market at below market value... They're willing to sell at any price just to get out from under and leave D.C.... This seems like the D.C. home market may take a big hit... We're looking at the highest level of resale homes for sale in Washington D.C. in recent memory... Also, the previously existing pending home sales are also sharply declining in order to keep up with the new price decline... Is this the beginning of a housing crash kicking off? GZ

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To: GROUND ZERO™ who wrote (207575)	2/17/2025 7:33:44 AM
From: John Carragher	1 Recommendation of 211316

i doubt we see a house crash many of these homes will be bought on the market by republican supporters moving into washington area, firms moving into washington area. and new lobbyist coming aboard

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To: John Carragher who wrote (207576)	2/17/2025 9:00:10 AM
From: GROUND ZERO™	of 211316

Hmmm, excellent point!!! That may well happen... I hear more than 70,000 federal employees were already fired... GZ

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To: GROUND ZERO™ who wrote (207577)	2/17/2025 12:37:22 PM
From: yard_man	1 Recommendation of 211316

Much is said of the folks being let go -- what is not said: So far Trump has hardly made a dent in all of the folks that Biden hired. The government was hiring like a drunken sailor under Biden. I have to laugh when the networks cry about USAID ... surely it was at least 1/2 grift. They bemoan how terrible these lost services are here and abroad. Out of the other sides of their mouth they say: It makes up less than 1% of the Fed budget. We need FARRRRRR deeper cuts ... this is not anywhere near what is required for a balanced budget. More outlets are picking up the chatter of a revaluation.

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To: yard_man who wrote (207578)	2/17/2025 1:19:29 PM
From: GROUND ZERO™	2 Recommendations of 211316

It has only been three weeks, give it time... Yes, this is already a revolution and we don't realize it... Donald is only now beginning to dismantle the Roosevelt machine which FDR began 90 years ago... Put in all into an historic perspective and it all becomes very clear... Even the nonsense about "sanctuary cities" is a throwback to the pre civil war confederacy when the southern states rejected federal law, that was how the confederacy was born... When Lincoln ran for president, the southern states tried to remove his name from the ballot, sound familiar??? Nothing has changed in all this time, the confederacy is still trying to bring back slavery and instead they now want all of us to be their slaves... The few hold out republicans now in the Senate do not understand the significance of today's politics, they better get with the program or this revolution will fall apart... Donald won a public mandate, the biggest in 129 years... Grover Cleveland won that previous mandate in 1895 when he won his second term which was non consecutive just like Donald today, a second non consecutive term... Benjamin Harrison held the office between Cleveland's two times in office and he was a complete disaster... Look at the historic perspective of Donald's win today and we can begin to appreciate the powerful significance of his presidency... Most definitely, we are now in a revolution!!! GZ

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