Buy and Sell Signals, and Other Market Perspectives

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Strategies & Market Trends Buy and Sell Signals, and Other Market Perspectives

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To: GROUND ZERO™ who wrote (207564)	2/15/2025 12:30:00 PM
From: yard_man	1 Recommendation of 211293

<== This!!

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To: yard_man who wrote (207568)	2/15/2025 7:01:33 PM
From: GROUND ZERO™	of 211293

Exactly!!! If those small handful of "hold out" republicans want to pussy foot around this time it will so unfortunately cost them more than they realize... But, as they say, you can't fix stupid... GZ

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To: yard_man who wrote (207567)	2/16/2025 5:10:22 AM
From: GROUND ZERO™	1 Recommendation of 211293

Another concern about these markets is the recent inflationary influence on them... Stock prices more than likely also rallied on the influences of inflation... As inflation subsides, then these markets may also lose the inflated price levels that occurred... A reduction in inflation would not only reduce store prices but also stock prices... That's just another consideration worth mentioning... So, we'll see how credible this issue may be... GZ

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To: GROUND ZERO™ who wrote (207554)	2/16/2025 1:09:58 PM
From: Chip McVickar	1 Recommendation of 211293

GZ... You might wish to take another look... Neither the S&P futures or cash or SPY took out their previous highs last week. My Best, Chip

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To: Chip McVickar who wrote (207571)	2/16/2025 1:26:16 PM
From: GROUND ZERO™	of 211293

Hi Chip, Great hearing from you!!! Thank you, yes, I did see that, but the SPY did... So, there is some sort of divergence now, however it may be... So, we'll see how things unfold going forward.. I prefer being bullish, but I can't ignore the charts... Also, the monthly Coppock Curve has clearly turned downward after moving higher for a number of years... This also can't be ignored too quickly... So, we'll see... GZ

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To: GROUND ZERO™ who wrote (207572)	2/16/2025 6:20:45 PM
From: Chip McVickar	of 211293

Yes it is Great connecting with you, GZ You are right SPY was above by 0.21... That isn't a conclusive divergence... but there are a number of other divergences that are substantive and against the grain. Fore instance the AI Index as a leader of this last speculative push... those 9 stocks are off -10% in three weeks. The 10 biggest stocks of the S&P are as a group are beginning to fold... The Mortgage & Housing sectors are being squeezed... Also, market valuations are at some of the most extreme levels of the past 100 years... but over valuation does not cause bear markets... so we'll see have to see if stocks are in a valuation bubble. I believe only the leaders as noted are overvalued not the broader market. Last year, for the second consecutive year, barely 25% of stocks in the S&P 500 Index were able to match or beat the Index. There are only two other years in the past 40 with such dismal underperformance –1998 and 1999– which turned out to be the final two years of the Tech Bubble. This weeks inflation reports show the Fed’s goal of price stability and their path toward 2% is getting harder… The possibility of further rate cuts in 2025 is becoming much more uncertain and the Fed may have to rethink their strategy moving forward. My Best to you, Chip

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To: Chip McVickar who wrote (207573)	2/16/2025 6:25:51 PM
From: GROUND ZERO™	of 211293

You make all very excellent points and I completely agree with you... Also, by the way, the Buffett Indicator as of this past Friday's close was at 209%, this is a record high and is not likely sustainable... I'm not trying to argue a bearish case, just that this market is seriously way over extended right now and that cannot be ignored too quickly... I prefer being 100% bullish, but there are too many flags being raised right now, I have to wonder... So, we'll see... GZ

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To: yard_man who wrote (207568)	2/17/2025 6:42:56 AM
From: GROUND ZERO™	of 211293

I haven't seen any news reports on this yet but I heard first hand that all those ex-federal employees, and there are tens of thousands of them, have now put up their homes on the market at below market value... They're willing to sell at any price just to get out from under and leave D.C.... This seems like the D.C. home market may take a big hit... We're looking at the highest level of resale homes for sale in Washington D.C. in recent memory... Also, the previously existing pending home sales are also sharply declining in order to keep up with the new price decline... Is this the beginning of a housing crash kicking off? GZ

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To: GROUND ZERO™ who wrote (207575)	2/17/2025 7:33:44 AM
From: John Carragher	1 Recommendation of 211293

i doubt we see a house crash many of these homes will be bought on the market by republican supporters moving into washington area, firms moving into washington area. and new lobbyist coming aboard

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To: John Carragher who wrote (207576)	2/17/2025 9:00:10 AM
From: GROUND ZERO™	of 211293

Hmmm, excellent point!!! That may well happen... I hear more than 70,000 federal employees were already fired... GZ

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