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   Strategies & Market TrendsBuy and Sell Signals, and Other Market Perspectives


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To: GROUND ZERO™ who wrote (11903)10/29/2010 8:37:34 AM
From: robert b furman
2 Recommendations   of 151053
 
I think we are near the end of the first wave of a major wave three up.

Just my guess and that is all it is.

We'll bump our heads on 1220 act weak.

That will put us into a corrective 3 waver down for most of December and beginning of Q1.

If it is ugly DIP BUYERS WILL GET SCARED OUT AS TO HOW FAR SHE DIPS OR MAYBE HOW QUICKLY IT DROPS ,BUT REALLY ALL IN A RANGE BOUND SIDEWAYS PATTERN.

IF MONEY FLOWS GET OUT OF FIXED AND INTO EQUITIES - THAT SHOULD BE WHAT HAPPENS SCARY HYPED RANGE BOUND.

This should give us a time to reload.

ALL in ALL we have a resilient economy.We need to bust the government unions and roll back the ridiculous pensions that have been manipulated by sharpies.We need to be conservative and invest in America's greatness and stop all this support of those who do not add to our greatness.We need to wake up and get real - there is no tooth fairy and your government is broke!

Retirement is a time to do something else - not boost your past 5 years of income (police and firefighters)so you sit back at home,become a drunk and die.JMHO

I've sold my 8% margin down to cash - I've done it a bit early,I'm trying to retire from day to day running my dealership and go to Wisconsin to remodel a commercial building I bought 4 years ago and need some cash to work with.

If my count is right we are in a major wave up that should take us to 1558 (spx) then an end of year 2011 corrective wave.

Could give us one more good time in 2012 and then our generation will have to be given a wake up call.Work until you die or you should have been saving and planning because your government has been stealing your money.

Older retirement ages and means testing - those that paid get zip - those that didn't pay get it all - but it is not much.

Inflation will then kill us, we'll need to be flush and getting into fixed investments that are very high in rate and will crush growth.

That's my story,I can't prove it ,but I'm sticking to it.

So we have a short term run up and maybe a bit over 1220,with a correction into 2011.

Unless the Bush tax cuts get extended we'll have an Obama tax increase and that will force a flurry of Tax selling in December.Another reason I've done my selling in October.I'd like to reload into the Christmas tax selling and have my 30 day wash rule behind me.If I have the nerve to buy into the doom and gloom.<smile>

I'll need your fearless help then!<smile>

Bob

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To: robert b furman who wrote (11904)10/29/2010 8:56:26 AM
From: GROUND ZERO™
   of 151053
 
Excellent assessment, thanks for sharing it... accuracy is not as important here as a well thought through market assessment, and your is clearly well thought through and clearly explained... thanks again...<g>

GZ

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To: GROUND ZERO™ who wrote (11905)10/29/2010 9:00:08 AM
From: larryjoe
1 Recommendation   of 151053
 
Today's chart illustrates that investing in the S&P 500 from the last trading day in October (therefore referred to as the Halloween indicator) through the end of April accounted for the vast majority of S&P 500 gains since 1950.

chartoftheday.com

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To: larryjoe who wrote (11906)10/29/2010 9:04:07 AM
From: GROUND ZERO™
   of 151053
 
Interesting, good to know, thank you...

GZ

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To: Hawk who wrote (11900)10/29/2010 9:33:57 AM
From: Kirk ©
   of 151053
 
yes but the point is they can buy right back. So if they like the stocks, they can re buy them or buy a better stock.

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To: Kirk © who wrote (11908)10/29/2010 10:20:26 AM
From: Hawk
   of 151053
 
Sunday is Halloween and that means next week the “sell in May and go away” cycle is replaced by its bullish opposite. Traders, however, will also note that it marks the beginning of a new tax sale fiscal year for mutual funds. Traditionally, trading profits taken by mutual funds before Halloween result in a taxable event for the fund holder in the same year. Profits taken after Halloween are not taxed until the following year. So, are mutual funds sitting on a batch of profit-taking sales starting next week? There may be more to think about than elections and QE2. - Art Cashin

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To: GROUND ZERO™ who wrote (11903)10/29/2010 11:01:09 AM
From: TraderMann
   of 151053
 
As long as we hold above Wednesday's low of 1172 (which I believe is your sell signal), then we are fine and should move higher. It looks like the 1177 pivot will be tested yet again and if it holds I feel we move higher... I may have just jumped the gun by a few days. :) I said a week ago that this 1177 pivot was very important and should hold if we are to go higher. We tested the 13dma and it seemed to hold with a slight move (1 1/2 pts.) below on Wednesday. Per the TA and charts we move higher. I feel we will stretch the rubber band (market) again before a larger correction will happen.

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To: TraderMann who wrote (11910)10/29/2010 11:06:17 AM
From: TraderMann
   of 151053
 
----------------------------------------
Breaking News Alert: U.S. GDP grew at 2% annual rate in 3Q
October 29, 2010 8:48:08 AM
----------------------------------------

Economic growth accelerated a bit late this summer, according to new government data, even as the nation remained stuck in a pattern of economic expansion that is too slow to bring down joblessness.

Gross domestic product expanded at a 2 percent annual rate in the July through September quarter, the Commerce Department said Friday, matching economists’ forecasts. That was a slight improvement from the 1.7 percent growth rate of the second quarter and the fifth straight quarter of expansion.

link.email.washingtonpost.com

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To: Hawk who wrote (11909)10/29/2010 11:45:39 AM
From: GROUND ZERO™
   of 151053
 
Therefore? What does this imply for the markets? TIA

GZ

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To: GROUND ZERO™ who wrote (11912)10/29/2010 12:14:22 PM
From: TraderMann
   of 151053
 
I take it as a bit of what I call "noise" in a up movement. Buy at Halloween and Sell in May. Hope I'm right!!

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