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   Strategies & Market TrendsHumble1 and Swing Trading Friends


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From: zman698/28/2012 5:36:18 PM
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I am ready for a good old fashioned face ripper rally tomorrow, who is with me? ;)

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To: zman69 who wrote (8820)8/28/2012 5:41:21 PM
From: llap
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The pessimism bubble is blowing up more and more: nber.org, amazon.com
There seems to be a growing consensus among economists that growth is done for good (at least for decades to come). Once this has become THE consensus, we will enter another period of strong growth for a whole generation. While I believe the worst is over with the Great Recession passed, I do not think we are there yet. We will be there once the incomes across the whole income spectrum start to grow again, not only for the top 5% as currently. It may take a few more years for this to happen.

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To: Joseph Silent who wrote (8826)8/28/2012 5:44:08 PM
From: chartseer
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Don't mind me! I am just a cranky old man.

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To: chartseer who wrote (8830)8/28/2012 6:34:09 PM
From: humble1
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chartseer: How old ARE you?

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To: zman69 who wrote (8828)8/28/2012 6:35:05 PM
From: humble1
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Hand raised here ... lead on! :)

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To: humble1 who wrote (8831)8/28/2012 8:48:55 PM
From: Challo Jeregy
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in these days, and this market, one doesn't have to be "old" to be grumpy . . . -g-

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From: zman698/29/2012 8:47:51 AM
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"it should be understood that fulfilling our mandate sometimes requires us to go beyond standard monetary policy tools. When markets are fragmented or influenced by irrational fears, our monetary policy signals do not reach citizens evenly across the euro area. We have to fix such blockages to ensure a single monetary policy and therefore price stability for all euro area citizens. This may at times require exceptional measures. But this is our responsibility as the central bank of the euro area as a whole." -Draghi

ecb.europa.eu

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To: zman69 who wrote (8834)8/29/2012 9:03:38 AM
From: humble1
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Z: Drahi gets it ... we have gone from "irrational exuberance" to "irrational fears" in this cycle. i wonder if he had the greenspan quote in mind and i know it was well before the 3/24/00 spx top, but, intentional or not, it's interesting.

the "exceptional measures" is the key, of course. it clears the legal path for the ecb to do lots more within their mandate.

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To: Joseph Silent who wrote (8817)8/29/2012 9:15:07 AM
From: robert b furman
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I'd like to see Macd turn up!!

Bob

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To: humble1 who wrote (8835)8/29/2012 9:24:31 AM
From: zman69
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Very good point on the Draghi hat tip to Greenspan's "irrational exuberance". We truly are at the mirror image of the late 90's when the Sheeple were stampeding into stocks at record high valuations relative to bonds/cash. Now we have the Sheeple bailing out of stocks en masse and into bonds/cash at record NEGATIVE real yields. The link below is a nice illustration of stock/bonds relative valuation.

markettrak.com

It's truly a "Pessimism Bubble" and it is not a question of if but when it will finally pop.

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