| From: humble1 | 5/24/2024 1:31:54 AM | | | | | | Yesterday and H1 cycles:
5/23/24 looks most likely to have been a washout day before a Summer Rally into Calendar Day 9/2/24. It was a Full Moon + Venus conjunct Jupiter in Taurus, The Bull. An important AstroDay plus a MoonDay has a long history of being a High Energy Day when it fits into a larger pattern.
It engulfed six SPX trading days and stopped right at support on the R2K. Perfect! A mini bear market in one day.
Message 34252966 |
| | Humble1 and Swing Trading Friends | Stock Discussion ForumsShare | RecommendKeepReplyMark as Last Read |
|
| To: humble1 who wrote (40020) | 5/28/2024 9:44:13 AM | | From: Lou Weed | | | | Just checked the economic calendar for the rest of the week and there's multiple Fed speakers EVERY day. Literally exhausting. I see this Kashkari dude is speaking again in 10 minutes. FFS.
Put him in a Dr Evil uniform and give him a white fluffy cat and get it over with....LOL! |
| | Humble1 and Swing Trading Friends | Stock Discussion ForumsShare | RecommendKeepReplyMark as Last Read |
|
| From: humble1 | 5/29/2024 2:20:00 AM | | | | | | We are still dealing with the aftershocks of the Venus conjunct Jupiter in Taurus which coincided with the 5/23 Full Moon. A classic High Energy Day:
Message 34252966
The Trump Trial is probably a distraction but should be over soon with a conviction and a yawner probation. I doubt they will put him in jail. But: Who Knows! |
| | Humble1 and Swing Trading Friends | Stock Discussion ForumsShare | RecommendKeepReplyMark as Last Read |
|
| From: humble1 | 5/29/2024 8:19:34 AM | | | | | | Max Beige Book/PCEI anxiety after Crazy Eyes Kashkari’s rate hawk rant:
The release of the Fed's Beige Book later Wednesday could shed more light ahead of Friday's reading on PCE, the central bank's preferred inflation gauge.
Yields climbed higher Tuesday after a Treasury Department auction of 5-year notes worth $70 billion saw low demand. The bid-to-cover ratio, which is a closely watched demand gauge, came in at 2.3, below the 10-auction average of 2.45.
Investors also considered how the economy is faring and awaited fresh economic data due throughout the week which could inform Federal Reserve policymaking.
That includes the personal consumption expenditures price index on Friday, which is the Fed’s favored inflation gauge. Several Fed officials are also due to give remarks this week, which investors will be scanning for fresh hints about the path ahead for interest rates.
Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari in Tuesday told CNBC that he was looking for “many more months of positive inflation data” before being comfortable with cutting rates.
Fed officials have in recent weeks widely indicated that patience is needed when it comes to rate cuts, and that they are looking for economic data to show inflation is sustainably returning to the central bank’s 2% target before moving to ease policy. |
| | Humble1 and Swing Trading Friends | Stock Discussion ForumsShare | RecommendKeepReplyMark as Last Read |
|
| From: humble1 | 5/31/2024 2:16:04 AM | | | | | | A good recap of the current rate and inflation situation:
Inflation is taking baby steps towards coming back to where policymakers want it, with a report due Friday expected to show more of that creeping progress.
The Commerce Department’s measure of personal consumption expenditures prices is expected to show inflation in April running at a 2.7% annual rate, according to the Dow Jones estimates both for overall inflation and the “core” that excludes food and energy costs.
If that forecast holds, it will represent a slight decline on the core measure and little change on the overall rate, though economists will be looking at both the annual and monthly measures. Core inflation is expected to have slowed to 0.2%, which would represent at least some further progress toward easing price pressure on weary consumers.
Overall, the report, due at 8:30 a.m. ET, likely will point to another incremental move back to the Federal Reserve’s 2% target.
“We do not expect any major upward or downward surprises in Friday’s PCE as most of the recent economic data is indicative of an economy that has settled into a nice long-term simmer of not too hot and not too cold,” said Carol Schleif, chief investment officer at BMO Family Office. “That said, getting to the Fed’s 2% target is apt to be a bumpy landing.”
The Fed prefers the PCE measure as it accounts for shifts in consumer behavior, such as when shoppers will substitute less-expensive items for pricier ones. The theory is that the methodology provides a better look at the actual cost of living rather than just absolute prices. Fed officials particularly focus on core as it serves as a better longer-term indicator.
The Commerce Department delivered some good news Thursday — again, in modest terms — when it reported that PCE for the first quarter rose 3.3% on headline and 3.6% on core, both 0.1 percentage point lower than the initial estimate. Similarly, the “chain-weighted” price index was at 3%, also 0.1 percentage point below the first print.
However, those numbers are still a good deal from the Fed’s target. Markets have been sensitive to inflation movements, particularly as how they reflect on the central bank’s intentions with interest rates. Current expectations are for just one rate cut this year, likely in November, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch measure of futures pricing.
“Economists are optimistically expecting a lower monthly read in this report than the CPI, and any disappointment may lead markets to consider further the prospects for any cuts in 2024,” said Matthew Ryan, head of market strategy at global financial services firm Ebury.
New York Fed President John Williams, part of the leadership troika at the central bank that also includes Chair Jerome Powell and Vice Chair Philip Jefferson, said Thursday he expects PCE inflation to keep nudging lower,down to about 2.5% by the end of the year before eventually hitting 2% in 2026.
“We’ve got lot of dynamic supply and increasing productivity in the economy. So that’s how I know what’s happening,” Williams said. “It’s always a big question mark how that will evolve in the future.” |
| | Humble1 and Swing Trading Friends | Stock Discussion ForumsShare | RecommendKeepReplyMark as Last Read |
|
| From: humble1 | 5/31/2024 10:19:45 AM | | | | | | | 6/2 (Sunday) is an important AstroDay. So what happens Monday may be the key. A green day today would be nice but Monday is the other side of the AstroHit. If this decline has been all about 6/2 we will know soon. |
| | Humble1 and Swing Trading Friends | Stock Discussion ForumsShare | RecommendKeepReplyMark as Last Read |
|
| From: humble1 | 5/31/2024 5:55:03 PM | | | | | | Wow! What a close; what a day; what a week.
A Bullish Engulfer on the SPX which offsets the 5/23 Bearish Engulfer as SPX trampolined off of the 50 day sma. The R2K snuck in Three White Soldiers. And the 10 year treasury sank back to 4.5%:
Message 34252966
The weekly Hammer:
Message 34662967 |
| | Humble1 and Swing Trading Friends | Stock Discussion ForumsShare | RecommendKeepReplyMark as Last Read |
|
| |
