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   Microcap & Penny StocksMicrocap Potential Homeruns--Credible, and Reporting


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To: Ted M who wrote (1047)9/30/2015 7:53:06 PM
From: NAG1
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Ted,

Not a good year for Viscount and Implant Sciences. If they had "hit" like I was expecting them to, retirement would have been sooner rather than later.

I still have some hope for both of them, but I have less faith in Viscount than in Implant Sciences. Maybe the big issue to take away from both of them is that if you are a small company dealing with the government, timelines will almost always fall by the wayside. I am not sure who is to blame here. The companies or the government. My guess they both have some blame here.

With Implant Sciences, I was expecting at least 10 million in the quarter. Their guidance makes it seem that they will build to a 10 million dollar quarter. So they will keep hemorrhaging cash for at least the next couple of months, barring the TSA stepping up whatever timeline they are on. No wonder they are waiting on refinancing. It really isn't an option right now. I would guess someone will pick them up on the cheap if they can't build revenues significantly more than their guidance speaks to.

With Viscount, I think it was worth the effort of a new sales force but it doesn't seem that anyone can push their solution any faster than what is happening. I am selling this off a bit each month, hoping that somehow some value can be found and the share price will rebound but I am afraid that ship has sailed.

I think I am done with small companies for a while. I will be looking to diversify my portfolios more and look at a dividend strategy that will give me enough cash flow to retire. It has been a while since I hit a decent winner in the small cap space.

Good luck to you.

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To: NAG1 who wrote (1049)9/30/2015 9:57:36 PM
From: Ted M
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Neal, I've enjoyed our discussions even though some of our favs here have not worked out well. Misery loves company, you know :). Relying on company input regarding govt timelines/actions/mandates was what I see as my biggest mistake. As well as dipping back into companies with debt issues..I thought I had learned my lesson on that 5 years ago..

Implant said they shipped 'many hundreds' of units, so maybe this qtr will actually exceed 10 million. It appears likely from the little info I've looked at that the TSA is at a significantly lower price than ECAC so if that is true then if they have a qtr where they are going full-speed on ECAC they would do better margin-wise than going full-speed on TSA.

Thanks for the well wishes. I hope things work out well for you too and that retirement will come sooner rather than later. Your one of the good guys here..,

Ted

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To: Ted M who wrote (1050)10/1/2015 10:12:57 PM
From: NAG1
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Ted,

Thanks and right back at you. It has been fun, even though there have been a lot more misery than company recently ;-) At least in the short term, you made the correct choice on IMSC. The action of the last week has but me in a big hole there. I think I have the time for it to correct but will give them the next year to get their act together.

I have about 4 years till I want to retire but I want the finances in place well before that time. I don't want to wait until the last moment. And if I feel I want to retire earlier, I want to be able to do that. I want to be able to get that dividend portfolio into position by the time I am 60 and tweak it till I retire.

One of the things I have enjoyed here and microcap kitchen is that you get very few people with "agendas". Ihub has become a place where it would seem that shills that are pro and con a stock battle it out. Unfortunately, the truth and real discussion suffers. Unfortunately, not enough of that goes on on investment boards anymore.

Neal

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To: NAG1 who wrote (1051)10/2/2015 12:18:20 PM
From: Ted M
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Yeah, the agendas are so annoying and obvious on IHUB and in that atmosphere even real/honest discussion becomes suspect. Much less so on the kitchen here. Hope the retirement planning goes well for you.

Ted

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To: Ted M who wrote (1052)10/7/2015 7:15:18 PM
From: NAG1
   of 1056
 
Ted,

Thanks. I have a nice bit of Apple stock that I want to start to sell down and start building a dividend based portfolio but I don't want to part with Apple at these prices. I think it should be at least 20-30% higher than it is right now so this planning will have to wait.

My small cap portfolio is doing much worse than I expected. I expected big things from VSYS, DECN and IMSC.

VSYS is the one that is in the worst shape. I have held and added shares for years. I feel pretty foolish right now but I really thought Raefield would turn things around. I guess the lesson is never rely on a small cap company that does most of its business with the government. It seems that things get constantly delayed and maybe that is partly due to the big boys using their political connections to cause this. I would have thought revenues would be at least 10 million this year. I will be happy if they can do 6. I have been selling Viscount because they can't seem to get out of blocks without continuous stumbling. The interesting thing with the last batch that I sold, the bid dipped but then came back almost to the bid that I had gotten for my batch. It seems that there is interest in the stock at these levels. Fortunately, I need to balance some gains this year so selling this helps. At this point in time, I put their chances of success at 10%.

IMSC is sort of in the same boat. They have a decent nut to pay off each month and they are depending on public agencies to place orders for their devices. I think they are in better shape in terms of acceptance of their products but worse shape financially and need their debt refinanced. If they only do around 40 million as their guidance talked about in the last CC, then I am hoping for a buyout. I was hoping for about twice that much. But it does seem that they are selling their products and I put their chances at about 50% and that would include a buyout.

DECN I always liked for their glucose strip business. I just didn't think the lawsuit with J&J would last this long. If they can get some good money out of the suit, it will be nice to see if they can actually sell their product and make a profit. If they win the lawsuit or if J&J finally decides to cut its losses, it will be a big short term winner but then the hard work actually begins. Since lawsuits can never truly be counted on, I put their chances of success at about 50%,

I have some fair sized positions in CDOC and LLLI. CDOC, with the settlement of the shareholder lawsuit, maybe it can now get some traction. LLLI, if they don't see a fair sized jump in revenues by the end of the year, I will sell.

Smaller positions right now in BKYI, CETX, PLUG, GLYE, SMID, FTLF, CTDH and PYDS. I have hope for PLUG and SMID. PYDS appears to have slowing revenue growth and I have sold part of my position their. BKYI and FTLF I will sell by the end of the year if their is no progress although FTLF may get a little longer since they may have bought some growth the their recent merger. CETX I am holding to see hat happens. Same for CTDH but I may be selling this one by years end. SMID seems to be doing well but whenever things start to turn around for them, it appears that construction stuff goes into the crapper and they head back down again. I hope that the timing of things will finally work out for them.

That is the short poop on my small cap portfolio. As you can see, you can hardly have done much worse than what I have done. I was basically waiting for the home run to hit that would help allow me to get to a good place for retirement. I guess I will have to wait somewhat longer and hope Apple can find what I consider its true value.

Good luck.

Neal

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To: NAG1 who wrote (1053)10/8/2015 11:16:36 AM
From: Ted M
   of 1056
 
Neal, I feel your pain. I've tried to figure out how my previous ability seems to have slipped (or maybe it was all just a mirage), and I think it is a combination of changes in the penny-stock environment in part, but the government reliance mostly, along with lack of discipline regarding keeping X% in more solidly fundamental companies.

I've owned all of the companies you listed except GLYE at one time or another..

At this point timing is more important than ever for me to re-balance.

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From: Karl Drobnic7/4/2018 11:49:37 PM
   of 1056
 
Virnetx (VHC) 3.50 has the potential to be go ballistic. Patent play that has beaten Apple in court 4 times and is owed closed to a billion.

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From: Celtictrader7/12/2018 12:46:16 PM
   of 1056
 
Bought some Penny Lotto's in ASKH,EMPM EQST& trying for some AKVA Just maybe lucky Lotto's

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