| To: J.B.C. who wrote (34374) | 7/1/2022 11:44:11 AM | | From: J.B.C. | | | | | Nothing to like here in the "other" indicators. For DWA subscribers go to the charts from the May DWA Forum in Las Vegas. Review the "State of the Market" chart package and review the current status of those charts. |
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| To: mattstat who wrote (34376) | 7/25/2022 9:53:35 PM | | From: J.B.C. | | | | From DWA:
Observations:
Equities ended higher after another busy week of earnings. The Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq gained 2%, 2.6%, and 3.3%, respectively, and returned to Point & Figure buy signals.This also led to several constructive moves from our technical indicators. The Positive Trend and Ten Week for the S&P 500 each reversed up into Xs to signal increased stock participation.Furthermore, the NYSE High Low reversed into X’s after reaching 10% or lower for a second consecutive time - an occurrence that has only happened seven other times since 1980.Although notable outliers are present, historically, this has been a strong signal for markets. In fact, the S&P 500 never posted a loss six- and twelve-months after.Two macro things to watch this week would be Treasuries and the US Dollar. TNX completed a bearish triangle on Friday and the US Dollar is exhaling; each now tests key support levels.
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| To: mattstat who wrote (34376) | 7/25/2022 9:57:06 PM | | From: J.B.C. | | | | From DWA:
Observations:
Equities ended higher after another busy week of earnings. The Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq gained 2%, 2.6%, and 3.3%, respectively, and returned to Point & Figure buy signals.This also led to several constructive moves from our technical indicators. The Positive Trend and Ten Week for the S&P 500 each reversed up into Xs to signal increased stock participation.Furthermore, the NYSE High Low reversed into X’s after reaching 10% or lower for a second consecutive time - an occurrence that has only happened seven other times since 1980.Although notable outliers are present, historically, this has been a strong signal for markets. In fact, the S&P 500 never posted a loss six- and twelve-months after.Two macro things to watch this week would be Treasuries and the US Dollar. TNX completed a bearish triangle on Friday and the US Dollar is exhaling; each now tests key support levels.
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Observations:
• Equities ended higher after another busy week of earnings. The
Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq gained 2%, 2.6%, and 3.3%,
respectively, and returned to Point & Figure buy signals.
This also led to several constructive moves from our technical
indicators. The Positive Trend and Ten Week for the S&P 500
each reversed up into Xs to signal increased stock participation.
Furthermore, the NYSE High Low reversed into X's after reaching
10% or lower for a second consecutive time - an occurrence that
has only happened seven other times since 1980.
Although notable outliers are present, historically, this has been a
strong signal for markets. In fact, the S&P 500 never posted a
loss six- and twelve-months after.
Two macro things to watch this week would be Treasuries and
the US Dollar. TNX completed a bearish triangle on Friday and
the US Dollar is exhaling; each now tests key support levels.
Observations:
Equities ended higher after another busy week of earnings. The Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq gained 2%, 2.6%, and 3.3%, respectively, and returned to Point & Figure buy signals.This also led to several constructive moves from our technical indicators. The Positive Trend and Ten Week for the S&P 500 each reversed up into Xs to signal increased stock participation.Furthermore, the NYSE High Low reversed into X’s after reaching 10% or lower for a second consecutive time - an occurrence that has only happened seven other times since 1980.Although notable outliers are present, historically, this has been a strong signal for markets. In fact, the S&P 500 never posted a loss six- and twelve-months after.Two macro things to watch this week would be Treasuries and the US Dollar. TNX completed a bearish triangle on Friday and the US Dollar is exhaling; each now tests key support levels.
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| To: J.B.C. who wrote (34380) | 8/15/2022 12:40:19 PM | | From: J.B.C. | | | | For non-DWA subscribers:
Major domestic equity indices have risen sharply over the past few weeks, with the S&P 500 Index [SPX] rising over 10% over the last 30 days (through Thursday). This has seen many indicators point toward a risk-on posture and has caused some shifts in notable relative strength relationships. One of the classic RS relationships that we track is between SPX and our Money Market proxy [MNYMKT], which reversed back up into a column of X's on the 3.25% scale at the end of July. This chart moved lower into Os on February 23 and continued to fall through June. The upside participation in the core equity representative led the chart to reverse higher on July 29, and movement this Friday led the chart to add onto that movement with an additional X.
The continued improvement this week also led the S&P 500 to reverse back up into a column of X's on the 3.25% RS chart against the iShares US Core Bond ETF [AGG] following the movement on Thursday. This chart has seen a few reversals this year; it initially moved lower in March before reversing back into a column of Xs with the market rally at the end of that month. Keep in mind that the broad fixed income market was still experiencing enhanced weakness at that time. The chart then moved lower in May and fell to give a sell signal in June. However, the consistent rally in domestic equities has led SPX to reverse back up into a column of X's this week, adding to the improving relative strength picture for the core market benchmark.
It is important to keep in mind that investors with a broad equity focus are best served by not relying only on one RS chart or signal. Instead, consider how these RS changes shift the weight of the technical evidence for the name(s) you are examining. In this case, seeing the S&P 500 demonstrate RS improvement against the broad fixed income market confirms the prior strength demonstrated against cash and should be taken as a positive sign for further improvement.
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| To: Ditchdigger who wrote (34382) | 8/22/2022 4:36:03 PM | | From: J.B.C. | | | |
Observations:
Markets took a notable breather, causing the S&P 500 to snap its four-week winning streak as did the Nasdaq Composite.
The exhale appears healthy given the near-term frothiness. For example, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq each posted 70%+ readings on their weekly distribution curves for the first time since November of 2021.
Furthermore, the S&P 500 Index Funds group ranked in the 95th percentile against 135+ other groups for the first time since January, suggesting a domineering technical profile.
Also on our group scores page, the consumer discretionary average score has not overtaken consumer staples; in fact, the divergence between the two has widened. Note this is not usual for a material market recovery.
Something to watch outside equities is the US Treasury 10 YR Yield Index as it rose to give a fourth consecutive buy signal and reenter a positive trend at 2.975% last week.
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