| To: Gabriel008 who wrote (10) | 1/31/2006 1:31:19 PM | | From: Gabriel008 | | | | GOOG will definitely need $2 to move up & $1.90 to $2 to stay flat.
From all the data that I've seen I believe GOOG will grow revenues app. 35% from Q3 [and this is up from my earlier estimate of 31%]. And, revenues net of TAC should fall in the $1.45b range. Now, anecdotal evidence points to at least a 30% increase in expenses [R&D, S&M & G&A] from Q3.
Net net - $2.07 to $2.11 - my best guess! |
| | Google - No Soapbox | Stock Discussion ForumsShare | RecommendKeepReplyMark as Last Read |
|
| From: Gabriel008 | 2/1/2006 3:02:18 PM | | | | | | Looking at the financial data from Q4 vs the Comscore & Alexa numbers this is what I get;
Financials: GOOG Web Sites +24%
Network Sites +18%
Total Revenue +21.6%
Comscore Click Trends GOOG Web Sites +22.4%
Network Sites +14.4%
Average +17.6%
Alexa Overall +18.9%
[variance of 200 basis points either way]
We’ll continue to keep an eye on Alexa and use it to approximate GOOG’s revenues. We know that GOOG sites is becoming more important & should reflect between 58%-60% of total revenues in Q1. If Internet Stock Blog posts Comscore Click Trends again we can also use these stats – although they show Network sites as app 60% of clicks, the reverse of the revenue picture.
Since GOOG sites is growing as a % of total revenue TAC should continue to go down – probably 32% in Q1 from 32.8% in Q4. Total cost of revenue should be in the 39% to 40% range. |
| | Google - No Soapbox | Stock Discussion ForumsShare | RecommendKeepReplyMark as Last ReadRead Replies (1) |
|
| From: Gabriel008 | 2/1/2006 8:44:30 PM | | | | | | | GOOG management indicated they would not smooth out the earnings. Definitely no massaging last quarter [q4, 05]. This means we may have the same tax treatment in q4 06. Big CAVEAT. Factor this in if they are taking less than 30% in the first 3 q's of o6. |
| | Google - No Soapbox | Stock Discussion ForumsShare | RecommendKeepReplyMark as Last Read |
|
| From: Gabriel008 | 2/3/2006 1:02:51 PM | | | | | | Lots of news on this crappy down day. Too bad I didn't get my order filled on those cc's yesterday.
- GOOG developing car nav system w/nvidia for Volkswagen
- Sequoia reports decrease in stake in GOOG
- Bear Sterns removes GOOG from focus list |
| | Google - No Soapbox | Stock Discussion ForumsShare | RecommendKeepReplyMark as Last Read |
|
| To: Gabriel008 who wrote (12) | 2/6/2006 12:45:55 PM | | From: Gabriel008 | | | | We should keep an eye on Keyword prices as well. Fathom Online reported a 5% drop from Q3 to Q4. We should continue to see a drop in the post Xmas 1st quarter. And, this should be factored against Alxa's Reach & PV % increases from Q4.
Alexa, as of Feb 5, is +15% on Reach and +11% on PV's for an aggregate of +27.65%. Factoring out a 7% reduction in Keyword pricing I'll assume a 5% reduction in the 27.65% growth [assuming this holds for Feb & March - highly doubtful since the previous 3 months included November & December].
Therefore, 22.65% rev increase with a 32% TAC or $2.615B gross and $1.778B net revenue. Other COG 8%; Operating expenses 23%; Stock based comp 3%; Taxes 10% [30% rate]; and Avg shares outstanding 305mm. NAT Profit $627.4. EPS GAAP $2.06, EPS Non GAAP app $2.20-$2.25 vs a Reuters of $2.00 |
| | Google - No Soapbox | Stock Discussion ForumsShare | RecommendKeepReplyMark as Last ReadRead Replies (1) |
|
| From: Gabriel008 | 2/6/2006 2:10:25 PM | | | | | | S&P 500 Index May Search Out Google
Google (GOOG: Nasdaq)
By Bear Stearns ($381.55; Feb. 6, 2006)
WE THINK THAT IT IS HIGHLY LIKELY that Google will be added to the Standard & Poor's 500 index as it is the only one of the top four Internet companies (eBay, Yahoo and Amazon.com being the others) that has yet to be included.
Inclusion to the index should be a positive catalyst for Google's stock, as funds should be prompted to buy into the stock in order to track the S&P 500 index and keep their weightings in-line with it, as it is widely considered the benchmark for many funds.
We believe that Google meets all eight criteria for inclusion. However, we think that Standard & Poor's is weighing the percentage of Google's sector that is currently represented in the S&P 500, as well as whether Google's share price is reasonable.
[To be included in the index, U.S.-based operating companies must show adequate liquidity and a reasonable share price, four consecutive quarters of positive earnings, float of at least 50% of shares outstanding, and be an IPO seasoned for at least six to 12 months.]
For Google, we estimate demand of approximately 20 million shares from index funds, which represents about 1.5 days of volume and roughly 7% of Google shares outstanding. Hence, if the stock were to be included in the index, about 7% of Google stock would be locked in index capital, which we believe could reduce the trading supply of the stock.
Historically, stocks added to the S&P 500 posted median gains of nearly 7% and average gains of about 8.5% during the 30-day window following the announcement up to actual inclusion, which we believe reflects both speculative buying as well as physical demand for the stock from index funds.
Separately, listings on Google Base rose 4% last week to 16 million with about 96% of the listings spread across four categories: products, vehicles, jobs and housing. We continue to believe that investors as well as management of "Walled Gardens" or paid listings sites should pay attention to the growth of those categories in Google Base as it could potentially disrupt their business models.
Amazon was the most recent Internet stock to be added to the index, replacing AT&T, which was acquired by SBC. The stock was added to the index on Nov. 21, 2005 (announcement made on Nov. 14). Amazon's stock rose 5% the day after the announcement was made.
We think that S&P 500 inclusion is likely providing a support level for Amazon's stock in the $37-to-$38 range, after what some believed were disappointing fourth-quarter earnings. Likewise, we believe that S&P 500 inclusion should provide support levels for Google's stock.
-- Robert S. Peck
online.barrons.com |
| | Google - No Soapbox | Stock Discussion ForumsShare | RecommendKeepReplyMark as Last Read |
|
| To: Gabriel008 who wrote (16) | 2/6/2006 2:46:33 PM | | From: Gabriel008 | | | | Error on the EPS calcs.
Revenue 100% $2366
TAC 32% $757
Other COG 8%
R&D 8%
Sales/Marketing 8%
G & A 6%
Operating Expenses 22% $520
Stock based Comp $60
Taxes $237 [30% rate or 10% of gross revenue]
Diluted shares 309mm
EPS GAAP $2.15
Non GAAP $2.34 |
| | Google - No Soapbox | Stock Discussion ForumsShare | RecommendKeepReplyMark as Last ReadRead Replies (1) |
|
| To: Gabriel008 who wrote (18) | 2/8/2006 11:05:18 AM | | From: Gabriel008 | | | | | GOOG's cumulative November, December January 3 month search growth versus August, September and October search stats is 28%. YHOO's by comparison is 1.5% and MSN is a heady 11.7%. These stats comprise PV's and Reach. Nothing on Keyword prices yet but I expect further deterioration - possibly as much as 7% in the 1st quarter. |
| | Google - No Soapbox | Stock Discussion ForumsShare | RecommendKeepReplyMark as Last Read |
|
| From: Gabriel008 | 2/15/2006 2:36:05 PM | | | | | | We’ve questioned Alexa stats in terms of how accurately it represents growth in the search universe and by extension how closely it captures quarterly revenue growth. I’ve been monitoring Alexa for a while and compared its calculation of GOOG, YHOO and MSN growth in the Q3 to Q4 2005 period versus the Comscore Click Trends data for the same period.
Alexa Comscore
GOOG 18.9% 17.6%
YHOO 0.7% -1.6%
MSN n/a -21.9%
It appears that Alexa’s universe of users is large enough to statistically represent the entire search universe.
Now, if we look at the first 45 days of usage for the new year within Alexa we find search growth versus Q4 as follows;
GOOG 28.7%
YHOO 2.5%
MSN 12.7%
I’ve extrapolated the current numbers for the balance of February and March. These indicate that GOOG will grow search 32% over Q4. The issues to ponder are;
- Calculation of revenue based on these search numbers and how has keyword pricing done in Q1 versus Q4
- Split between GOOG sites & network
If YHOO holds to a 2.5% growth in Q1 we may see a 15% increase in revenue vs Q4. That’s assuming that keyword prices are approximately the same as in Q4. |
| | Google - No Soapbox | Stock Discussion ForumsShare | RecommendKeepReplyMark as Last Read |
|
| |
