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   Strategies & Market TrendsPicks of the quarter


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To: Jatin Kadakia who wrote (2911)3/29/2007 1:20:00 AM
From: Elroy
   of 20435
 
I personally think we should not allow 100% cash at any time.

Why? I think holding all cash is a good way to reflect a bearish view of the market. And since we can sell mid-month but only buy at the end of the month, we've gotta have at least some cash allowed. It also encourages people to try to time the market, and totally screw up!

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To: Elroy who wrote (2914)3/29/2007 1:24:53 AM
From: Elroy
   of 20435
 
OK, the current game ends this Friday, with first (Iktomi) and last (madharry) place looking pretty set in their positions. I don't work on Fridays, so the final results will be posted late Saturday night US time (my Sunday morning).

The next game will begin based on next Monday's closing prices, so get your allocation of the initial $100 in before Monday's close. And remember, you can short one stock now, so the allocation could look something like this:

Buy $20 stock A
Buy $30 stock B
Short $500 stock C

Maximum number of stocks = 5, and they should be US major exchange listed stocks, not ETFs or mutual funds or indexes or pinko sheets....

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To: Elroy who wrote (2913)3/29/2007 5:02:19 AM
From: Taro
   of 20435
 
Not for long though ;)

Taro

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To: Jatin Kadakia who wrote (2911)3/29/2007 5:04:51 AM
From: Taro
   of 20435
 
I guess that our cash OK rule was made thinking of "normal circumstances" where one doesn't win without taking a risk - and sitting in cash can hardly be considered risky.

Taro

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To: Jatin Kadakia who wrote (2911)3/29/2007 5:09:37 AM
From: Taro
   of 20435
 
...and thanks for the nice words, Jatin.
I also wonder what keeps such bastards alive.

Taro

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To: Elroy who wrote (2915)3/29/2007 7:28:51 AM
From: steve harris
   of 20435
 
Sweet.

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To: Elroy who wrote (2915)3/29/2007 7:38:37 AM
From: Taro
   of 20435
 
Any max value of the shorted stock? We have to be careful to avoid a possible conflict with our 100$ portfolio rule and may possibly have to add language to avoid that.

Taro

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To: Taro who wrote (2920)3/29/2007 9:06:39 AM
From: Sr K
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$50 (not $500) at inception and 50% when put on. If it goes up, it can be 90% or even over 100% (portfolio can drop to $70 and short could be $80 or 114%).

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To: Taro who wrote (2920)3/29/2007 9:56:01 AM
From: Elroy
   of 20435
 
Good point. Lets say since shorting is a new idea for the competition, you can at most short $25 of a stock on the initial order.

Actually, I don't know - $25 seems fine to me, if anybody has other views, go ahead and express them.

Hmmmmm - since dividends are not counted on upside or downside, we should make some rule that you cannot short stocks which (during the competition period) have a dividend payout of more than 3%. That's ~10% for the full year, so should exclude most stocks. But we want to avoid people gaming the system to capture price losses which result from dividend payments.

In theory, people should only short stocks because they think the share value will decline for some fundamental reason, not as a result of that stock's dividend payments. Shorting to benefit from dividend payments will be declared slimey maneuvering, and disallowed extremely retroactively!

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To: Sr K who wrote (2921)3/29/2007 9:57:52 AM
From: Elroy
   of 20435
 
Fair enough - since we can only put 50% into one stock, lets make the maximum short % of portfolio 50% of the investors then capital.

So if you have $120 in capital you can short of up $60 in one stock. If you have $70 in capital (hello.....madharry!) you can short $35.

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