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   Technology StocksSilicon Motion Inc. (SIMO)

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From: Elroy7/4/2019 5:06:58 AM
   of 2561
Lets hope open channel becomes a significant portion of Ali Babba cloud infrastructure....

Worldwide public cloud services spending to more than double by 2023, says IDC
Joseph Tsai, DIGITIMES, Taipei
Thursday 4 July 2019

Worldwide spending on public cloud services and infrastructure will more than double over the 2019-2023 forecast period, according to IDC. With a five-year compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 22.3%, public cloud spending will grow from US$229 billion in 2019 to nearly US$500 billion in 2023.

"Adoption of public (shared) cloud services continues to grow rapidly as enterprises, especially in professional services, telecommunications, and retail, continue to shift from traditional application software to software as a service (SaaS) and from traditional infrastructure to infrastructure as a service (IaaS) to empower customer experience and operational-led digital transformation (DX) initiatives," said Eileen Smith, program director, Customer Insights and Analysis.

Software as a Service (SaaS) will be the largest category of cloud computing, capturing more than half of all public cloud spending throughout the forecast period. SaaS spending, which is comprised of applications and system infrastructure software (SIS), will be dominated by applications purchases. The leading SaaS applications will be customer relationship management (CRM) and enterprise resource management (ERM). SIS spending will be led by purchases of security software and system and service management software.

Infrastructure as a Service (IaaS) will be the second largest category of public cloud spending throughout the forecast, followed by Platform as a Service (PaaS). IaaS spending, comprised of servers and storage devices, will also be the fastest growing category of cloud spending with a five-year CAGR of 32%. PaaS spending will grow nearly as fast at 29.9% CAGR, led by purchases of data management software, application platforms, and integration and orchestration middleware.

Three industries - professional services, discrete manufacturing, and banking - will account for more than one third of all public cloud services spending throughout the forecast. While SaaS will be the leading category of investment for all industries, IaaS will see its share of spending increase significantly for industries that are building data and compute intensive services. For example, IaaS spending will represent more than 40% of public cloud services spending by the professional services industry in 2023 compared to less than 30% for most other industries. Professional services will also see the fastest growth in public cloud spending with a five-year CAGR of 25.6%.

On a geographic basis, the US will be the largest public cloud services market, accounting for more than half the worldwide total through 2023. Western Europe will be the second largest market with nearly 20% of the worldwide total. China will experience the fastest growth in public cloud services spending over the five-year forecast period with a 49.1% CAGR. Latin America will also deliver strong public cloud spending growth with a 38.3% CAGR.

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From: Elroy7/8/2019 12:11:55 AM
   of 2561
SIMO will probably release preliminary Q2 revenue and gross margins Monday morning.

Revenues were forecast to be between $98m and $107m. Lets see what comes out!

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To: Elroy who wrote (2069)7/8/2019 11:04:20 AM
From: franklin1
   of 2561
Silicon Motion Announces Preliminary Second Quarter 2019 Revenue and Earnings Conference Call Details
Mon July 8, 2019 8:00 AM|GlobeNewswire|About: SIMO

TAIPEI, Taiwan and MILPITAS, Calif., July 08, 2019 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Silicon Motion Technology Corporation ( SIMO)(“Silicon Motion” or the “Company”), a global leader in NAND flash controllers for solid state storage devices, announces that based on its preliminary second quarter financial results, revenue (non-GAAP) is expected to be within 4% below the low-end of the original guidance range of $98 million to $107 million that the company issued on May 3, 2019. Gross margin (non-GAAP) is expected to be within 100 basis points above the high-end of the company's original guidance range of 48.5% to 50.5%.

The Company will release its second quarter 2019 financial results after the market closes on July 30, 2019 and will host a conference call on July 31 at 8:00 a.m. Eastern Time.

Wallace Kou, President & CEO
Riyadh Lai, CFO

USA (Toll Free):1 866 519 4004
USA (Toll):1 845 675 0437
Taiwan (Toll Free):080 909 1568
Participant Passcode:4865285
REPLAY NUMBERS (for 7 days):
USA (Toll Free):1 855 452 5696
USA (Toll):1 646 254 3697
Participant Passcode:4865285
This call will be webcasted on the Company’s website at

We are the global leader in supplying NAND flash controllers for solid state storage devices and the merchant leader in supplying SSD controllers. We have the broadest portfolio of controller technologies and our controllers are widely used in embedded storage products such as SSDs and eMMC+UFS devices, which are found in smartphones, PCs and commercial and industrial applications. We have shipped over six billion NAND controllers in the last ten years, more than any other company in the world. We also supply customized high-performance hyperscale data center and industrial SSD solutions. Our customers include most of the NAND flash vendors, storage device module makers and leading OEMs. For further information on Silicon Motion, visit us at

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To: franklin1 who wrote (2070)7/14/2019 5:24:16 AM
From: Elroy
   of 2561
Looks like Q2 revenues are a bit below expectations, while Q2 gross margins a bit above.....

Here's the key sentence from the Q1 press release:

For full-year 2019, management believes it is likely that GAAP and Non-GAAP Revenue could be approximately similar to 2018 and Gross Margin and Operating Margin to be approximately similar to the prior year if product mix remains unchanged.

How H2 plays out remains a mystery. Guidance for Q3 will be interesting.

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From: Elroy7/15/2019 6:41:14 AM
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Phison is the largest competitor for SIMO in merchant SSD controllers. Toshiba is often a Phison customer.

Phison sales stay flat in June
Naomi Zhang, Taipei; Steve Shen, DIGITIMES
Friday 12 July 2019

Flash controller IC supplier Phison Electronics has reported revenues of NT$3.344 billion (US$107.72 million) for June, down 0.3% both from a month and a year earlier.

For the first half of 2019, revenues totaled NT$19.126 billion, decreasing 2.56% from a year earlier.

In June, the company's shipments of memory module products grew 6.35% on year, and SSD and eMMC products surged 67%, with SSD controller chips alone expanding at a rate of 93%.

The company is optimistic about its business outlook for the second half of 2019 thanks to stabilizing NAND flash prices, according to company sources.

NAND flash prices are actually rebounding as device vendors have begun to scramble for NAND flash chips recently because some chipmaker have tightened their supplies and rising trade tensions have added uncertainty to the market, said the sources.

Meanwhile, demand for the company's recently released high-margin controller chips, including PS5016-E16 PCIc 4.0 SSD controllers, has been strong, which help maintain its sales momentum in the second half, said the sources.

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From: Elroy7/16/2019 6:11:57 AM
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Memory modules makers mulling 10-15% hike on SSD prices
Siu Han, Taipei; Willis Ke, DIGITIMES
Tuesday 16 July 2019

Taiwan memory modules makers including Adata Technology, Phison Electronics and Team Group are mulling a 10-15% hike in SSD prices and enforcing a limited-supply policy amid growing expectations that both NAND flash and DRAM chip prices may rebound...

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From: Elroy7/25/2019 11:17:44 PM
   of 2561
Tidbits from INTC's Q2 conference call

Our Q2 operating margin was 31%, down two points as client ASP strength was more than offset by platform volume declines and continued NAND pricing degradation.

Now let's talk about the full year outlook. For the full year, the market dynamics reflected in our April guide remain largely in place, although, memory has continued to weaken relative to our expectations.

We are increasing our revenue outlook for the full year by $500 million to $69.5 billion to reflect the out performance in the second quarter, somewhat offset by the effect of trade-related pull-ins and a weaker memory environment.

our expectations have been and still are that cloud will get a little bit stronger as we go into the second half.

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From: Elroy7/31/2019 6:56:05 AM
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SIMO reported last night, and gave tepid guidance, lowering full year 2019 sales guidance from $500m to $415m.

The good : not much! EMMC/UFS did well growing 20% over an awful Q1, and client SSD grew 15%. Oddly, NAND makers were strong in client SSD while module makers were weak. I expected the opposite. Open channel SSDs are in production at Ali Babba. Q4 is supposed to have sales up from Q3 by a healthy amount, so the trajectory into 2020 may be strong. Lotsa cash on the balance sheet, more than ten bucks per share, and no debt.

The bad: lotsa crap. Shannon declined 40% in Q2 after declining 40% in Q1. I guess it’s almost gone! For client SSDs in H2 2019 they say shipments will grow faster than sales, which means price per unit is declining, which may mean they are selling older cheaper legacy models and fewer new state of art expensive models. Bad for the future. Gross margins forecast to decline from here, that sucks. Open channel SSDs are in production, but the total sales outlook remains weak, so this segment is perhaps too small to move the needle. The Shannon business is so bad they had to write down inventory, and will probably write down all the goodwill associated with the acquisition. It’s small enough now that who cares?

The strange: no word on the new office building that they are supposed to be building. Why not? It’s a big expenditure, amend was announced 10 months ago. The long term revenue outlook for almost ALL SIMO business lines now is uncertain, but the shares are cheap and cash rich. Seems like a dog, but revenues are expected to rise in Q3 and rise again in Q4, so it could be worse. Stock probably goes nowhere, they continue to pay a dividend, be profitable, maybe get acquired, or maybe some product area (Shannon? Enterprise SSDs? client SSDs? ) drives modest 2020 growth? Who knows? Zero confidence in the future with SIMO at this point.....but most segments have collapsed already so it’s hard for them to fall off a cliff from the canyon floor.

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To: Elroy who wrote (2075)8/1/2019 2:58:52 AM
From: Elroy
1 Recommendation   of 2561
Hmmm, after hearing the conference call the outlook is better than I expected. Everything is forecast to grow in 2020, and gross margins are forecast to improve from crap H2 2019 levels. Increasing revenues AND gross margins sounds awesome. Going to be a tough few months, but 2020 is close enough that might as well wait.

The only sketchy segment is Shannon, the rest are more positive than my initial take. I can see SIMO at $50 a year from now, so might as well sit and wait (again....).

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To: Elroy who wrote (2076)8/11/2019 7:33:50 AM
From: Elroy
   of 2561
In the Oppenheimer presentation (aug6) the CFO said that they have a decent chance to get Samsung as a client SSD controller customer in 2020. That would be nice....

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