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   Technology StocksSilicon Motion Inc. (SIMO)


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From: Elroy6/20/2019 2:19:23 AM
   of 2085
 
Uncertainties in the Market Rise while a Bounce in NAND Flash Prices Remains Unlikely in 3Q, Says TrendForce


dramexchange.com

Uncertainties in the Market Rise while a Bounce in NAND Flash Prices Remains Unlikely in 3Q, Says TrendForce

According to the latest investigations by DRAMeXchange, a division of TrendForce, demand for smartphones and servers go below expected levels in 2019 as the US-China trade dispute heats up. Adding the CPU shortage, which continues to haunt notebook shipments, we may see the shipments of eMMC/UFSs, SSDs etc. failing to meet expectations for peak season 3Q, and cause contract prices to fall uncontrollably.

OEMs focused on de-stocking for various products with a rather weak re-stocking momentum in 1H19. The average NAND flash contract price has already fallen by nearly 20% QoQ for two quarters straight, and disappointed market expectations of a rebound which was supposed to result from price elasticity. TrendForce asserts that despite international tensions and other unfavorable factors, demand will still see improvements in 3Q looking forward, and the decline in contract prices may see a shrink. But a rebound in contract prices will prove veritably difficult thanks to the incomplete clearing of suppliers' inventories and an uneventful dip in shipments expected for 2H.

For eMMC/UFSs and SSDs, which form the market mainstream, smartphone and notebook PC vendors are expected to gain stocking momentum in 3Q, which, along with the large price adjustments in the first two quarters, will narrow the decline of contract prices from that of the previous two quarters to about 10% QoQ. For production processes, 64/72-layer 3D NAND processes still are mainstream for eMMC/UFSs, whose market mainly consists of mobile devices, whereas 92/96-layer 3D NAND processes find wider visibility in Client SSDs and help alleviate costs.

As for wafer contract prices seen in marketing channels, the prices settled on are currently closing in on cash costs, causing reluctance on the side of suppliers to drive down prices any further. Thus we see priority being strategically given to eMMC/UFS and SSD products in negotiations, with any action towards wafer contract prices withheld unless inventory pressure becomes unbearable. Some suppliers even hope to bring 256Gb products back up to profitable prices. TrendForce suggests that wafer prices are unlikely to make a comeback due to the weakening market, but the declines for the months to come are expected to remain within 5% QoQ.

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From: Elroy6/25/2019 6:40:07 AM
   of 2085
 
Uncertainties in the Market Rise while a Bounce in NAND Flash Prices Remains Unlikely in 3Q, Says TrendForce




https://www.dramexchange.com/WeeklyResearch/Post/2/7330.html





According to the latest investigations by DRAMeXchange, a division of TrendForce, demand for smartphones and servers go below expected levels in 2019 as the US-China trade dispute heats up. Adding the CPU shortage, which continues to haunt notebook shipments, we may see the shipments of eMMC/UFSs, SSDs etc. failing to meet expectations for peak season 3Q, and cause contract prices to fall uncontrollably.

OEMs focused on de-stocking for various products with a rather weak re-stocking momentum in 1H19. The average NAND flash contract price has already fallen by nearly 20% QoQ for two quarters straight, and disappointed market expectations of a rebound which was supposed to result from price elasticity. TrendForce asserts that despite international tensions and other unfavorable factors, demand will still see improvements in 3Q looking forward, and the decline in contract prices may see a shrink. But a rebound in contract prices will prove veritably difficult thanks to the incomplete clearing of suppliers' inventories and an uneventful dip in shipments expected for 2H.

For eMMC/UFSs and SSDs, which form the market mainstream, smartphone and notebook PC vendors are expected to gain stocking momentum in 3Q, which, along with the large price adjustments in the first two quarters, will narrow the decline of contract prices from that of the previous two quarters to about 10% QoQ. For production processes, 64/72-layer 3D NAND processes still are mainstream for eMMC/UFSs, whose market mainly consists of mobile devices, whereas 92/96-layer 3D NAND processes find wider visibility in Client SSDs and help alleviate costs.

As for wafer contract prices seen in marketing channels, the prices settled on are currently closing in on cash costs, causing reluctance on the side of suppliers to drive down prices any further. Thus we see priority being strategically given to eMMC/UFS and SSD products in negotiations, with any action towards wafer contract prices withheld unless inventory pressure becomes unbearable. Some suppliers even hope to bring 256Gb products back up to profitable prices. TrendForce suggests that wafer prices are unlikely to make a comeback due to the weakening market, but the declines for the months to come are expected to remain within 5% QoQ.

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From: Elroy6/25/2019 8:08:51 PM
   of 2085
 
Some tidbits from MU's conference call

investors.micron.com

Over the last few months, customer inventory improvements have progressed largely in line with our expectations in most end markets. NAND bit demand is also increasing in most markets as elasticity kicks in, in response to price declines over the last year.

Even as customer inventory levels of DRAM and NAND improve across most end markets, producer inventory levels are elevated.

We made further progress in strengthening our SSD portfolio with the launch of our 9300 data center NVMe SSDs for cloud and enterprise markets. We more than doubled revenue shipments of our new NVMe client SSD to large PC Micron Technology, Inc. Fiscal Q3 2019 Earnings Call Prepared Remarks © 2019 Micron Technology, Inc. 3 June 25, 2019 OEMs, and more customer qualifications are in progress. As a reminder, this new NVME drive is built with our own controller technology.

QLC SSD bit shipments increased approximately 75% sequentially, driven by growth of our consumer NVMe SSDs. This is probably SIMO's controller.

Within the data center market, cloud customers are turning the corner on inventories, and most are approaching normal inventory levels.

While we still believe the NAND industry supply is growing above demand this year, the market is showing signs of increased elasticity stemming from recent price declines. We are optimistic that the overall NAND market will start to stabilize in the second half of calendar 2019.

Overall NAND ASPs declined in the mid-teens percent range, while shipment quantities declined in the mid-single-digit percent range compared to the prior quarter. Adjusting for the Huawei impact, bit shipments came in better than our expectation due to stronger component sales.

Inventory ended the quarter at $4.9 billion, increasing from $4.4 billion at the end of FQ2.

In NAND, while the industry is benefitting from elasticity kicking in, our bit shipment growth in FQ4 will be limited due to the ongoing transition of our SSD portfolio.

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From: Elroy6/26/2019 12:01:59 AM
   of 2085
 
some tidbits from the MU Q&A.

one of the big drivers of our increased inventory level is in NAND. And that is kind of by design for us. We are trying to build up some inventory going into 2020, fiscal 2020 for us because we are going to make this transition to replacement gate. Replacement gate doesn't drive very much bit growth for us in the first node in replacement gate. And so, we'll need to draw on our inventory in order to meet demand, and that's – I don't know the exact number, but that's a decent chunk of the [overage] in terms of days.

from a kind of an obsolescence perspective, we don't see really any risk with the inventory we're carrying.

We think it's very good inventory, it got a good cost position, very good demand with that inventory. So, unlikely to have any issue as it relates to obsolescence. The other of course area, you have to concern yourself with is the, any sort of lower cost to market issue with the inventory. I think you can kind of guess by the quality of our gross margins that we are not really in danger of having any write-down associated with lower cost to market. So, outside of these kind of one-off issues that we deal with from time to time, like we did with Huawei this quarter I don't really see a big issue with inventory in terms of write-downs or reserves.

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From: Elroy6/26/2019 3:10:53 AM
   of 2085
 

Micron to cut further NAND flash output
Jessie Shen, DIGITIMES, Taipei
Wednesday 26 June 2019



digitimes.com


Micron Technology has reiterated plans to idle up to 5% of DRAM wafer starts in 2019, but said the company will reduce its total NAND flash wafer starts by a larger 10% compared to the previously-planned 5% cut.

Micron saw its DRAM ASPs fall 20% sequentially in its third quarter of fiscal 2019, which ended May 30, while NAND flash ASPs were down in the mid-teens. The company saw its total revenues decline 18% sequentially and 39% on year to US$4.8 billion, which came in line with its guidance.

Micron saw its DRAM revenues decrease 19% on quarter and 45% from a year earlier to account for 64% of the total fiscal third-quarter revenues, while NAND revenues slipped 18% sequentially and 25% on year to account for 31% of revenues.

"Both DRAM and NAND revenue were negatively impacted by restriction on sales to Huawei, without which we would have reached the high end of our revenue guidance," said Micron CFO Dave Zinsner during a conference call on June 25.

Nevertheless, Micron disclosed that it has in the past two weeks resumed "lawfully" shipments for some Huawei orders that are not subject to the trade restrictions.

Micron posted net income of US$1.2 billion in its fiscal third-quarter 2019, with non-GAAP earnings per share reaching US$1.05 compared with US$3.15 in the year-ago quarter and US$1.71 in the prior quarter.

Looking into the fiscal fourth-quarter 2019, Micron expects revenues to be in the range of US$4.5 billion, plus or minus US$200 million, with gross margin ranging from 27.5% to 30.5% compared with 39% in the previous quarter. EPS for the quarter is estimated at US$0.45, plus or minus US$0.07.

In addition, Micron revised downward its capex target for fiscal 2019 to approximately US$9 billion from the US$10.5 billion set previously. And for fiscal 2020, the company expects capex to be "meaningfully lower" than the year-ago levels. "Further cuts in capex and bit supply will be required to return the industry to a healthy supply-demand balance," according to company CEO Sanjay Mehrotra.



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From: Elroy6/26/2019 5:59:41 AM
   of 2085
 

SK Hynix kicks off 128-layer 4D NAND manufacturing
Jessie Shen, DIGITIMES, Taipei
Wednesday 26 June 2019



digitimes.com


SK Hynix has announced what the company claims is the world's first 128-layer 1-terabit triple-level cell (1Tb TLC) 4D NAND flash memory, with mass production kicking off.

SK Hynix indicated its 128-layer 1Tb NAND chip offers the industry's highest vertical stacking with more than 360 billion NAND cells, each of which stores three bits, per chip.

A number of companies have developed 1Tb quad-level cell (QLC) NAND products, but SK Hynix claimed it is the first to commercialize 1Tb TLC NAND flash. TLC accounts for more than 85% of the NAND flash market.

SK Hynix will start shipping 128-layer 4D NAND flash in the second half of 2019, according to the company.

SK Hynix also disclosed plans to develop the next-generation UFS 3.1 product in the first half of 2020 for major flagship smartphone customers. With 128-layer 1Tb NAND flash, the number of NAND chips necessary for a 1TB (Terabyte) product, currently the largest capacity for a smartphone, will be reduced by half, compared to 512Gb NAND; it will provide customers with a mobile solution with 20% less power consumption in a 1mm-thin package.

In addition, SK Hynix intends to enter mass production of 2TB client SSDs with in-house developed controller and software in the first half of 2020, the company said. It added 16TB and 32TB NVMe SSDs for cloud data centers will also be released next year.

SK Hynix said it is developing the next-generation 176-layer 4D NAND flash.



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From: Elroy7/4/2019 5:06:58 AM
   of 2085
 
Lets hope open channel becomes a significant portion of Ali Babba cloud infrastructure....


Worldwide public cloud services spending to more than double by 2023, says IDC
Joseph Tsai, DIGITIMES, Taipei
Thursday 4 July 2019



digitimes.com


Worldwide spending on public cloud services and infrastructure will more than double over the 2019-2023 forecast period, according to IDC. With a five-year compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 22.3%, public cloud spending will grow from US$229 billion in 2019 to nearly US$500 billion in 2023.

"Adoption of public (shared) cloud services continues to grow rapidly as enterprises, especially in professional services, telecommunications, and retail, continue to shift from traditional application software to software as a service (SaaS) and from traditional infrastructure to infrastructure as a service (IaaS) to empower customer experience and operational-led digital transformation (DX) initiatives," said Eileen Smith, program director, Customer Insights and Analysis.

Software as a Service (SaaS) will be the largest category of cloud computing, capturing more than half of all public cloud spending throughout the forecast period. SaaS spending, which is comprised of applications and system infrastructure software (SIS), will be dominated by applications purchases. The leading SaaS applications will be customer relationship management (CRM) and enterprise resource management (ERM). SIS spending will be led by purchases of security software and system and service management software.

Infrastructure as a Service (IaaS) will be the second largest category of public cloud spending throughout the forecast, followed by Platform as a Service (PaaS). IaaS spending, comprised of servers and storage devices, will also be the fastest growing category of cloud spending with a five-year CAGR of 32%. PaaS spending will grow nearly as fast at 29.9% CAGR, led by purchases of data management software, application platforms, and integration and orchestration middleware.

Three industries - professional services, discrete manufacturing, and banking - will account for more than one third of all public cloud services spending throughout the forecast. While SaaS will be the leading category of investment for all industries, IaaS will see its share of spending increase significantly for industries that are building data and compute intensive services. For example, IaaS spending will represent more than 40% of public cloud services spending by the professional services industry in 2023 compared to less than 30% for most other industries. Professional services will also see the fastest growth in public cloud spending with a five-year CAGR of 25.6%.

On a geographic basis, the US will be the largest public cloud services market, accounting for more than half the worldwide total through 2023. Western Europe will be the second largest market with nearly 20% of the worldwide total. China will experience the fastest growth in public cloud services spending over the five-year forecast period with a 49.1% CAGR. Latin America will also deliver strong public cloud spending growth with a 38.3% CAGR.



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From: Elroy7/8/2019 12:11:55 AM
   of 2085
 
SIMO will probably release preliminary Q2 revenue and gross margins Monday morning.

Revenues were forecast to be between $98m and $107m. Lets see what comes out!

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To: Elroy who wrote (2069)7/8/2019 11:04:20 AM
From: franklin1
   of 2085
 
Silicon Motion Announces Preliminary Second Quarter 2019 Revenue and Earnings Conference Call Details
Mon July 8, 2019 8:00 AM|GlobeNewswire|About: SIMO

TAIPEI, Taiwan and MILPITAS, Calif., July 08, 2019 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Silicon Motion Technology Corporation ( SIMO)(“Silicon Motion” or the “Company”), a global leader in NAND flash controllers for solid state storage devices, announces that based on its preliminary second quarter financial results, revenue (non-GAAP) is expected to be within 4% below the low-end of the original guidance range of $98 million to $107 million that the company issued on May 3, 2019. Gross margin (non-GAAP) is expected to be within 100 basis points above the high-end of the company's original guidance range of 48.5% to 50.5%.

The Company will release its second quarter 2019 financial results after the market closes on July 30, 2019 and will host a conference call on July 31 at 8:00 a.m. Eastern Time.

(Speakers)
Wallace Kou, President & CEO
Riyadh Lai, CFO

CONFERENCE CALL ACCESS NUMBERS:
USA (Toll Free):1 866 519 4004
USA (Toll):1 845 675 0437
Taiwan (Toll Free):080 909 1568
Participant Passcode:4865285
REPLAY NUMBERS (for 7 days):
USA (Toll Free):1 855 452 5696
USA (Toll):1 646 254 3697
Participant Passcode:4865285
This call will be webcasted on the Company’s website at www.siliconmotion.com.

ABOUT SILICON MOTION:
We are the global leader in supplying NAND flash controllers for solid state storage devices and the merchant leader in supplying SSD controllers. We have the broadest portfolio of controller technologies and our controllers are widely used in embedded storage products such as SSDs and eMMC+UFS devices, which are found in smartphones, PCs and commercial and industrial applications. We have shipped over six billion NAND controllers in the last ten years, more than any other company in the world. We also supply customized high-performance hyperscale data center and industrial SSD solutions. Our customers include most of the NAND flash vendors, storage device module makers and leading OEMs. For further information on Silicon Motion, visit us at www.siliconmotion.com.

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To: franklin1 who wrote (2070)7/14/2019 5:24:16 AM
From: Elroy
   of 2085
 
Looks like Q2 revenues are a bit below expectations, while Q2 gross margins a bit above.....

Here's the key sentence from the Q1 press release:

For full-year 2019, management believes it is likely that GAAP and Non-GAAP Revenue could be approximately similar to 2018 and Gross Margin and Operating Margin to be approximately similar to the prior year if product mix remains unchanged.


How H2 plays out remains a mystery. Guidance for Q3 will be interesting.

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